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USA Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) by the Institute for Supply Management
Official Statement by the Institute for Supply Management (Tempe, Arizona) - Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March for the 20th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 22nd consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The recent trend of rapid growth in the manufacturing sector continued in March, as the PMI registered above 60 percent for the third consecutive month. The component indexes of the PMI remain at very positive levels and signal strong sector performance in the first quarter. While manufacturers are benefiting from strength in new orders and production, there is significant concern with regard to commodity prices. Many manufacturers indicate the prices they have to pay for inputs are rising, and there is concern about the impact of higher prices on their margins."
Trend The short-term trend has been up and the current PMI is just under the Post-Great Recession peak of February 2011. The current PMI is:
● Above the level 12 month moving average of 57.9 and has continued above for 6 consecutive months.
● Above the steeply ascending 24-month moving average of 54.9 and has continued above for months
● Above the ascending 36-month moving averages of 50.7 and has continued above for months
● (The 12-month, 24-month, and 36-month moving averages charts are not shown on this page).
Cycle History The ISM Manufacturing PMI reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 61.4 in February 2011. A Great Recession cyclical low of 32.5 was set in December 2008. The PMI is a percentage - not a total. More about the PMI below the chart.
ISM Monthly Manufacturing PMI (Chart) Below is a chart of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from cyclical low, the Great Recession low of 32.5 in December 2008 through the latest month reported. The PMI has been greater than 50, indicating USA manufacturing is expanding, since August 2009, for 20 consecutive months. As can be seen, the PMI bottomed in December 2008 at 32.5, ascended significantly through August 2009 to 52.8, the first time above 50 since January 2008. The PMI continued upwards to a peak of 60.4 in March 2010. The PMI then decreased for 4 consecutive months (April 2010 through July 2010) and now has regained the 60.0 benchmark for 3 consecutive months. However, a PMI greater than 50 indicates USA manufacturing is expanding even when the monthly PMI was decreasing in some months in 2010, just at a slower rate.
Trend The short-term trend has been up and the current PMI is just under the Post-Great Recession peak of February 2011. The current PMI is:
● Above the level 12 month moving average of 57.9 and has continued above for 6 consecutive months.
● Above the steeply ascending 24-month moving average of 54.9 and has continued above for months
● Above the ascending 36-month moving averages of 50.7 and has continued above for months
● (The 12-month, 24-month, and 36-month moving averages charts are not shown on this page).
Cycle History The ISM Manufacturing PMI reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 61.4 in February 2011. A Great Recession cyclical low of 32.5 was set in December 2008. The PMI is a percentage - not a total. More about the PMI below the chart.
ISM Monthly Manufacturing PMI (Chart) Below is a chart of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from cyclical low, the Great Recession low of 32.5 in December 2008 through the latest month reported. The PMI has been greater than 50, indicating USA manufacturing is expanding, since August 2009, for 20 consecutive months. As can be seen, the PMI bottomed in December 2008 at 32.5, ascended significantly through August 2009 to 52.8, the first time above 50 since January 2008. The PMI continued upwards to a peak of 60.4 in March 2010. The PMI then decreased for 4 consecutive months (April 2010 through July 2010) and now has regained the 60.0 benchmark for 3 consecutive months. However, a PMI greater than 50 indicates USA manufacturing is expanding even when the monthly PMI was decreasing in some months in 2010, just at a slower rate.
Commentary The March 2011 PMI is the 3rd consecutive month above the benchmark 60.0. USA manufacturing is off to a strong start in 2011. The USA manufacturing sector continues to expand for the 20th consecutive month (PMI greater than 50.0) and the overall economy continues to expand for the 22nd consecutive month (PMI greater than 42.5). Key points of the current report:
● New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
● Supplier Deliveries Slower
● Inventories Contracting
About the PMI The ISM describes the PMI, the USA manufacturing metric as: A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting. A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The PMI is a composite of five indexes: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. 18 manufacturing industries are reported and represented in the PMI: Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Printing & Related Support Activities. The five industries reporting contraction in August are: Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Machinery.
● New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
● Supplier Deliveries Slower
● Inventories Contracting
About the PMI The ISM describes the PMI, the USA manufacturing metric as: A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting. A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The PMI is a composite of five indexes: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. 18 manufacturing industries are reported and represented in the PMI: Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Printing & Related Support Activities. The five industries reporting contraction in August are: Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Machinery.
About the Institute for Supply Management The Institute for Supply Management™, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education.
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