Monday, April 4, 2011

Global Manufacturing at 3-Month Low in March (Chart) *Remains robust: 21st month of expansion*

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Global Manufacturing PMI by JPMorgan


Official Statement by JPMorgan The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell to a three-month low of 55.8 in March, from a near-record high of 57.4 in February. The PMI has now remained above the neutral 50.0 mark for 21 consecutive months. Commenting on the survey, David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Although easing from a near-record high in February, the March PMI data remained well above long-run trend and consistent with a robust increase in global IP of around 5-6% saar. This month's global PMI was considerably stronger excluding Japan, where the natural disasters sent the Japan PMI and industrial output plunging. There was little visible sign of supply-chain disruptions in the March surveys, but this effect is likely to be more visible in EM Asia in April."
● Manufacturing Production rose at a robust clip in March. Although the rate of growth eased to a four-month low, it was still above the long-run survey average and consistent with global industrial production expanding by between 5-6% saar.
● New Orders also eased from the near-record highs signalled in the preceding two months.
● New Export Orders posted a further solid gain in March, despite the rate of increase slipping to a three-month low.
● Job Creation was reported for the sixteenth month running in March, with the rate of increase remaining close to February's series record peak.
● Input Prices March saw a further marked increase in average input prices, with the rate of inflation remaining close to February's two-anda- half year peak.

Trend The short term trend has now leveled off and even decreased slightly, after 5 consecutive monthly increases. The intermediate term and long term trends continue upwards. The current JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI is:
● Above the slightly descending 12-month moving average of 55.3 and has continued above for 4 consecutive months
● Above the sharply ascending 24-month moving average of 53.5 and has continued above for months
● (The 12-month and 24-month moving averages charts are not shown on this page)

Cycle History The JPMorgan Manufacturing PMI reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 57.7 in April 2010. A Great Recession cyclical bottom of 33.7 was set in December 2008. The PMI is a percentage - not a total. More about the PMI below the chart.

JPMorgan Monthly Global Manufacturing PMI (Chart) Below is a chart of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from the cyclical low, the Great Recession low of 33.7 in December 2008 through the latest month reported. The PMI has been greater than 50, indicating global manufacturing is expanding, since August 2009. As can be seen, the PMI bottomed in December 2008 at 33.7, ascended significantly through August 2009 to 53.1. The PMI eventually continued upwards to a peak of 57.7 in April 2010. 5 consecutive monthly declines ensued, then 5 monthly increases, and now a decrease.  However, the PMI still indicates global manufacturing has been expanding since August 2009.



Commentary The March 2011 Global Manufacturing PMI of 55.8 and a -1.6% decrease from February is disappointing but expected due to the earthquake in Japan and higher oil prices. There have been some forecasts that predict a dip in both the USA and Global pace of expansion in Q1 2011, especially in March. The USA Manufacturing PMI continued rapid growth in March and is reviewed here. The Q4 2010 (October, November, and December) data were a trend reversal to the upside from Q3 2010.

About the PMI The Global Report on Manufacturing is compiled by Markit based on the results of surveys covering over 7,500 purchasing executives in almost 30 countries. Together these countries account for an estimated 86% of global manufacturing output. Questions are asked about real events and are not opinion based. Data are presented in the form of diffusion indices, where an index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in the variable since the previous month and below 50.0 a decrease.
Data sources: Country % share of global GDP
United States 28.6
Japan 12.3
China 7.4
Germany 5.0
United Kingdom 4.2
France 3.7
Italy 2.8
Brazil 2.2
India 2.2
South Korea 1.9
Spain 1.8
Australia 1.4
Netherlands 1.1
Russia 1.0
Turkey 0.9
Taiwan 0.8
Switzerland 0.7
Poland 0.6
Austria 0.5
South Africa 0.5
Denmark 0.4
Greece 0.4
Israel 0.4
Singapore 0.4
Ireland 0.3
Czech Republic 0.2
New Zealand 0.2
Hungary 0.1

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is a leading global financial services firm with assets of $803 billion and operations in more than 50 countries. The firm is a leader in investment banking, financial services for consumers and businesses, financial transaction processing, investment management, private banking and private equity. A component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, JPMorgan Chase is headquartered in New York and serves more than 30 million consumer customers nationwide, and many of the world’s most prominent corporate, institutional and government clients. Information about JPMorgan Chase is available on the internet at http://www.jpmorganchase.com/.

Markit Economics is a specialist compiler of business surveys and economic indices, including the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) series, which is now available for 26 countries and key regions including the Eurozone and BRIC. The PMIs have become the most closely-watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic trends. To learn more go to www.markit.com/economics.

Founded in 1915, the Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. ISM's membership base includes approximately 40,000 supply management professionals with a network of domestic and international affiliated associations. ISM is a not-for-profit institute that provides opportunities for the promotion of the profession and the expansion of professional skills and knowledge.

The International Federation of Purchasing and Supply Management (IFPSM) is the union of 42 national purchasing associations worldwide. Within this circle, about 200,000 purchasing professionals can be reached. IFPSM is a non-political, independent and non-profit oriented international organisation, registered in Aarau, Switzerland. IFPSM facilitates the development and distribution of knowledge to elevate and advance the procurement profession, thus favourably impacting the standard of living of citizens worldwide through improved business practices.


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*Data courtesy of the Institute for Supply Management and JPMorgan*


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