Economic Evolution: Robots Taking Human Jobs

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Industrial robots cooperating on the job.

Economic evolution has become robots taking human jobs. Artificial intelligence is replacing human intelligence. Technology, specifically algorithms, continues to replace humans in more and more complex jobs. These include military, financial, industrial, and service applications. In fact, some jobs lost during the Great Recession in the United States are not coming back due to robots.

Economic evolution is being driven by technology whereby more robots and software, and fewer humans, are doing the work resulting in a higher gross domestic product. The per capita GDP increases but fewer people are necessary - or have jobs.

This artificial intelligence can take many forms from being embedded and unseen in a computer to a more psychologically comforting humanoid robot. Though robots is a favorite term and evokes a science fiction risk, it is actually the algorithms within the software that direct the activities. The great leap forward is now self-learning algorithms, which therefore ultimately means robots that learn.

A huge breakthrough will be utilizing voice-recognition software for service jobs such as a fast food drive-through and customer service desks in stores. Once this occurs, yet more human service jobs will vanish and McDonald's and Wal-Mart will have very few, if any, human workers remaining.

This trend is increasing at an increasing rate and will become more and more evident in everyday life. Welcome to the 21st century of human and robot collaboration and coexistence - and algorithms replacing humans.

Are Robots Hurting Job Growth?

Technological advances, especially robotics, are revolutionizing the workplace, but not necessarily creating jobs. Steve Kroft reports.




Robots can be any shape or size, including humanoid.

Are Robots Hurting Job Growth?

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Global Economy Expands, Worldwide Job Creation

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month
Index > 50.0 is expansion, Index < 50.0 is contraction



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global economy continued to expand in February. Although the rate of expansion eased to a four-month low, the loss of momentum was only slight and improving inflows of new business raise the chances of a near-term re-acceleration.  Economic growth is also supporting further job creation, which will hopefully provide a helpful spur to demand."

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Global Services PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Worldwide Employment Increases "February data signalled an increase in global all-industry employment for the fifth month running, with the rate of jobs growth unchanged from January's 20-month peak. Service sector staffing levels continued to rise at a solid clip, whereas the rate of expansion in manufacturing payroll numbers remained negligible."

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Global Economy Expands, Worldwide Employment Increases

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: ""The global economy made a solid start to 2013, with both the manufacturing and service sectors seeing output rise. Output is being supported by the pillars of rising new business inflows, work on pipeline contracts and rising employment. This should help sustain the expansion during the opening quarter, even if growth remains below trend initially."

Global All-Industry, Manufacturing, Services PMI Indexes by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Worldwide Employment Increases "The US saw the most substantial increase in payroll numbers of the nations covered by the surveys, with the rate of expansion in workforce levels in the US hitting a near seven-and-a-half year peak. Employment also continued to rise in China, India, Brazil and Ireland. There was a return to jobs growth in the UK, while Japanese payroll numbers showed little change over the month. In contrast, the Eurozone saw further job losses, with reductions reported in each of the big-four euro area nations."

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Global Services Expand, Worldwide Employment Rises

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

Global Services PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global service sector continued to expand at the start of 2013, adding to the positive news coming out of the manufacturing surveys last week. Services employment also posted a further solid gain, a positive bellwether for confidence among companies. Rising employment should also help shore up household demand in the coming months."

Worldwide Employment Rises "Job creation was recorded for the fourth month running in January. Moreover, the rate of growth in payroll numbers was the fastest since October 2007. The only nations to report job losses were France, Italy, Spain and Hong Kong. The US saw the sharpest increase, with employment rising to the greatest extent in almost seven years."

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Global Manufacturing Grows, Worldwide Jobs Stabilize

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global manufacturing sector has made a bright start to 2013, with the PMI indicating that output growth recovered to a ten-month high following the soft patch seen during much of last year. The continued upward trend in PMI orders suggests the PMI, and global production growth, may strengthen further in the next few months."

Worldwide Jobs Stabilize "Manufacturing employment rose marginally for the second month running in January, mainly reflecting a solid increase in US staffing levels."

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World Bank Projects Slow Economic Growth

Global Economic Prospects 2013: Assuring Growth Over the Medium Term The World Bank projects slow economic growth in 2013. World economic growth is projected to be about the same as 2012: +2.4% vs. +2.3%. Some countries will accelerate growth in 2013 (Brazil, Russia, India, China) while some decelerate slightly (USA, OECD, Japan). GDP growth in general will rebound in 2014 and 2015, but the "road ahead remains bumpy".

High Income Countries GDP by Year The World will outperform the higher income countries and areas from 2013 through 2015. The USA is forecast to outperform the OECD, Japan, and the Euro Area from 2013 through 2015. However, the USA will underperform the World average. Japan is forecast to outpace the Euro Area, which will continue in a recession through 2013.



BRIC Countries GDP by Year China continues to lead BRIC and the World, but at a slowing pace. India continues in second with Brazil overtaking Russia in 2014. All 4 BRIC countries are projected to outperform the World average.



World GDP by Year Developing Countries continue to lead the World and High Income Countries.



World Bank Urges Developing Countries to Safeguard Economic Growth, as Road Ahead Remains Bumpy (Jan 13, 2012) WASHINGTON, January 15, 2013 – Four years after the onset of the global financial crisis, the world economy remains fragile and growth in high-income countries is weak. Developing countries need to focus on raising the growth potential of their economies, while strengthening buffers to deal with risks from the Euro Area and fiscal policy in the United States, says the World Bank in the newly-released Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report.

World Bank President: Growth in High and Low Income Countries Remains Weak "We can't wait for a return to growth in high-income countries," says World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. "So we have to continue to support developing countries in making investments in infrastructure, in health, in education." Four years after the onset of the global financial crisis, the world economy remains fragile and growth in high-income countries is weak, says the new Global Economic Prospects Report.



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The Conference Board Raises US GDP Projections

The Conference Board: The U.S. Economic Forecast

The Conference Board has raised their annual US GDP projections since last reviewed in October. The 2013 annual GDP projection was raised +0.4% to a still slow +1.8%. This was after reducing the projection in October a whopping -0.9% to a meager +1.4% from a hopeful +2.3%. This portends more of the same - slow, muddling growth with no restoration of pre-recession economic vitality plus a post-recession and subsequent near recovery low.

The 2012 GDP projection was increased slightly +0.1% to +2.2%, which is still better than the 2011 GDP of +1.8%. The initial estimate for 2014 is a more encouraging +2.4%.



Quarterly GDP projections were mixed, most notably Q4 2012 was slashed a game-changing -1.0% to +0.9% from +1.9%. The year 2013 is projected to begin slow in Q1 (+1.4%) and Q2 (+1.5%) before the pace quickens in Q3 (+2.4%). This is an improvement from the prior, and dismal, projections of +0.90%, +0.80%, and +2.4%, respectively.



Actual GDPs are per the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Projected GDPs are per The Conference Board.

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Global Economic Growth Accelerates

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global private sector output expanded at the fastest pace for nine months in December, rounding off the strongest quarter since Q1 2012. Trends in new orders and employment also improved, but there were further signs of companies supporting output levels by working through backlogs of work.

At 53.7 in December, up slightly from 53.6 in November, the Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM - signalled expansion for the forty-first successive month. The rate of increase was broadly in line with the average for this period.

Global All-Industry, Manufacturing, Services by Month



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Growth of the global economy peaked at a nine-month high in December, led by a solid increase in service sector output and signs of a muted recovery in manufacturing production. The global economy is therefore entering the new year on a positive footing and, with trends in demand and other forwardlooking indicators still supportive, should maintain this momentum in the coming months."

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Global Services Sector Growth Steady

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

December PMI data signalled a further solid increase in global service sector business activity. Companies benefited from the fastest growth in new orders since March 2012, encouraging many to raise employment.

At 54.8 in December, unchanged from November's eight month high, the JPMorgan Global Services Business Activity Index – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM - signalled expansion for the forty-first month in a row. The average reading for Q4 2012 as a whole is 53.8, the highest since the opening quarter of that year

Global Services PMI by Month



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Growth of the global service sector was maintained at November's eight-month peak, rounding off a positive final quarter of 2012 for service providers. Ongoing upturns in both new business and employment also bode well for growth trends in the opening quarter of 2013".

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Global Manufacturing Rebounds, Worldwide Jobs Stabilize

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI by Month

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "PMI survey indices for output, new orders and employment continued to lift at the end of 2012, as the global manufacturing sector stabilises following a softer patch in the middle of the year. With the rate of inventory accumulation also remaining low, the sector should, barring any disruptions, advance further into expansion territory at the start of 2013."

Worldwide Jobs Stabilize "The Eurozone and Japan remained the main drags on global manufacturing production and employment in December. The euro area saw output contract for the tenth month running, while jobs were cut for the eleventh straight month. The downturn in Japan gathered pace, with production falling at the sharpest pace since early-2011 and payroll numbers declining for the third consecutive month. Employment rose in the US, Canada, Mexico, India, Taiwan, Turkey, Ireland and Vietnam, and was broadly unchanged in China, the UK, South Korea and Brazil."

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Global Economic Growth Continues at Slow Pace

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month



November saw the fastest expansion of global economic output since March. Growth of service sector business activity accelerated sharply, while the manufacturing sector stabilised following a four-month period of contraction.

The Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – rose to an eight-month high of 53.7 in November, and has now signalled expansion in each of the past 40 months. However, at its current level, the Output Index is only consistent with a moderate rate of increase in global GDP

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Although global GDP growth remains muted, the latest PMI data are at least showing positive signs in the service sector at a time when forward-looking indicators for manufacturing suggest the sector should move back into growth territory around year-end. Cost-caution still prevails across the global economy, however, which will continue to hold back employment over the near-term horizon."

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



Global Services PMI by Month

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Global Services Sector Rebounds Sharply

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

Global Services PMI by Month



Growth of the global service sector continued in November, as the rate of increase accelerated sharply to hit an eight-month peak

At 54.9 in November, up from 51.9 in October, the JPMorgan Global Services Business Activity Index – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – stayed in expansion territory for the fortieth consecutive month.

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Growth of the global service sector posted a solid acceleration in November, with rates of expansion in output and new orders hitting eight-month highs. This wasn't reflected in the labour market, however, as cost-cautious service providers refrained from raising capacity."

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Global Manufacturing Contracts for 6th Consecutive Month, Worldwide Job Losses Continue

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Global manufacturing appears to be lifting into year’s end. Survey indexes of output, new orders and employment continue to improve, albeit from low levels, while the rate of finished goods inventory accumulation is indicated to be quite low. This pattern typically heralds faster output gains."

Worldwide Jobs Losses Continue "November saw global manufacturing employment reduced for the fifth consecutive month. However, the rate of loss has remained only marginal throughout this sequence. The main centre of job creation was North America, with modest increases recorded in the US, Canada and Mexico. Payroll numbers were reduced in China, Japan, South Korea and (on average) across the European Union."

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Global Economic Growth Remains Subdued

JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month



The global economy started Q4 2012 on a lacklustre footing. Rates of expansion in output and new orders remained well below their long-run trends, as growth at service providers was offset by the ongoing contraction at manufacturers.

The Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 51.3 in October, down from 52.4 in September. The headline index has signalled expansion for 39 successive months. However, following a brief spell of solid growth during the opening quarter of the year, the rate of expansion since then has remained weak overall.

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The start of the final quarter has seen global economic growtt continue to track at a below long run trend pace. A contracting manufacturing sector remains the main drag, while the larger service sector remains on a subdued expansion path. The trend in employment has also been volatile in recent months, as companies continue to assess future growth prospects."

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



Global Services PMI by Month

Global Services Sector Growth Slows in October

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

Global Services PMI by Month



The rate of expansion in the global service sector moderated at the start of Q4 2012, as growth of both business activity and new business eased in October.

The JPMorgan Global Services Business Activity Index – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – edged down to 52.1 in October, from September's six-month high of 53.8. The headline index has nonetheless signalled expansion in each of the past 39 months.

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global service sector continued to expand in October. Although rates of growth in both output and new orders lost momentum, companies were sufficiently encouraged to raise employment for the second time in the past three months. Cost pressures also remained elevated compared to mid-year."

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Global Manufacturing Contracts for 5th Consecutive Month, Worldwide Job Losses Resume

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



"The downturn in the global manufacturing sector moderated in October. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI - a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM - rose for the second month running to reach 49.2, its highest reading during the current five-month period of contraction."

Worldwide Jobs Losses Resume "Subsequently, global manufacturing employment was reduced for the third time in the past four months. Job losses were seen across most of the Western European nations, China, Japan, Australia, South Africa and Brazil. In contrast, the US, Mexico and Canada reported higher employment"

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IMF: "Gloomier Picture of the Global Economy"

International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook

The latest IMF World Economic Outlook again seems one step behind. This is really a World Economic Review, not an Outlook. The latest WEO pronounces a slower global economic recovery and qualifies with heightened risk. Risk must always be mentioned by all who predict and dare to wear the prophet's mantle. The prior WEO reviewed in April was titled "Global Economic Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain".

Key Points:
■ IMF revises forecast down, global growth projected at 3.3 percent this year
■ World trade slumps, hurting emerging markets, developing countries
■ Prospects could improve if clouds over euro area, U.S. “fiscal cliff” are lifted

Overall, most of the GDPs reviewed and charted below were adjusted plus or minus 0.1% to 0.3% for the 2012 and 2013 projections.  Notable GDP decreases since the April 2012 World Economic Outlook were:
■ UK was decreased -0.6% in 2012 to -0.4%, from +0.2%
■ Brazil was decreased -0.6% in 2013 to +4.0%, from +4.6%
■ Euro Area was decreased -0.5% in 2013 to +0.2%, from +0.7%
■ India was decreased -0.5% in 2013 to +6.0%, from +6.5%
■ Advanced Economies were decreased -0.4% in 2013 to +1.5%, from +1.9%

IMF Sees Heightened Risks Sapping Slower Global Recovery (October 9, 2012)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented a gloomier picture of the global economy than a few months ago, saying prospects have deteriorated further and risks increased. Overall, the IMF’s forecast for global growth was marked down to 3.3 percent this year and a still sluggish 3.6 percent in 2013.

The recovery continues, but it has weakened. In advanced economies, growth is now too low to make a substantial dent in unemployment. And in major emerging market economies, growth that had been strong earlier has also decreased. Relative to our April 2012 forecasts, our forecasts for 2013 growth have been revised from 2.0 percent down to 1.5 percent for advanced economies, and from 6.0 percent down to 5.6 percent for emerging market and developing economies.

Regional Key Points:
■ Europe: In the Orbit of the Euro Area Crisis
■ The United States and Canada: Growth Continues, but Slack Remains
■ Asia: Calibrating a Soft Landing
■ Latin America and the Caribbean: Losing Some Buoyancy
■ Commonwealth of Independent States: Growth Is Still Robust
■ Middle East and North Africa: A Two-Speed Region
■ Sub-Saharan Africa: A Continued Favorable Outlook

Actual and Projected GDPs by Year









IMF Sees Heightened Risks Sapping Slower Global Recovery The International Monetary Fund presented a gloomier picture of the global economy than a few months ago, saying prospects have deteriorated further and risks increased.



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Global Economic Growth Rebounds

JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month



September PMI data signalled a modest acceleration in the pace of global economic growth. The rate of expansion hit a six-month high, but remained below-trend compared to that seen since the recovery began in August 2009.

The Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 52.5 in September, up from 50.9 in August. The average reading during Q3 as a whole (51.7) is little changed from the three-year low reached in Q2 (51.6).

Please note that, due to later release dates than usual, September services data for China, India and whole economy data for Hong Kong were not available to include in this month's global PMI. August data have been used as a proxy for the September calculations.

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



Global Services PMI by Month