Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Global Manufacturing Growth at 8-Month Low in May (Chart) *23rd month of expansion*


Global Manufacturing PMI by JPMorgan

Official Statement by JPMorgan April At 52.9 in May, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell for the third month running to reach its lowest level since September 2010. Although the headline index remained above the neutral 50.0 mark for the twenty-third successive month, the rate of growth was below the average for this period. Highlights include:
● Manufacturing Production rose at slowest pace in almost 2 years
● New Orders eased to its weakest during the current 23-month sequence of increase
● International Trade volumes eased to an 8-month low
● Job Creation rose again in May, continuing a trend of rising staffing levels
● Input Prices rose at the slowest pace since October 2010, reflecting in part lower oil and commodity prices

Trend The short term trend is downwards with 3 consecutive monthly decreases and an 8-month low in May. The intermediate-term trend (6 months) has reversed to downwards in May. The long-term trend (12 months) is downwards for 2 consecutive months, after leveling off in February and March.

Cycle History The JPMorgan Manufacturing PMI reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 57.7 in April 2010. A Great Recession cyclical bottom of 33.7 was set in December 2008. The PMI is a percentage - not a total. More about the PMI below the chart.

JPMorgan Monthly Global Manufacturing PMI (Chart) Below is a chart of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from the cyclical low, the Great Recession low of 33.7 in December 2008 through the latest month reported. The PMI has been greater than 50, indicating global manufacturing is expanding, since August 2009. As can be seen, the PMI bottomed in December 2008 at 33.7, ascended significantly through August 2009 to 53.1. The PMI eventually continued upwards to a peak of 57.7 in April 2010. The PMI still indicates global manufacturing has been expanding since August 2009.

Commentary The May 2011 Global Manufacturing PMI of 52.9 is an 8-month low (October 2010 = 53.7). Much of the March and April 2011 contractions were attributed to the earthquake in Japan plus higher oil and commodity prices. In May, much of the contraction is attributable to a "marked slowdown" in USA manufacturing. The USA Manufacturing PMI plunged in May and is reviewed here [USA Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 20-Month Low (Chart) *USA economy expands for 24th month*].

About the PMI The JPMorgan PMI Global Manufacturing PMI is based on the results of surveys carried out in the USA by ISM, in Japan, Germany, China, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, India, the Netherlands, Russia, Turkey, Austria, Poland, Greece, Ireland and Czech Republic by Markit and in a number of other countries: Australia, Switzerland, Denmark, South Africa, Israel, Singapore, New Zealand and Hungary. These countries together account for an estimated 90% of global manufacturing production. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI provides the first indication each month of world manufacturing business conditions, based on data collected from over 7,500 purchasing executives. It is compiled by Markit. The data enable decision makers in the financial world and in government to make better judgements much earlier than would otherwise be the case.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is a leading global financial services firm with assets of $803 billion and operations in more than 50 countries. The firm is a leader in investment banking, financial services for consumers and businesses, financial transaction processing, investment management, private banking and private equity. A component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, JPMorgan Chase is headquartered in New York and serves more than 30 million consumer customers nationwide, and many of the world’s most prominent corporate, institutional and government clients. Information about JPMorgan Chase is available on the internet at http://www.jpmorganchase.com/.

Markit Economics is a specialist compiler of business surveys and economic indices, including the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) series, which is now available for 26 countries and key regions including the Eurozone and BRIC. The PMIs have become the most closely-watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic trends. To learn more go to www.markit.com/economics.

Founded in 1915, the Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. ISM's membership base includes approximately 40,000 supply management professionals with a network of domestic and international affiliated associations. ISM is a not-for-profit institute that provides opportunities for the promotion of the profession and the expansion of professional skills and knowledge.

The International Federation of Purchasing and Supply Management (IFPSM) is the union of 42 national purchasing associations worldwide. Within this circle, about 200,000 purchasing professionals can be reached. IFPSM is a non-political, independent and non-profit oriented international organisation, registered in Aarau, Switzerland. IFPSM facilitates the development and distribution of knowledge to elevate and advance the procurement profession, thus favourably impacting the standard of living of citizens worldwide through improved business practices.

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*Data courtesy of the Institute for Supply Management and JPMorgan*

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