Thursday, September 1, 2011

USA Manufacturing Growth Slows to 25-Month Low (Chart) *Sector expands for 25th consecutive month*


USA Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) by the Institute for Supply Management

Official Statement by the Institute for Supply Management (Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August for the 25th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 27th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.

Commenting on the Report The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI registered 50.6 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from July, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 25th consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate. The Production Index registered 48.6 percent, indicating contraction for the first time since May of 2009, when it registered 45 percent. The New Orders and Backlog of Orders Indexes edged up slightly from July, but both indexes are indicating contraction in August at slower rates than in July. The rate of increase in prices slowed for the fourth consecutive month, dropping another 3.5 percentage points in August to 55.5 percent. The overall sentiment is one of concern and caution over the domestic and international economic environment, which is affecting customers' confidence and willingness to place orders, at least in the short term."

Trend The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has decreased 2 consecutive months and 5 of the past 6 months. The short-term trend (3-month moving average) continues downwards, the intermediate-term trend (6-month moving average) continues downwards, and the long-term trend (12-month moving average) continues descending.

Cycle History The ISM Manufacturing PMI reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 61.4 in February 2011. A Great Recession cyclical low of 33.3 was set in December 2008. The PMI is a percentage - not a total. More about the PMI below the chart.

ISM Monthly Manufacturing PMI (Chart) Below is a chart of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from the March 2010 cyclical high of 60.4 through the latest month reported. The PMI has been greater than 50, indicating USA manufacturing is expanding, since August 2009, for 25 consecutive months. The PMI reached a first Post-Great Recession peak in March 2010 at 60.4 and a higher peak in February 2011 at 61.4However, a PMI greater than 50 indicates USA manufacturing is expanding even when the monthly PMI was decreasing in some months in 2010 and 2011, just at a slower rate.

Commentary The -0.3 decrease in the August 2011 PMI to 50.6 is a slower decrease but still near-dismal. This indicates USA manufacturing has slowed considerably, to near stalling. The PMI has decreased 5 of the past 6 months, since the February 2011 peak and Post-Great Recession high. However, the USA manufacturing sector continued to expand for the 25th consecutive month (PMI greater than 50.0) and the overall economy continues to expand for the 27th consecutive month (PMI greater than 42.5). Key points of the current report (Direction, Rate of Change):
● Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), USA Manufacturing Sector, growing, slower
● Manufacturing Sector growing, slower
● Overall USA Economy growing, slower
● New Orders contracting, from growing
● Production contracting, from growing
● Employment growing, slower
● Supplier Deliveries slowing, faster
● Inventories growing, from contracting
● Customer Inventories too low, slower
● Prices increasing, slower
● Backlog of Orders contracting, slower
● Exports growing, slower
● Imports growing, faster

About the PMI The ISM describes the PMI, the USA manufacturing metric as: A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting. A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The PMI is a composite of five indexes: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. 18 manufacturing industries are included: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Wood Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

About the Institute for Supply Management The Institute for Supply Management established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education.

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