Friday, April 8, 2011

USA Weekly Leading Index Surges to 48-Week High! (Charts) *Annualized growth rate rises to +6.7%*


ECRI Economic Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate
*** Updated April 8, 2011 for the week ended April 1, 2011 ***

Weekly Leading Index

Overview The USA Economic Weekly Leading Index (WLI) was up +1.2 to 131.2 (preliminary) for the week ended April 1, 2011. This is the highest since the week ending May 10, 2010 (132.0) and a 48-week high.

Trend The Weekly Leading Index (preliminary) increased for the latest week and continues intermediate and long term uptrends. The Weekly Leading Index:
● Is above the slightly ascending 13-week moving average of 129.6 and has been for 30 of the past 31 weeks.
● Continues above the ascending 26-week moving average of 127.5 for 23 consecutive weeks.
● Continues above the level 52-week moving average of 125.9 for 18 consecutive weeks.
● (The 13-week, 26-week, and 52-week moving averages charts are not shown on this page).

Cycle History The Weekly Leading Index reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010. A Great Recession low of 105.4 was set for the week ended March 6, 2009.

Weekly Leading Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, from the cyclical peak 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported.

Annualized Growth Rate

Overview The WLI Annualized Growth Rate (AGR) was up +0.2% to +6.7% (preliminary) for the week ended April 1, 2011. The Annualized Growth Rate has increased or held steady 33 weeks in the past 36 weeks.

Trend The Annualized Growth Rate has been on a steady uptrend and has increased or held steady for 29 of the past 31 weeks. This was after 12 consecutive weekly declines from the week ended May 7, 2010 to the week ended July 23, 2010.

Cycle History The Annualized Growth Rate reached a Post-Great Recession peak of +27.8% for he week ended October 9, 2009. A Great Recession low of -29.8% was set for the week ended December 5, 2008.

Annualized Growth Rate (Chart) Below is a chart of ECRI WLI Annualized Growth Rate, from the Weekly Leading Index cyclical peak for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported. A negative growth % was reached in early June 2010, remained negative for 28 consecutive weeks until the past 16 weeks.

Commentary The Annualized Growth Rate at +6.7% (preliminary) is a welcome 2nd consecutive weekly increase after 2 consecutive weekly decreases. The Weekly Leading Index at 131.2 (preliminary) is a 48-week high. Both the Weekly Leading Index and the Annualized Growth Rate are in intermediate, and long term uptrends and at very encouraging levels. The AGR is definitely off the bottom reached in late July, has continued uptrending. The WLI had dipped below the benchmark 130.00 level but has now bounced back. While this has not been indicative of a robust USA economic expansion, and actually was dismal at the bottom in July 2010, the overall uptrend of the Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate is encouraging and indicates an ongoing modest expansion of the USA economy. Per the ECRI, the Weekly Leading Index projects forward approximately 6 months and the Annualized Growth Rate is relative to the WLI. That is, the overall higher WLI in 2010 mitigates some of the formerly negative AGR.

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* Data courtesy of the Economic Cycle Research Institute *

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