Friday, June 10, 2011

Global Growth Projected to Remain Strong (GDP Charts) *The World Bank: Global Economic Prospects*


The World Bank: Working for a World Free of Poverty

The World Bank: Global Economic Prospects

Official Statement by The World Bank (June 7, 2011)
■ The global financial crisis is no longer the major force dictating the pace of economic activity in developing countries. The majority of developing countries have, or are close to  having regained full-capacity activity levels. As a result, country-specific productivity and sectoral factors are now the dominant factors underpinning growth.
■ Macroeconomic policy in developing countries needs to turn toward medium-term productivity enhancements, managing inflationary pressures re-establishing the fiscal and monetary cushions that allowed most developing countries to  come through the crisis so well.
 The earthquake and tsunami in Japan and the political turmoil in the Middle-East and North Africa have contributed to a modest slowing in global industrial production and trade.
 As output gaps close , aggregate growth in developing economies is projected to ease to a still strong 6.3 percent pace in 2011 through 2013.
 Robust domestic demand growth in developing countries has supported output in high income countries, but has accentuated capacity constraints in some domestic markets and in global energy and metals markets.
 Both monetary and fiscal policy in developing countries may have to tighten more quickly to curb these pressures.
 Although solid growth led by developing-countries is the most likely outcome going forward, high food prices, possible additional oil-price spikes, and lingering post-crisis difficulties in high-income countries pose downside risks.
 Further increases in food and fuel prices cannot be ruled out. 
 Concerns about fiscal sustainability in high-income countries persist.

The World Bank: GDP Growth Projections by Year (Chart) Below is The World Bank GDP Growth Projections by Year for the USA, Japan, the Euro Area, and the entire World. These are annualized percentage growth rates. The USA is forecast to outperform both Japan and the Euro Area from 2011 through 2013. However, the USA is forecast to underperform the World. Japan is forecast to dip to a mere +0.1% in 2011 as a result of the catastrophic earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis.

The World Bank: GDP Projections by Year for BRIC (Chart) Below is The World Bank GDP Growth Projections by Year for the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China). These are annual percentage growth rates. Brazil is forecast to slow down slightly from 2011 through 2013. Russia is forecast to remain steady. India is forecast to strengthen. China is forecast to decrease slightly but continue a strong pace. Both India and China will grow at a significantly faster pace than the World and USA.

Commentary The World Bank reports an overall positive economic forecast including global growth to remain strong. Risks noted by The World Bank include, "Although solid growth led by developing-countries is the most likely outcome going forward, high food prices, possible additional oil-price spikes, and lingering post-crisis difficulties in high-income countries pose downside risks."

Additional world economic outlooks have been reviewed previously:
Global Recovery Firmly Underway, But Surrounded by Risks (GDP Charts, Video) *OECD Economic Outlook* (Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development)
Global Recovery Gaining Strength (Video, GDP Charts) *IMF World Economic Outlook* (International Monetary Fund)
World Productivity Returned in 2010 (GDP Charts) *Projected slightly lower in 2011* (The Conference Board)

About The World Bank

The World Bank is a vital source of financial and technical assistance to developing countries around the world. Our mission is to fight poverty with passion and professionalism for lasting results and to help people help themselves and their environment by providing resources, sharing knowledge, building capacity and forging partnerships in the public and private sectors.

We are not a bank in the common sense; we are made up of two unique development institutions owned by 187 member countries: the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA).

Each institution plays a different but collaborative role in advancing the vision of inclusive and sustainable globalization. The IBRD aims to reduce poverty in middle-income and creditworthy poorer countries, while IDA focuses on the world's poorest countries.

Their work is complemented by that of the International Finance Corporation (IFC), Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) and the International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID).

Together, we provide low-interest loans, interest-free credits and grants to developing countries for a wide array of purposes that include investments in education, health, public administration, infrastructure, financial and private sector development, agriculture and environmental and natural resource management.

The World Bank, established in 1944, is headquartered in Washington, D.C. We have more than 10,000 employees in more than 100 offices worldwide.

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