Global Economy Expands, Worldwide Job Creation

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month
Index > 50.0 is expansion, Index < 50.0 is contraction



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global economy continued to expand in February. Although the rate of expansion eased to a four-month low, the loss of momentum was only slight and improving inflows of new business raise the chances of a near-term re-acceleration.  Economic growth is also supporting further job creation, which will hopefully provide a helpful spur to demand."

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Global Services PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Worldwide Employment Increases "February data signalled an increase in global all-industry employment for the fifth month running, with the rate of jobs growth unchanged from January's 20-month peak. Service sector staffing levels continued to rise at a solid clip, whereas the rate of expansion in manufacturing payroll numbers remained negligible."

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USA Manufacturing Expands, Jobs Rise

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USA Monthly Manufacturing PMI

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Bradley J. Holcomb, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, stated, "The PMI™ registered 54.2 percent, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from January's reading of 53.1 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for the third consecutive month. This month's reading reflects the highest PMI™ since June 2011, when the index registered 55.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 57.8 percent, an increase of 4.5 percent over January's reading of 53.3 percent, indicating growth in new orders for the second consecutive month. As was the case in January, all five of the PMI™'s component indexes — new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories — registered in positive territory in February. In addition, the Backlog of Orders, Exports and Imports Indexes all grew in February relative to January."

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Year
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



American Manufacturing Jobs Increase "ISM's Employment Index registered 52.6 percent in February, which is 1.4 percentage points lower than the 54 percent reported in January. This month's reading indicates growth in employment for the 41st consecutive month. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment."

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USA Manufacturing Expands, Jobs Increase

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Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI

The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index PMI) signalled further expansion of the U.S. manufacturing sector in February, although the rate of growth slowed slightly on January’s nine-month peak. At 55.2, down from 55.8, the ‘flash’ PMI reading, which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, continued to suggest a strong improvement in overall manufacturing business conditions.

Markit Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Month
Current Index: 55.2 (Flash Estimate)
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said: “U.S. manufacturers reported the largest monthly rise in production for almost two years in February, suggesting that the economy is set to rebound from the weak patch seen late last year and allaying fears of a double-dip recession."

“The domestic market is providing the main stimulus to growth, but weak demand in other countries caused export orders to fall slightly for the first time since October."

“The disappointing export performance led overall growth of order books to slow slightly, which in turn caused increasing numbers of manufacturers to think twice about hiring extra staff. Employment rose in February, but the rate of job creation slowed and remained weaker than policymakers would like to see."

“While the survey therefore paints an encouraging picture of the manufacturing sector, helping to drive a return to growth for the economy as a whole in the first quarter of this year, firms still need to see greater confidence in the longer-term economic outlook for employment numbers to pick up again.”

USA Manufacturing Jobs Increase "Reflective of greater output requirements, companies hired additional staff in February. Manufacturing employment rose solidly, albeit at its weakest rate since last November."

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Global Economy Expands, Worldwide Employment Increases

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: ""The global economy made a solid start to 2013, with both the manufacturing and service sectors seeing output rise. Output is being supported by the pillars of rising new business inflows, work on pipeline contracts and rising employment. This should help sustain the expansion during the opening quarter, even if growth remains below trend initially."

Global All-Industry, Manufacturing, Services PMI Indexes by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Worldwide Employment Increases "The US saw the most substantial increase in payroll numbers of the nations covered by the surveys, with the rate of expansion in workforce levels in the US hitting a near seven-and-a-half year peak. Employment also continued to rise in China, India, Brazil and Ireland. There was a return to jobs growth in the UK, while Japanese payroll numbers showed little change over the month. In contrast, the Eurozone saw further job losses, with reductions reported in each of the big-four euro area nations."

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Global Manufacturing Grows, Worldwide Jobs Stabilize

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global manufacturing sector has made a bright start to 2013, with the PMI indicating that output growth recovered to a ten-month high following the soft patch seen during much of last year. The continued upward trend in PMI orders suggests the PMI, and global production growth, may strengthen further in the next few months."

Worldwide Jobs Stabilize "Manufacturing employment rose marginally for the second month running in January, mainly reflecting a solid increase in US staffing levels."

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USA Manufacturing Continues Expansion, Jobs Increase

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USA Monthly Manufacturing PMIs

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Bradley J. Holcomb, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, stated, "The PMI registered 53.1 percent, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from December's seasonally adjusted reading of 50.2 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for the second consecutive month. The New Orders Index registered 53.3 percent, an increase of 3.6 percent over December's seasonally adjusted reading of 49.7 percent, indicating growth in new orders. Manufacturing is starting out the year on a positive note, with all five of the PMI's component indexes - new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories - registering above 50 percent in January."

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Year
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



American Manufacturing Jobs Increase "ISM's Employment Index registered 54 percent in January, which is 2.1 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 51.9 percent reported in December, and indicates growth in employment for the 40th consecutive month. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment."

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Global Economic Growth Accelerates

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global private sector output expanded at the fastest pace for nine months in December, rounding off the strongest quarter since Q1 2012. Trends in new orders and employment also improved, but there were further signs of companies supporting output levels by working through backlogs of work.

At 53.7 in December, up slightly from 53.6 in November, the Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM - signalled expansion for the forty-first successive month. The rate of increase was broadly in line with the average for this period.

Global All-Industry, Manufacturing, Services by Month



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Growth of the global economy peaked at a nine-month high in December, led by a solid increase in service sector output and signs of a muted recovery in manufacturing production. The global economy is therefore entering the new year on a positive footing and, with trends in demand and other forwardlooking indicators still supportive, should maintain this momentum in the coming months."

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USA Manufacturing Expands in December

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USA Monthly Manufacturing PMIs

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Month



Bradley J. Holcomb, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, stated, "The PMI™ registered 50.7 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from November's reading of 49.5 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for only the third time in the last seven months. This month's PMI™ reading moved manufacturing off its low point for 2012 in November. The New Orders Index remained at 50.3 percent, the same rate as in November, indicating growth in new orders for the fourth consecutive month. The Production Index registered 52.6 percent, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points, indicating growth in production for the third consecutive month. The Employment Index registered 52.7 percent, an increase of 4.3 percentage points, indicating a resumption of growth in employment following only one month of contraction since September 2009. Both the Exports and Imports Indexes registered 51.5 percent, returning both indexes to growth territory following consecutive periods of contraction of six and four months, respectively. Comments from the panel this month are mixed, with some indicating a strengthening of demand and others indicating a continuing softness in demand. Additionally, many respondents express uncertainty about government regulations, taxes and global economics in general as we approach 2013."

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Year

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Global Manufacturing Rebounds, Worldwide Jobs Stabilize

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI by Month

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "PMI survey indices for output, new orders and employment continued to lift at the end of 2012, as the global manufacturing sector stabilises following a softer patch in the middle of the year. With the rate of inventory accumulation also remaining low, the sector should, barring any disruptions, advance further into expansion territory at the start of 2013."

Worldwide Jobs Stabilize "The Eurozone and Japan remained the main drags on global manufacturing production and employment in December. The euro area saw output contract for the tenth month running, while jobs were cut for the eleventh straight month. The downturn in Japan gathered pace, with production falling at the sharpest pace since early-2011 and payroll numbers declining for the third consecutive month. Employment rose in the US, Canada, Mexico, India, Taiwan, Turkey, Ireland and Vietnam, and was broadly unchanged in China, the UK, South Korea and Brazil."

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Global Economic Growth Continues at Slow Pace

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month



November saw the fastest expansion of global economic output since March. Growth of service sector business activity accelerated sharply, while the manufacturing sector stabilised following a four-month period of contraction.

The Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – rose to an eight-month high of 53.7 in November, and has now signalled expansion in each of the past 40 months. However, at its current level, the Output Index is only consistent with a moderate rate of increase in global GDP

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Although global GDP growth remains muted, the latest PMI data are at least showing positive signs in the service sector at a time when forward-looking indicators for manufacturing suggest the sector should move back into growth territory around year-end. Cost-caution still prevails across the global economy, however, which will continue to hold back employment over the near-term horizon."

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



Global Services PMI by Month

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Global Manufacturing Contracts for 6th Consecutive Month, Worldwide Job Losses Continue

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Global manufacturing appears to be lifting into year’s end. Survey indexes of output, new orders and employment continue to improve, albeit from low levels, while the rate of finished goods inventory accumulation is indicated to be quite low. This pattern typically heralds faster output gains."

Worldwide Jobs Losses Continue "November saw global manufacturing employment reduced for the fifth consecutive month. However, the rate of loss has remained only marginal throughout this sequence. The main centre of job creation was North America, with modest increases recorded in the US, Canada and Mexico. Payroll numbers were reduced in China, Japan, South Korea and (on average) across the European Union."

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USA Manufacturing Contracts in November

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USA Monthly Manufacturing PMIs

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Month



Bradley J. Holcomb, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, stated, "The PMI registered 49.5 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from October's reading of 51.7 percent, indicating contraction in manufacturing for the fourth time in the last six months. This month's PMI reading reflects the lowest level since July 2009 when the PMI registered 49.2 percent. The New Orders Index registered 50.3 percent, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points from October, indicating growth in new orders for the third consecutive month. The Production Index registered 53.7 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points, indicating growth in production for the second consecutive month. The Employment Index registered 48.4 percent, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points, which is the index's lowest reading since September 2009 when the Employment Index registered 47.8 percent. The Prices Index registered 52.5 percent, reflecting a decrease of 2.5 percentage points. Comments from the panel this month generally indicate that the second half of the year continues to show a slowdown in demand; respondents also express concern over how and when the fiscal cliff issue will be resolved.

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Year

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Global Economic Growth Remains Subdued

JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month



The global economy started Q4 2012 on a lacklustre footing. Rates of expansion in output and new orders remained well below their long-run trends, as growth at service providers was offset by the ongoing contraction at manufacturers.

The Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 51.3 in October, down from 52.4 in September. The headline index has signalled expansion for 39 successive months. However, following a brief spell of solid growth during the opening quarter of the year, the rate of expansion since then has remained weak overall.

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The start of the final quarter has seen global economic growtt continue to track at a below long run trend pace. A contracting manufacturing sector remains the main drag, while the larger service sector remains on a subdued expansion path. The trend in employment has also been volatile in recent months, as companies continue to assess future growth prospects."

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



Global Services PMI by Month

Global Manufacturing Contracts for 5th Consecutive Month, Worldwide Job Losses Resume

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



"The downturn in the global manufacturing sector moderated in October. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI - a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM - rose for the second month running to reach 49.2, its highest reading during the current five-month period of contraction."

Worldwide Jobs Losses Resume "Subsequently, global manufacturing employment was reduced for the third time in the past four months. Job losses were seen across most of the Western European nations, China, Japan, Australia, South Africa and Brazil. In contrast, the US, Mexico and Canada reported higher employment"

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USA Manufacturing Expands in October!

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USA Monthly Manufacturing PMIs

Manufacturing expansion (> 50) was reported by both Markit (51.0) and ISM (51.7) for September 2012.


ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Month



ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Year

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Global Economic Growth Rebounds

JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month



September PMI data signalled a modest acceleration in the pace of global economic growth. The rate of expansion hit a six-month high, but remained below-trend compared to that seen since the recovery began in August 2009.

The Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 52.5 in September, up from 50.9 in August. The average reading during Q3 as a whole (51.7) is little changed from the three-year low reached in Q2 (51.6).

Please note that, due to later release dates than usual, September services data for China, India and whole economy data for Hong Kong were not available to include in this month's global PMI. August data have been used as a proxy for the September calculations.

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



Global Services PMI by Month

Global Manufacturing Contracts for 4th Consecutive Month, Worldwide Jobs Rebound

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



"The downturn in the global manufacturing sector continued in September, following further contractions in both output and new orders. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI - a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM - posted 48.9, up slightly from August's 38-month low of 48.1, but below the neutral 50.0 mark for the fourth month running."

Worldwide Jobs Rebound "Job creation was recorded for the first time in three months in September, although the pace of increase was only modest. Among the largest industrial nations covered by the survey, staffing levels rose in the US, Japan, Germany, India, Canada, Mexico and Russia."

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USA Manufacturing Expands in September!

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USA Monthly Manufacturing PMIs

Manufacturing expansion (> 50) was reported by both Markit (51.1) and ISM (51.5) for September 2012.


Markit USA Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Month



ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Month

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