Boom Doom Economy: USA Weekly Leading Index Rises Slightly (Charts) *Annualized growth rate at 19-week low*

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ECRI Economic Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

*** Updated June 17, 2011 for the week ended June 10, 2011 ***

USA Weekly Leading Index

Overview The USA Economic Weekly Leading Index (WLI) was up +0.2 to 127.8 (preliminary) for the week ended June 10, 2011. The Weekly Leading Index has previously decreased for 4 consecutive weeks and now increased 3 of the past 10 weeks.

Trend The Weekly Leading Index (preliminary) has reversed to a short-term uptrend (1 week). The intermediate-term (6 months) trend is mostly level with a slight increase. The long-term (12 months) trend continues increasing slightly.

Cycle History The Weekly Leading Index reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010. A Great Recession low of 105.4 was set for the week ended March 6, 2009.

Weekly Leading Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, from the Post-Great Recession cyclical peak 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported.

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Overview The WLI Annualized Growth Rate (AGR) was down -0.4% to +3.7% (preliminary) for the week ended June 10, 2011. The Annualized Growth Rate has decreased 8 consecutive weeks and is at a 19-week low (+3.7% for the week ended January 28, 2011).

Trend The Annualized Growth Rate (preliminary) is in a short-term downtrend, the intermediate-term (6 months) trend continues upwards, and the long-term (12 months) trend continues upwards.

Cycle History The Annualized Growth Rate reached a Post-Great Recession peak of +27.8% for the week ended October 9, 2009. A Great Recession low of -29.8% was set for the week ended December 5, 2008.

Annualized Growth Rate (Chart) Below is a chart of ECRI WLI Annualized Growth Rate, from the Weekly Leading Index cyclical peak for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported. A negative growth % was reached in early June 2010, remained negative for 28 consecutive weeks until the past 26 weeks (since the week ended December 24, 2010).

Commentary The Weekly Leading Index snapped a 4-week downtrend but the Annualized Growth Rate has decreased 8 consecutive weeks. However, the Annualized Growth Rate calculation is a 4-week moving average and lags the Weekly Leading Index. The current Weekly Leading Index at 127.8 (preliminary) is below the 49-week high of 8 weeks ago (131.8), which was the highest since the week ended May 7, 2010 (132.0). The current Annualized Growth Rate at +3.7% (preliminary) is below the 48-week high of 7 weeks ago (+7.7%), which was the highest since the week ended May 14, 2010 (+9.3%). The AGR is definitely off the bottom reached in late July 2010, although gains attained continue eroding. The WLI continues below the benchmark 130.00 level for 8 consecutive weeks (week ended April 15, 2011 at 131.8). While this has not been indicative of a robust USA economic expansion, and actually was dismal at the bottom in July 2010, the Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate overall continue at encouraging levels even though the trend is of concern. Both indicate an ongoing modest expansion of the USA economy. Per the ECRI, the Weekly Leading Index projects forward approximately 6 months and the Annualized Growth Rate is relative to the WLI and is a 4-week moving average.