Friday, March 18, 2011

USA Weekly Leading Index Dips to 130.4 (Charts) *Annualized growth rate increases to 43-week high!*

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ECRI Economic Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate
*** Updated March 18, 2011 for the week ended March 12, 2011 ***


USA Economic Weekly Leading Index Dips to 130.4

Overview The USA Economic Weekly Leading Index (WLI) was down -0.5 to 130.4 (preliminary) for the week ended March 12, 2011. This is below intermediate term peak last week of 130.9.

Trend The Weekly Leading Index (preliminary) dipped for the latest week but continues intermediate and long term uptrends. The WLI:
=> Continues above the ascending 13-week moving average of 129.3 for the 28th consecutive week.
=> Continues above the ascending 26-week moving average of 126.7 for the 20th consecutive week.
=> Continues above the level 52-week moving average of 126.0 for the 15th consecutive week.
=> (The 13-week, 26-week, and 52-week moving averages charts are not shown on this page).

Cycle History The Weekly Leading Index (preliminary) for the week ended March 12, 2011 is down -4.7 from the Post-Great Recession peak of 135.1 for the week ended April 30, 2010. The current WLI is up +10.0 from the intermediate term bottom of 120.4 for the week ended July 16, 2010. Therefore, the current WLI (preliminary) is closer to the cyclical peak than trough.

Weekly Leading Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the latest 46 weeks of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, from the cyclical peak 135.1 for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported, March 12, 2011. As can be seen, the WLI declined significantly from the April peak and then has uptrended subsequently.




USA WLI Annualized Growth Rate at 43-Week High!

Overview The WLI Annualized Growth Rate (AGR) was up +0.3% to +7.1% (preliminary) for the week ended March 12, 2011. This is the 31st increase in the past 33 weeks, the 7th consecutive weekly increase, and a 43 week high.

Trend The Annualized Growth Rate has been on a steady uptrend, has increased or held steady for 27 of the past 28 weeks, and increased or held steady for 31 of the last 33 weeks. This was after 12 consecutive weekly declines from the week ended May 7, 2010 to the week ended July 23, 2010. There have now been 7 consecutive weekly increases.

Cycle History The Annualized Growth Rate for the week ended March 12, 2011 is down -20.6 from the peak of +27.7% for the week ended October 9, 2009. The current Annualized Growth Rate is up +18.0 from the recent intermediate term bottom of -10.9% for the week ended July 23, 2010. Therefore, the current Annualized Growth Rate (preliminary) continues closer  to the cyclical trough than peak, but is well off the bottom.

Annualized Growth Rate (Chart) Below is a chart of the latest 46 weeks of the ECRI WLI Annualized Growth Rate, from the Weekly Leading Index cyclical peak for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported, March 5, 2011. The Post-Great Recession cyclical peak was +27.7% in early October 2009. A negative growth % was reached in early June 2010, remained negative for 28 consecutive weeks until the past 13 weeks.



Commentary The Annualized Growth Rate at +7.1% (preliminary) has continued positive 13 consecutive weeks and in an overall uptrend for 33 weeks, after being negative for 28 consecutive weeks (June 4, 2010 to December 10, 2010). The Weekly Leading Index at 130.4 (preliminary) is just below the intermediate term peak last week of 130.9. Both the Weekly Leading Index and the Annualized Growth Rate are in a short, intermediate, and long term uptrends and at very encouraging levels. The AGR is definitely off the bottom reached in late July, has continued uptrending, and is now at a 43-week high. The WLI continues above the 130.00 level. While this has not been indicative of a robust USA economic expansion, and actually was dismal at the bottom in July 2010, the overall uptrend of the Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate is encouraging and indicates an ongoing modest expansion of the USA economy. Per the ECRI, the Weekly Leading Index projects forward approximately 6 months and the Annualized Growth Rate is relative to the WLI. That is, the overall higher WLI in 2010 mitigates some of the recently negative AGR.


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* Data courtesy of the Economic Cycle Research Institute *

 
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