Friday, June 10, 2011

USA Weekly Leading Index at 20-Week Low (Charts) *Annualized growth rate at 18-week low*

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ECRI Economic Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate
*** Updated June 10, 2011 for the week ended June 3, 2011 ***


USA Weekly Leading Index

Overview The USA Economic Weekly Leading Index (WLI) was down -0.5 to 127.7 (preliminary) for the week ended June 3, 2011. The Weekly Leading Index has decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, decreased 7 of the past 9 weeks, and is at a 20-week low (127.7 for the week ended January 21, 2011).

Trend The Weekly Leading Index (preliminary) continues a short-term downtrend. The intermediate-term (6 months) trend is now level and the long-term (12 months) trend is increasing slightly.

Cycle History The Weekly Leading Index reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010. A Great Recession low of 105.4 was set for the week ended March 6, 2009.

Weekly Leading Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, from the Post-Great Recession cyclical peak 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported.


USA Annualized Growth Rate

Overview The WLI Annualized Growth Rate (AGR) was down -0.8% to +4.1% (preliminary) for the week ended June 3, 2011. The Annualized Growth Rate has decreased 7 consecutive weeks and is at a 18-week low (+3.7% for the week ended January 28, 2011).

Trend The Annualized Growth Rate (preliminary) is in a short-term downtrend, the intermediate-term (6 months) trend continues upwards, and the long-term (12 months) trend continues upwards.

Cycle History The Annualized Growth Rate reached a Post-Great Recession peak of +27.8% for the week ended October 9, 2009. A Great Recession low of -29.8% was set for the week ended December 5, 2008.

Annualized Growth Rate (Chart) Below is a chart of ECRI WLI Annualized Growth Rate, from the Weekly Leading Index cyclical peak for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported. A negative growth % was reached in early June 2010, remained negative for 28 consecutive weeks until the past 25 weeks (since the week ended December 24, 2010).


Commentary Overall, both the Weekly Leading Index and the Annualized Growth Rate continue showing signs of weakness and both are in short-term downtrends. The current Weekly Leading Index at 127.7 (preliminary) is below the 49-week high of 7 weeks ago (131.8), which was the highest since the week ended May 7, 2010 (132.0). The current Annualized Growth Rate at +4.1% (preliminary) is below the 48-week high of 6 weeks ago (+7.7%), which was the highest since the week ended May 14, 2010 (+9.3%). The AGR is definitely off the bottom reached in late July 2010, and is holding some of the gains attained. The WLI continues below the benchmark 130.00 level. While this has not been indicative of a robust USA economic expansion, and actually was dismal at the bottom in July 2010, the Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate overall continue at encouraging levels even though the trend is of concern. Both indicate an ongoing modest expansion of the USA economy. Per the ECRI, the Weekly Leading Index projects forward approximately 6 months and the Annualized Growth Rate is relative to the WLI.


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* Data courtesy of the Economic Cycle Research Institute *

 
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