Boom Doom Economy: USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Rise Above 400,000 (Charts) *4-week average at 7-week high*

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United States Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

*** Updated April 14, 2011 for the week ended April 9, 2011 Claims ***

Official Statement by the US Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted Data) In the week ending April 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 412,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 385,000. The 4-week moving average was 395,750, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 390,250. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending April 2, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.0 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 2 was 3,680,000, a decrease of 58,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,738,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,728,750, a decrease of 20,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,749,500.

Trend The short-term trend is upwards while the intermediate and long term trends continue downwards. The current weekly unemployment claims (preliminary) are above 400,000 for the first time since the week ended March 5, 2011.

Cycle History USA weekly unemployment claims reached a Great Recession cyclical peak of 651,000 for the week ended March 28, 2009. A Post-Great Recession cyclical low of 371,000 was set for the week ended February 26, 2011.

4-Week Moving Average (Chart) The chart below shows the 4-week moving average from the week ended August 21, 2010 through the latest week reported. The week ended August 21, 2010 was an intermediate term peak of 488,000. The overall trend had been downwards since this intermediate term peak. The 4-week moving average is considered a better, smoother measure of trend. The 4-week moving average continues both intermediate and long term downtrends. The Great Recession cyclical peak was 643,000 for the week ended April 4, 2009 and the Post-Great Recession cyclical low has been 388,500 for the week ended March 12, 2011.

Weekly Unemployment Claims (Chart) The chart below shows the total weekly unemployment claims from the week ended August 14, 2010 through the latest week reported. A general decline in claims had been indicated, with an intermediate peak of 504,000 reached for the week ended August 14, 2010, the beginning of the chart.

Commentary The latest weekly unemployment claims (preliminary) is the first time above 400,000 since the week ended March 5, 2011. The current claims (preliminary) is above the Post-Great Recession cyclical low of 371,000 for the week ended February 26, 2011. The 4-week moving average (preliminary) is above the Post-Great Recession cyclical low of 388,500 for the week ended March 12, 2011. The short term is upwards and the intermediate term and long term trends continue downwards. Claims at 500,000 level is a benchmark, as is the 400,000 level.

Weekly claims first dropped below 500,000 in this Great Recession Cycle for the week ended November 21, 2009 at 477,000. Weekly claims have been below 500,000 since November 21, 2009 with only one exception (504,000 for the week ended August 14, 2010). Claims over 500,000 clearly indicate GDP growth is slowing, if not stalling or contracting, while claims less than 400,000 indicate an economic expansion is underway. Hence the uncertainty over the pace and strength of the USA economic recovery had been heightened as weekly unemployment claims had generally stayed in the mid-400,000s range until recently. Weekly unemployment claims have been 400,000 for 7 of the past 10 weeks, indicating a stronger economic expansion and GDP for the beginning of 2011.

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