Boom Doom Economy: USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Continue Under 400K for 3rd Week (Charts) *4-week average continues below 400K*

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United States Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

*** Updated March 10, 2011 for the week ended March 5, 2011 Claims ***

USA Weekly Unemployment Continue Under 400K for 3rd Week

4-Week Moving Average Continues Below 400K

Official Statement by the US Department of Labor In the week ending March 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 397,000, an increase of 26,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 371,000. The 4-week moving average was 392,250, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average of 389,250. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending Feb. 26, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.0 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb.26 was 3,771,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,791,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,833,250, a decrease of 34,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,868,000.

Trend The short-term trend is below 400,000, and the the intermediate and long term trends are downwards. The current weekly unemployment claims (preliminary) of 397,000 is the 3rd consecutive week below 400,000. The current claims (preliminary) is above the ascending 4-week moving average of 392,250 for the first time in 6 weeks. The current claims (preliminary) is below the 13-week, 26-week, and 52-week moving averages of 409,077, 427,692, and 445,596, respectively. The descending 13-week moving average has decreased for 20 of the past 21 weeks. The descending 26-week moving averages has decreased 16 of the past 17 weeks. The descending 52-week moving average continues a downward trend and has been decreasing for months. The 13-week, 26-week and 52-week moving averages are at Post-Great Recession cyclical lows. (The 13-week, 26-week, and 52-week moving averages charts are not shown on this page).

Cycle History Weekly unemployment claims (preliminary) of 397,000 for the week ended March 5, 2011 are down -254,000 and -40% from the Great Recession cyclical high of 651,000 for the week ended March 28, 2009. The weekly unemployment claims (preliminary) are +26,000 and +6% above the Post-Great Recession cyclical low of 371,000 for the week ended February 26, 2011.

4-Week Moving Average (Chart) The chart below shows the 4-week moving average for the last 29 weeks, from the week ended August 21, 2010 through the latest week reported, March 5 , 2011. The week ended August 21, 2010 was an intermediate term peak of 488,000. The trend had been downwards since this recent peak of 488,000 for the week ended August 21, 2010. The 4-week moving average, currently 392,250 (preliminary), is considered a better, smoother measure of trend. The 4-week moving average continues an overall downtrend and has decreased 12 of the past 18 weeks and 20 of the past 28 weeks. Longer-term, the 4-week moving average dropped significantly to reach a first low of 462,500 for the week ended January 9, 2010. After an increase, another low was set of 448,000 for the week ended March 27, 2010. The overall trend continues downwards.

Weekly Unemployment Claims (Chart) The chart below shows the total weekly unemployment claims for the last 30 weeks, from the week ended August 14, 2010 through the latest week reported, February 12, 2011. A general decline in claims had been indicated, with an intermediate peak of 504,000 reached for the week ended August 14, 2010, the beginning of the chart.

Commentary The latest weekly unemployment claims (preliminary) is now the 3rd consecutive week and the 5th time below 400,000 since the end of the Great Recession. Both the current claims (preliminary) and the 4-week moving average (preliminary) are just above last week's Post-Great Recession cyclical lows. The short term, intermediate term, and long term trends continue downwards as indicated by the descending 13-week, 26-week and 52-week moving averages. Claims at 500,000 level is a benchmark, as is the 400,000 level.

Weekly claims first dropped below 500,000 in this Great Recession Cycle for the week ended November 21, 2009 at 477,000. Weekly claims have been below 500,000 since November 21, 2009 with only one exception (504,000 for the week ended August 14, 2010). Claims over 500,000 clearly indicate GDP growth is slowing, if not stalling or contracting, while claims less than 400,000 indicate a decent economic expansion is underway. Hence the uncertainty over the pace and strength of the USA economic recovery had been heightened as weekly unemployment claims have generally stayed in the mid-400,000s range until recently. Weekly unemployment claims are now generally in the low 400,000s to high 300,000s, indicating a stronger than expected economic expansion and GDP.

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