Sunday, September 4, 2011

USA Consumer Spending Increases to Post-Recession High (Charts) *Durable Goods, NonDurable Goods, Services increase*

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Bureau of Economic Analysis: Monthly Personal Income and Outlays


Official Statement by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (August 29, 2011) Personal income increased $42.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $32.5 billion, or 0.3 percent, in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $88.4 billion, or 0.8 percent. In June, personal income increased $27.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $22.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, and PCE decreased $14.3 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (Chart) (Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Below is a chart of Personal Consumption Expenditures, i.e., consumer spending. Consumer spending has increased 12 of the past 13 months and 24 of the past 27 months (revised). Current Personal Consumption Expenditures of $10.75 trillion (preliminary) is a Post-Great Recession high. The Great Recession low was $9.75 trillion in December 2008. The Pre-Great Recession peak was $10.18 trillion in June 2008. Personal Consumption Expenditures includes all consumer spending divided in three categories: Durable Goods, NonDurable Goods, and Services (see charts further below). Personal Consumption Expenditures is a sub-category of Personal Outlays, which also includes nonmortgage interest expense and personal transfer payments.


Consumer Durable Goods Purchases (Chart) (Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Below is a chart of Durable Goods Purchases, which increased in July after 4 consecutive monthly decreases. Current Durable Goods Purchases of $1.153 trillion (preliminary) is below the Post-Great Recession high of $1.163 trillion in February 2011. The Great Recession low was $997.6 billion in April 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was $1.178 trillion in January 2008. Consumer Durable Goods Purchases is a sub-category of Personal Consumption Expenditures (see chart above).


Consumer NonDurable Goods Purchases (Chart) (Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Below is a chart of NonDurable Goods Purchases, which increased in July after 2 consecutive monthly decreases. Current NonDurable Goods Purchases of $2.487 trillion (preliminary) is just below the Post-Great Recession high of $2.489 trillion in April 2011. The Great Recession low was $2.071 trillion in December 2008. The Pre-Great Recession peak was $2.375 trillion in July 2008. Consumer NonDurable Goods Purchases is a sub-category of Personal Consumption Expenditures (see chart above).


Consumer Services Purchases (Chart) (Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Below is a chart of Consumer Services Purchases, which have increased in a somewhat stair-step manner. Current Consumer Services Purchases of $7.110 trillion (preliminary) is a Post-Great Recession high. The Great Recession low was $6.634 trillion in May 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was $6.684 trillion in July 2008. Consumer Services Purchases are a sub-category of Personal Consumption Expenditures (see chart above).


Commentary July 2011 Personal Consumption Expenditures (preliminary) rose to a Post-Great Recession high and is very encouraging. All 3 components of PCE increased: Durable Goods for the 1st time in 5 months, NonDurable Goods for the 1st time in 3 months, and Services for the 6th consecutive month. A continuation of this uptrend is necessary to sustain the USA economic recovery.


About the Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mission: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) promotes a better understanding of the U.S. economy by providing the most timely, relevant, and accurate economic accounts data in an objective and cost-effective manner. Vision: To be the world's most respected producer of economic accounts.


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