Friday, April 15, 2011

USA Weekly Leading Index Dips Below Recent High (Charts) *Annualized growth rate rises to +6.8%*


ECRI Economic Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate
*** Updated April 15, 2011 for the week ended April 8, 2011 ***

Weekly Leading Index

Overview The USA Economic Weekly Leading Index (WLI) was down -0.5 to 130.6 (preliminary) for the week ended April 8, 2011. This is just below last week's peak, which was the highest since the week ending May 10, 2010 (132.0) and a 48-week high.

Trend The Weekly Leading Index (preliminary) decreased for the latest week, continues an intermediate term uptrend, and is flat long term.

Cycle History The Weekly Leading Index reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010. A Great Recession low of 105.4 was set for the week ended March 6, 2009.

Weekly Leading Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, from the cyclical peak 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported.

Annualized Growth Rate

Overview The WLI Annualized Growth Rate (AGR) was up +0.1% to +6.8% (preliminary) for the week ended April 8, 2011. The Annualized Growth Rate has increased or held steady 34 weeks in the past 37 weeks.

Trend The Annualized Growth Rate short term trend is neutral, the intermediate trend has been upwards, and the long term trend is still below the late 2009 and early 2010 highs.

Cycle History The Annualized Growth Rate reached a Post-Great Recession peak of +27.8% for the week ended October 9, 2009. A Great Recession low of -29.8% was set for the week ended December 5, 2008.

Annualized Growth Rate (Chart) Below is a chart of ECRI WLI Annualized Growth Rate, from the Weekly Leading Index cyclical peak for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported. A negative growth % was reached in early June 2010, remained negative for 28 consecutive weeks until the past 17 weeks.

Commentary The current Annualized Growth Rate at +6.8% (preliminary) is a welcome weekly increase. The current Weekly Leading Index at 130.6 (preliminary) dipped below last week's 48-week high. Both the Weekly Leading Index and the Annualized Growth Rate are in intermediate term uptrends and continue at very encouraging levels. The AGR is definitely off the bottom reached in late July, and is holding the gains made. The WLI had dipped below the benchmark 130.00 level but has now bounced back. While this has not been indicative of a robust USA economic expansion, and actually was dismal at the bottom in July 2010, the overall uptrend of the Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate is encouraging and indicates an ongoing modest expansion of the USA economy. Per the ECRI, the Weekly Leading Index projects forward approximately 6 months and the Annualized Growth Rate is relative to the WLI. That is, the overall higher WLI in 2010 mitigates some of the formerly negative AGR.

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* Data courtesy of the Economic Cycle Research Institute *

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