Thursday, June 16, 2011

USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Drop to 414,000 (Charts) *4-week average unchanged 424,750*

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United States Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report
*** Updated June 16, 2011 for the week ended June 11, 2011 Claims ***


Official Statement by the U.S. Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted Data) In the week ending June 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 414,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 430,000. The 4-week moving average was 424,750, unchanged from the previous week's revised average of 424,750. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending June 4, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.9 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 4 was 3,675,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,696,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,709,000, a decrease of 15,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,724,250.

Trend In the short-term, the weekly unemployment insurance claims are now decreasing. The intermediate-term (6 months) has leveled off and is slightly downwards. The long-term (12 months) trend continues downwards. The current weekly unemployment claims (preliminary) are above 400,000 for the 10th consecutive week and after being below 400,00 for 4 consecutive weeks. 2011 average weekly claims of 413,875 year-to-date are lower than 2010 average weekly claims of 457,481

Cycle History USA weekly unemployment claims reached a Great Recession cyclical peak of 651,000 for the week ended March 28, 2009. A Post-Great Recession cyclical low of 371,000 was set for the week ended February 26, 2011.

USA Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims: 4-Week Moving Average (Chart) The chart below shows the 4-week moving average from the week ended August 21, 2010 through the latest week reported. The week ended August 21, 2010 was an intermediate term peak of 488,000. The 4-week moving average is considered a better, smoother measure of trend. The Great Recession cyclical peak was 643,000 for the week ended April 4, 2009 and the Post-Great Recession cyclical low has been 388,500 for the week ended March 12, 2011.


USA Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims (Chart) The chart below shows the total weekly unemployment claims from the week ended August 14, 2010 through the latest week reported. A general decline in claims had been indicated until recently, with an intermediate peak of 504,000 reached for the week ended August 14, 2010, the beginning of the chart.


Commentary Overall, this report is encouraging in that weekly unemployment claims are at a 4-week low. The latest weekly unemployment claims (preliminary) is the 10th consecutive week above 400,000 after 5 consecutive weeks below. The current claims (preliminary) continue above the Post-Great Recession cyclical low of 371,000 for the week ended February 26, 2011. The 4-week moving average (preliminary) continues above the Post-Great Recession cyclical low of 388,500 for the week ended March 12, 2011. The current 4-week moving average continues below the 26-week high of 440,250 for the week ended May 14, 2011. The 2011 average weekly claims is 413,875 (preliminary). The 2010 average weekly claims was 457,481.

Weekly claims first dropped below 500,000 in this Great Recession Cycle for the week ended November 21, 2009 at 477,000. Weekly claims have been below 500,000 since November 21, 2009 with only one exception (504,000 for the week ended August 14, 2010). Claims over 500,000 clearly indicate GDP growth is slowing, if not stalling or contracting, while claims less than 400,000 indicate a more robust economic expansion is underway.


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