Friday, March 11, 2011

USA Monthly Food & Retail Sales at All-Time High! (Charts) *February sales continue upward trend*

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U.S. Census Bureau: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services


USA Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services at All-Time High in February!

Official Statement by U.S. Census Bureau The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $387.1 billion, an increase of 1.0 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 8.9 percent (±0.7%) above February 2010. Total sales for the December 2010 through February 2011 period were up 8.2 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The December 2010 to January 2011 percent change was revised from +0.3 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.7 percent (±0.3%).

Trend USA monthly sales for retail and food services continue a strong uptrend. February sales (advance estimate) were up $387.1 billion, up +$3.725 billion and +0.97% MoM from January and increased for the 8th consecutive month. Sales have increased 12 of the 14 months in 2010 and 2011 plus 20 of the past 23 months. The February sales were up +$31.553 billion and +8.89% YoY from February 2010. The February sales continue above the ascending 12-month moving average of $371.4 billion and have remained above since August 2009 (19 consecutive months). Monthly sales also continue above the strongly ascending 24-month moving average of $358.9 billion and have remained above since February 2010 (13 consecutive months). Monthly sales also continue above the slightly ascending 36-month moving average of $359.9 billion and have remained above since April 2010 (12 consecutive months). (The 12-month, 24-month, and 36-month moving averages charts are not shown on this page).

Cycle History USA monthly sales for retail & food services in February of $387.1 billion (advance estimate) are an all-time high, exceeding both the January 2011 prior month all-time high and the November 2007 Pre-Great Recession peak of $379.96 billion. The February sales (advance estimate) are up +$51.5 billion and +15.35% from the Great Recession cyclical bottom of $335.6 billion in December 2008.

Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services (Chart) Below is a 27 month chart of USA monthly sales for retail and food services from the Great Recession cyclical low in December 2008 of $335.6 billion through the latest month reported, February 2011, which is an all-time high. USA sales peaked in November 2007 at $379.96 billion and began downtrending in July 2008 at an increasing rate. The current January sales (advance estimate) and prior months of December and January sales have exceeded the Pre-Great Recession peak.


Annual Sales for Retail and Food Services (Chart) Below is an 8 year chart of USA annual sales for retail and food services from 2004 through 2011 (estimated). Annual sales for 2011 are estimated by extrapolating 2011 actual monthly sales based on a 12-month year. Annual sales peaked in 2007 at $4.454 trillion, dipped in 2008 at $4.409 trillion, and reached a Great Recession cyclical low in 2009 at $4.129 trillion. The 2010 annual sales bounced upwards from the 2009 cyclical low to $4.397 trillion, which is just below the 2008 and 2009 annual sales. The 2011 estimated annual sales (includes only January and February 2011 annualized) are off to a strong start.


Commentary February sales for retail and food services at $387.1 billion (advance estimate) are an all-time high. The past 2 months, December 2010 and January 2011, were the previous all-time highs. The past 3 months have exceeded the Pre-Great Recession November 2007 peak of $379.960 billion. Therefore, USA sales are well above the cyclical bottom of $335.6 billion in December 2008. Annual sales for 2010 were $4.397 trillion, which is higher than 2009 and just below 2007 and 2008. Since consumer spending, consumption is a significant portion of the USA economy (60%+ of GDP), this upsurge should strengthen USA economic (GDP) growth. Along with other USA, and Global, economic data for February reviewed in previous posts, the economic expansion continues into 2011.


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