Sunday, September 18, 2011

USA Monthly Retail & Food Sales Rise (Charts) *Upward trend continues to another all-time high*


U.S. Census Bureau: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services

Trend The USA monthly retail and food services sales short-term trend continues upwards. The intermediate-term trend and long-term trend continue upwards. The small August 2011 monthly increase is 3rd consecutive increase and the 3rd in the past 4 months. Sales have increased 13 of the past 14 months (since July 2010) and 25 of the past 29 months (since April 2009).

Cycle History USA monthly sales for retail and food services in August 2011 of $389.50 billion (advance estimate) are a Post-Great Recession peak and an all-time high. The small August increase of $164 million is within the margin of error, however. This exceeds both the prior July 2011 all-time high of $389.34 billion and the Pre-Great Recession peak was $378.43 billion in November 2007. The Great Recession cyclical low was $332.67 billion in March 2009.

Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services (Chart) Below is a multi-year chart of USA monthly sales for retail and food services including the Pre-Great Recession Peak of $378.43 billion in November 2007 through the latest month reported.

Annual Sales for Retail and Food Services (Chart) Below is a chart of USA annual sales for retail and food services from 2004 through 2011 (estimated). Annual sales for 2011 are estimated by extrapolating 2011 actual monthly sales based on a 12-month year. Annual sales peaked in 2007 at $4.454 trillion, dipped in 2008 to $4.401 trillion, and reached a Great Recession cyclical low in 2009 at $4.093 trillion. The 2010 annual sales bounced upwards from the 2009 cyclical low to $4.354 trillion, which is just below the 2008 and 2009 annual sales. The 2011 estimated annual sales (utilizing only January through July 2011 annualized data) are at a record pace.

Commentary August 2011 sales for retail and food services at $389.50 billion (advance estimate) continue the upwards and record-setting trend. All-time highs have been set in 7 of the 8 months in 2011, exceeding the Pre-Great Recession November 2007 peak of $378.43 billion. Therefore, USA sales are well above the cyclical bottom and Great Recession low of $332.67 billion in March 2009. Annual sales for 2010 were $4.354 trillion, which is higher than 2009 and just below 2007 and 2008. Annual sales for 2011 are on pace to exceed 2010. Since consumer spending, consumption, is a significant portion of the USA economy (60%+ of GDP), this continuing strong trend should sustain, if not strengthen, at least some USA economic (GDP) growth.

High Gasoline Prices Below is a multi-year chart of selected USA monthly sales components. An increased amount of consumer spending has been diverted to energy, especially gasoline, with the increase in oil prices.  This is reflected in the Gasoline Stations (red) category now at $44.86 billion, which is just below the Grocery (light brown) category of $46.55 billion. The Autos and Parts (blue) category continues subdued at $66.38 billion. The Food Services (green) category has leveled off at $40.67 billion. The Electronics and Appliances (purple) category has leveled off at $8.45 billion.

Official Statement by U.S. Census Bureau (September 14, 2011) The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $389.5 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 7.2 percent (±0.7%) above August 2010. Total sales for the June through August 2011 period were up 7.9 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2011 percent change was revised from +0.5 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.2%). Retail trade sales were up 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from July 2011, and 7.5 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 20.8 percent (±1.7%) from August 2010 and nonstore retailers sales were up 10.4 percent (±2.5%) from last year

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate.

More Charts and Analysis!
USA and Global Economic News and Analysis
Apple (AAPL) financial performance and stock charts
Google (GOOG) financial performance and stock charts
Largest USA tech companies
Microsoft (MSFT) financial performance charts
Intel (INTC) financial performance charts
VMware (VMW) financial performance charts (CRM) financial performance charts
Rackspace (RAX) financial performance charts
Cisco (CSCO) financial performance charts
Oracle (ORCL) financial performance charts
HP (HPQ) financial performance charts
IBM (IBM) financial performance charts
USA failed and problem banks
Largest USA banks
Federal Reserve statistical releases
FDIC quarterly banking profile
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) financial performance charts
Citigroup (C) financial performance charts
Goldman Sachs (GS) financial performance charts
Wells Fargo (WFC) financial performance charts
Bank of America (BAC) financial performance charts
Morgan Stanley (MS) financial performance charts
S&P 500 (SPX) charts and review
China economic, Internet, and technology news
Baidu (BIDU) financial performance and stock charts
Select news regarding the Universe, Earth, Humanity, the Future

Visit Osprey Port News Network!
Apple, Google, Baidu, China, technology, financial system, stocks, markets, economy, science, environment, future

Follow Boom Doom Economy (@BoomDoomEconomy) on Twitter!
USA and Global Economic News and Analysis


Seeking Alpha