USA Weekly Leading Index at 2-Year High!

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

USA Weekly Leading Index

Current Reading: 130.6 (+0.1)
Trend: Highest Since April 15, 2011 (131.7)
Post-Recession High: 135.2 (4-30-10)
Great Recession Low: 105.4 (3-6-09)
Pre-Recession Peak: 136.4 (1-11-08)

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Current Reading: +6.8% (+0.2)
Trend: Highest Since February 22, 2013 (+6.9%)
Post-Recession High: +27.7% (10-9-09)
Great Recession Low: -29.5% (12-5-08)
Pre-Recession Peak: +6.6% (5-18-07)

(Business Insider) A Stock Market Trend Has Developed That Coincided With The Last 3 Recessions In a new report, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan reiterates his thesis that the U.S. economy is in a recession.

This is a bar chart of S&P 500 operating earnings growth going back a quarter of a century on a consistent basis, as we understand from S&P. Others can choose their own definitions of operating earnings, but this is the data from S&P. In this chart, the height of the red bar indicates the number of consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth.



A Stock Market Trend Has Developed That Coincided With The Last 3 Recessions

ACHUTHAN: Look At These Charts And Tell Me We're Not In Recession

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. In March 2013, he has presented the report noted above.

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USA Leading Economic Index at Another Post-Recession High!

The Conference Board: USA Monthly Leading Index

USA Monthly Leading Economic Index
Current Index: 94.8
Post-Recession High: 94.8 (February 2013)



Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “This month’s increase in the U.S. LEI – the third consecutive – was widespread and driven by a majority of its components. Even though consumer expectations and manufacturing new orders remain weak, the economy continues to expand slowly, and may be developing some resilience against headwinds from, for example, federal spending cuts due to improving residential construction and labor market conditions. Meanwhile, the U.S. CEI posted a small gain following January’s sharp drop due to a decline in personal income.”

USA Monthly Composite Indexes



Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. economy is growing slowly now, and with this reading increases hope that it may pick up some momentum in the second half of the year. However, this latest report does not yet capture the recent effects of sequestration, which could dampen the pickup in GDP.”

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USA Weekly Leading Index Continues Below Peak

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

USA Weekly Leading Index

Current Reading: 129.3 (+0.9)
Post-Recession High: 135.2 (4-30-10)
Great Recession Low: 105.4 (3-6-09)
Pre-Recession Peak: 136.4 (1-11-08)

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Current Reading: +6.2% (-0.6)
Post-Recession High: +27.7% (10-9-09)
Great Recession Low: -29.5% (12-5-08)
Pre-Recession Peak: +6.6% (5-18-07)

(Business Insider) A Stock Market Trend Has Developed That Coincided With The Last 3 Recessions In a new report, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan reiterates his thesis that the U.S. economy is in a recession.

This is a bar chart of S&P 500 operating earnings growth going back a quarter of a century on a consistent basis, as we understand from S&P. Others can choose their own definitions of operating earnings, but this is the data from S&P. In this chart, the height of the red bar indicates the number of consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth.



A Stock Market Trend Has Developed That Coincided With The Last 3 Recessions

ACHUTHAN: Look At These Charts And Tell Me We're Not In Recession

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. In March 2013, he has presented the report noted above.

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USA Weekly Leading Index at 6-Week Low

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

USA Weekly Leading Index

Current Reading: 129.1 (-0.6)
Post-Recession High: 135.2 (4-30-10)
Great Recession Low: 105.4 (3-6-09)
Pre-Recession Peak: 136.4 (1-11-08)

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Current Reading: +7.6% (-0.8)
Post-Recession High: +27.7% (10-9-09)
Great Recession Low: -29.5% (12-5-08)
Pre-Recession Peak: +6.6% (5-18-07)

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Leading Economic Index at Post-Recession High!

The Conference Board: USA Monthly Leading Index

USA Monthly Leading Economic Index
Current Index: 94.1
Post-Recession High: 94.1 (January 2013)



Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. LEI rose again in January, pointing to a slow but continued expansion in economic activity in the near term. Despite continued weakness in manufacturers’ new orders and consumer expectations, improvements in housing permits and financial components helped boost the LEI in January. Meanwhile, the CEI also advanced in January, despite the slight decline in industrial production. Both the LEI and CEI have experienced widespread gains among their components over the past six months.”

USA Monthly Composite Indexes



Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The indicators point to an underlying economy that remains relatively sound but sluggish. Credit use has picked up, driven in part by relatively strong demand for auto loans. The biggest positive factor is housing. The housing market is now at twice the level reached during its recessionary lows, and will likely continue to improve through the spring, delivering some growth momentum to the labor market and the overall economy. The biggest risk, however, is the adverse impact of cuts in federal spending.”

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USA Weekly Leading Index Continues Below Peak

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

USA Weekly Leading Index

Current Reading: 129.6 (-0.6)
Post-Recession High: 135.2 (4-30-10)
Great Recession Low: 105.4 (3-6-09)
Pre-Recession Peak: 136.4 (1-11-08)

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Current Reading: +8.3% (-0.6)
Post-Recession High: +27.7% (10-9-09)
Great Recession Low: -29.5% (12-5-08)
Pre-Recession Peak: +6.6% (5-18-07)

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Leading Index Dips From Peak

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

The current Weekly Leading Index reading of 129.7 dipped from the prior week (130.7), which was the highest since the week ending April 15, 2011 (131.6). The WLI is well above the 5+ year average of 124.2 (January 2008 through January 2013). The current Weekly Annualized Growth Rate reading of +8.3 is well above the 5+ year average of -1.5 (January 2008 through January 2013).

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Leading Index Rises to 21-Month High!

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

The current Weekly Leading Index reading of 130.6 is the highest since the week ending April 15, 2011 (131.6) and is well above the 5+ year average of 124.2 (January 2008 through January 2013). The current Weekly Annualized Growth Rate reading of +7.2 is well above the 5+ year average of -1.6 (January 2008 through January 2013).

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Leading Index Surges to 20-Month High!

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

The current Weekly Leading Index reading of 130.4 is the highest since the week ending May 6, 2011 and is well above the 5-year average of 124.2 (January 2008 through January 2013). The current Weekly Annualized Growth Rate reading of +6.1 is well above the 5-year average of -1.6 (January 2008 through January 2013).

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Leading Index Reaches 17-Month High!

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

The current Weekly Leading Index reading of 128.3 is the highest since the week ending August 5, 2011 and is well above the 5-year average of 124.2 (January 2008 through January 2013). The current Weekly Annualized Growth Rate reading of +5.1 is well above the 5-year average of -1.6 (January 2008 through January 2013).

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Leading Index Continues at Higher Level

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

The current Weekly Leading Index reading of 126.4 is above the 5-year average of 124.2 (January 2008 through December 2012). The current Weekly Annualized Growth Rate reading of +4.9 is above the 5-year average of -1.7 (January 2008 through December 2012).

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Leading Index Rises to 73-Week High!

♦♦♦

ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Leading Economic Index Dips: "Six-month growth rate to zero"

The Conference Board: USA Monthly Leading Index

The November 2012 USA Monthly Leading Economic Index slightly decreased -0.2 to 95.8 (preliminary), just below the October 2012 post-recession high of 96.0. Overall, slow economic growth is forecast but downside risk exists via the global economy becoming a drag.

USA Monthly Leading Economic Index The 12-month moving average is 95.5 as of November 2012.



“The U.S. LEI decreased slightly in November, bringing its six-month growth rate to zero,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. “The LEI points to increasing risks of slowing economic activity in the near term, but the coincident economic index, measuring current conditions, continued to increase in November. Gains in the residential construction and financial components of the LEI have been roughly balanced with weak consumer expectations, manufacturing new orders and labor market indicators over the last six months.”

USA Monthly Composite Indexes The November 2012 readings are chart highs for the Lagging and Coincident Indicators and a nearly a chart high for the Leading Indicator. The Indexes have been revamped with benchmark revisions (2004 = 100.00).



Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The indicators reflect an economy that remains weak in the face of strong domestic and international headwinds, as it faces a looming fiscal cliff. Growth will likely be slow through the early months of 2013.”

USA LEI Components: Five of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in November. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were the interest rate spread, building permits, the Leading Credit Index™ (inverted), average weekly manufacturing hours, and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), stock prices, the ISM® new orders index, manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft*, and average consumer expectations for business conditions.

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USA Weekly Leading Index Flattens Near Peak

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Leading Index at 69-Week High!

♦♦♦

ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Leading Index: Recession Underway

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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