Friday, March 25, 2011

USA Weekly Leading Index Dips to 129.3 (Charts) *Annualized growth rate dips to +6.5%*

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ECRI Economic Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate
*** Updated March 25, 2011 for the week ended March 19, 2011 ***


USA Economic Weekly Leading Index Dips to 129.3

Overview The USA Economic Weekly Leading Index (WLI) was down -1.0 to 129.3 (preliminary) for the week ended March 19, 2011. This is the 2nd consecutive weekly decline and below intermediate term peak of 2 weeks ago of 130.9.

Trend The Weekly Leading Index (preliminary) dipped for the latest week but continues intermediate and long term uptrends. The Weekly Leading Index:
=> Is below the ascending 13-week moving average of 129.4 for the first time after 28 consecutive weeks above.
=> Continues above the ascending 26-week moving average of 126.9 for the 21st consecutive week.
=> Continues above the mostly level 52-week moving average of 125.9 for the 16th consecutive week.
=> (The 13-week, 26-week, and 52-week moving averages charts are not shown on this page).

Cycle History The Weekly Leading Index (preliminary) for the week ended March 19, 2011 is down -5.8 from the Post-Great Recession peak of 135.1 for the week ended April 30, 2010. The current WLI is up +8.9 from the intermediate term bottom of 120.4 for the week ended July 16, 2010. Therefore, the current WLI (preliminary) is closer to the cyclical peak than trough.

Weekly Leading Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the latest 47 weeks of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, from the cyclical peak 135.1 for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported, March 19, 2011. As can be seen, the WLI declined significantly from the April peak and then has uptrended subsequently.




USA WLI Annualized Growth Rate Dips to +6.5%

Overview The WLI Annualized Growth Rate (AGR) was up +0.6% to +6.5% (preliminary) for the week ended March 19, 2011. The Annualized Growth Rate has increased 32 weeks in the past 34 weeks. This is the 3rd weekly decrease since the week ended July 23, 2010.

Trend The Annualized Growth Rate has been on a steady uptrend, has increased or held steady for 27 of the past 29 weeks, and increased or held steady for 32 of the last 34 weeks. This was after 12 consecutive weekly declines from the week ended May 7, 2010 to the week ended July 23, 2010. This is the first weekly decrease after 7 consecutive weekly increases.

Cycle History The Annualized Growth Rate for the week ended March 19, 2011 is down -21.2 from the peak of +27.7% for the week ended October 9, 2009. The current Annualized Growth Rate is up +17.4 from the intermediate term bottom of -10.9% for the week ended July 23, 2010. Therefore, the current Annualized Growth Rate (preliminary) continues closer  to the cyclical trough than peak, but is well off the bottom.

Annualized Growth Rate (Chart) Below is a chart of the latest 47 weeks of the ECRI WLI Annualized Growth Rate, from the Weekly Leading Index cyclical peak for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported, March 5, 2011. The Post-Great Recession cyclical peak was +27.7% in early October 2009. A negative growth % was reached in early June 2010, remained negative for 28 consecutive weeks until the past 14 weeks.


Commentary The Annualized Growth Rate at +6.5% (preliminary) is a disappointing decrease after 7 consecutive weekly increases, but has continued positive 14 consecutive weeks and in an overall uptrend for 34 weeks, after being negative for 28 consecutive weeks (June 4, 2010 to December 10, 2010). The Weekly Leading Index at 129.3 (preliminary) is below the intermediate term peak 2 weeks ago of 130.9. Both the Weekly Leading Index and the Annualized Growth Rate are in intermediate, and long term uptrends and remain at very encouraging levels. The AGR is definitely off the bottom reached in late July, has continued uptrending. The WLI dipped below the benchmark 130.00 level. While this has not been indicative of a robust USA economic expansion, and actually was dismal at the bottom in July 2010, the overall uptrend of the Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate is encouraging and indicates an ongoing modest expansion of the USA economy. Per the ECRI, the Weekly Leading Index projects forward approximately 6 months and the Annualized Growth Rate is relative to the WLI. That is, the overall higher WLI in 2010 mitigates some of the formerly negative AGR.


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* Data courtesy of the Economic Cycle Research Institute *

 
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