Global Economy Expands, Worldwide Job Creation

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month
Index > 50.0 is expansion, Index < 50.0 is contraction



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global economy continued to expand in February. Although the rate of expansion eased to a four-month low, the loss of momentum was only slight and improving inflows of new business raise the chances of a near-term re-acceleration.  Economic growth is also supporting further job creation, which will hopefully provide a helpful spur to demand."

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Global Services PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Worldwide Employment Increases "February data signalled an increase in global all-industry employment for the fifth month running, with the rate of jobs growth unchanged from January's 20-month peak. Service sector staffing levels continued to rise at a solid clip, whereas the rate of expansion in manufacturing payroll numbers remained negligible."

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USA Services Sector Grows, Employment Increases

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ISM: Monthly USA NMI

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Month
NMI > 50.0 is expansion, NMI < 50.0 is contraction



Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, "The NMI™ registered 56 percent in February, 0.8 percentage point higher than the 55.2 percent registered in January. This indicates continued growth at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. This month's reading also reflects the highest NMI™ since February 2012, when the index registered 56.1 percent. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 56.9 percent, which is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 56.4 percent reported in January, reflecting growth for the 43rd consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 3.8 percentage points to 58.2 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 0.3 percentage point to 57.2 percent, indicating growth in employment for the seventh consecutive month. The Prices Index increased 3.7 percentage points to 61.7 percent, indicating prices increased at a faster rate in February when compared to January. According to the NMI™, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in February. The majority of respondents' comments reflect a growing optimism about the trend of the economy and overall business conditions."

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Year
NMI > 50.0 is expansion, NMI < 50.0 is contraction



American Services Sector Employment Increases "Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in February for the seventh consecutive month. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 57.2 percent, which reflects a decrease of 0.3 percentage point when compared to the 57.5 percent registered in January. Eleven industries reported increased employment, five industries reported decreased employment, and two industries reported unchanged employment compared to January. Comments from respondents include: "Positions are still being filled, but slowly" and "Staff added to accommodate demand."

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Global Economy Expands, Worldwide Employment Increases

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: ""The global economy made a solid start to 2013, with both the manufacturing and service sectors seeing output rise. Output is being supported by the pillars of rising new business inflows, work on pipeline contracts and rising employment. This should help sustain the expansion during the opening quarter, even if growth remains below trend initially."

Global All-Industry, Manufacturing, Services PMI Indexes by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Worldwide Employment Increases "The US saw the most substantial increase in payroll numbers of the nations covered by the surveys, with the rate of expansion in workforce levels in the US hitting a near seven-and-a-half year peak. Employment also continued to rise in China, India, Brazil and Ireland. There was a return to jobs growth in the UK, while Japanese payroll numbers showed little change over the month. In contrast, the Eurozone saw further job losses, with reductions reported in each of the big-four euro area nations."

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Global Services Expand, Worldwide Employment Rises

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

Global Services PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global service sector continued to expand at the start of 2013, adding to the positive news coming out of the manufacturing surveys last week. Services employment also posted a further solid gain, a positive bellwether for confidence among companies. Rising employment should also help shore up household demand in the coming months."

Worldwide Employment Rises "Job creation was recorded for the fourth month running in January. Moreover, the rate of growth in payroll numbers was the fastest since October 2007. The only nations to report job losses were France, Italy, Spain and Hong Kong. The US saw the sharpest increase, with employment rising to the greatest extent in almost seven years."

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USA Services Sector Expands at Slower Rate, Employment Rises

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ISM: Monthly USA NMI

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Month
NMI > 50.0 is expansion, NMI < 50.0 is contraction



Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, "The NMI registered 55.2 percent in January, 0.5 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted 55.7 percent registered in December. This indicates continued growth at a slightly slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 56.4 percent, which is 4.4 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted 60.8 percent reported in December, reflecting growth for the 42nd consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased by 3.9 percentage points to 54.4 percent, and the Employment Index increased 2.2 percentage points to 57.5 percent, indicating growth in employment for the sixth consecutive month. The Prices Index increased 1.9 percentage points to 58 percent, indicating prices increased at a faster rate in January when compared to December. According to the NMI™, eight non-manufacturing industries reported growth in January. Respondents' comments are mixed about the economy and business conditions; however, the majority of respondents are optimistic about the overall direction."

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Year
NMI > 50.0 is expansion, NMI < 50.0 is contraction



American Services Sector Employment Rises "Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the sixth consecutive month. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 57.5 percent, which reflects an increase of 2.2 percentage points when compared to the seasonally adjusted 55.3 percent registered in December. Nine industries reported increased employment, seven industries reported decreased employment, and two industries reported unchanged employment compared to December. Comments from respondents include: "Hiring more sales and marketing staff" and "Open and new positions were filled."

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Global Economic Growth Accelerates

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global private sector output expanded at the fastest pace for nine months in December, rounding off the strongest quarter since Q1 2012. Trends in new orders and employment also improved, but there were further signs of companies supporting output levels by working through backlogs of work.

At 53.7 in December, up slightly from 53.6 in November, the Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM - signalled expansion for the forty-first successive month. The rate of increase was broadly in line with the average for this period.

Global All-Industry, Manufacturing, Services by Month



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Growth of the global economy peaked at a nine-month high in December, led by a solid increase in service sector output and signs of a muted recovery in manufacturing production. The global economy is therefore entering the new year on a positive footing and, with trends in demand and other forwardlooking indicators still supportive, should maintain this momentum in the coming months."

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Global Services Sector Growth Steady

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

December PMI data signalled a further solid increase in global service sector business activity. Companies benefited from the fastest growth in new orders since March 2012, encouraging many to raise employment.

At 54.8 in December, unchanged from November's eight month high, the JPMorgan Global Services Business Activity Index – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM - signalled expansion for the forty-first month in a row. The average reading for Q4 2012 as a whole is 53.8, the highest since the opening quarter of that year

Global Services PMI by Month



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Growth of the global service sector was maintained at November's eight-month peak, rounding off a positive final quarter of 2012 for service providers. Ongoing upturns in both new business and employment also bode well for growth trends in the opening quarter of 2013".

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USA Services Sector Expands to 10-Month High

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ISM: Monthly USA NMI

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Month



Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, "The NMI™ registered 56.1 percent in December, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 54.7 percent registered in November. This indicates continued growth at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 60.3 percent, which is 0.9 percentage point lower than the 61.2 percent reported in November, reflecting growth for the 41st consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 1.2 percentage points to 59.3 percent. The Employment Index increased by 6 percentage points to 56.3 percent, indicating growth in employment for the fifth consecutive month at a significantly faster rate. The Prices Index decreased 0.4 percentage point to 56.6 percent, indicating prices increased at a slightly slower rate in December when compared to November. According to the NMI™, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in December. Respondents' comments remain mixed and are mostly positive about business conditions and the economy."

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Year

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Global Economic Growth Continues at Slow Pace

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month



November saw the fastest expansion of global economic output since March. Growth of service sector business activity accelerated sharply, while the manufacturing sector stabilised following a four-month period of contraction.

The Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – rose to an eight-month high of 53.7 in November, and has now signalled expansion in each of the past 40 months. However, at its current level, the Output Index is only consistent with a moderate rate of increase in global GDP

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Although global GDP growth remains muted, the latest PMI data are at least showing positive signs in the service sector at a time when forward-looking indicators for manufacturing suggest the sector should move back into growth territory around year-end. Cost-caution still prevails across the global economy, however, which will continue to hold back employment over the near-term horizon."

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



Global Services PMI by Month

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Global Services Sector Rebounds Sharply

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

Global Services PMI by Month



Growth of the global service sector continued in November, as the rate of increase accelerated sharply to hit an eight-month peak

At 54.9 in November, up from 51.9 in October, the JPMorgan Global Services Business Activity Index – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – stayed in expansion territory for the fortieth consecutive month.

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Growth of the global service sector posted a solid acceleration in November, with rates of expansion in output and new orders hitting eight-month highs. This wasn't reflected in the labour market, however, as cost-cautious service providers refrained from raising capacity."

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USA Services Sector: "Cautious optimism about economic conditions"

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ISM: Monthly USA NMI

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Month



Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, "The NMI registered 54.7 percent in November, 0.5 percentage point higher than the 54.2 percent registered in October. This indicates continued growth at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 61.2 percent, which is 5.8 percentage points higher than the 55.4 percent reported in October, reflecting growth for the 40th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 3.3 percentage points to 58.1 percent. The Employment Index decreased by 4.6 percentage points to 50.3 percent, indicating growth in employment for the fourth consecutive month but at a slower rate. The Prices Index decreased 8.6 percentage points to 57 percent, indicating prices increased at a slower rate in November when compared to October. According to the NMI, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in November. Respondents' comments are mixed; however, the majority of survey respondents reflect a cautious optimism about current economic conditions."

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Year

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Global Economic Growth Remains Subdued

JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month



The global economy started Q4 2012 on a lacklustre footing. Rates of expansion in output and new orders remained well below their long-run trends, as growth at service providers was offset by the ongoing contraction at manufacturers.

The Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 51.3 in October, down from 52.4 in September. The headline index has signalled expansion for 39 successive months. However, following a brief spell of solid growth during the opening quarter of the year, the rate of expansion since then has remained weak overall.

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The start of the final quarter has seen global economic growtt continue to track at a below long run trend pace. A contracting manufacturing sector remains the main drag, while the larger service sector remains on a subdued expansion path. The trend in employment has also been volatile in recent months, as companies continue to assess future growth prospects."

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



Global Services PMI by Month

Global Services Sector Growth Slows in October

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

Global Services PMI by Month



The rate of expansion in the global service sector moderated at the start of Q4 2012, as growth of both business activity and new business eased in October.

The JPMorgan Global Services Business Activity Index – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – edged down to 52.1 in October, from September's six-month high of 53.8. The headline index has nonetheless signalled expansion in each of the past 39 months.

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global service sector continued to expand in October. Although rates of growth in both output and new orders lost momentum, companies were sufficiently encouraged to raise employment for the second time in the past three months. Cost pressures also remained elevated compared to mid-year."

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USA Services Sector: "Continued growth at slightly slower rate"

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ISM: Monthly USA NMI

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Month



Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, "The NMI registered 54.2 percent in October, 0.9 percentage point lower than the 55.1 percent registered in September. This indicates continued growth this month at a slightly slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 55.4 percent, which is 4.5 percentage points lower than the 59.9 percent reported in September, reflecting growth for the 39th consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 54.8 percent. The Employment Index increased by 3.8 percentage points to 54.9 percent, indicating growth in employment for the third consecutive month. The Prices Index decreased 2.5 percentage points to 65.6 percent, indicating prices increased at a slower rate in October when compared to September. According to the NMI™, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in October. The majority of the respondents' comments reflect a positive but guarded outlook on business conditions and the economy.".

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Year

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Global Economic Growth Rebounds

JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month



September PMI data signalled a modest acceleration in the pace of global economic growth. The rate of expansion hit a six-month high, but remained below-trend compared to that seen since the recovery began in August 2009.

The Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 52.5 in September, up from 50.9 in August. The average reading during Q3 as a whole (51.7) is little changed from the three-year low reached in Q2 (51.6).

Please note that, due to later release dates than usual, September services data for China, India and whole economy data for Hong Kong were not available to include in this month's global PMI. August data have been used as a proxy for the September calculations.

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



Global Services PMI by Month

Global Services Sector Expands in September

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

Global Services PMI by Month



Global service sector output expanded at the fastest pace for six months in September, underpinned by improved inflows of new business and work on existing contracts.

The JPMorgan Global Services Business Activity Index – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – rose to 54.0 in September, from 52.0 in August, to remain above the neutral 50.0 mark for the thirty-eighth month running.

Please note that, due to later release dates than usual, September data for China, India and Hong Kong were not available to include in this month's global services PMI. August data have been used as a proxy for the September calculations.

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USA Services Sector: "Continued growth at a faster rate"

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ISM: Monthly USA NMI

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Month



Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, "The NMI™ registered 55.1 percent in September, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 53.7 percent registered in August. This indicates continued growth this month at a faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 59.9 percent, which is 4.3 percentage points higher than the 55.6 percent reported in August, reflecting growth for the 38th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 4 percentage points to 57.7 percent. The Employment Index decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 51.1 percent, indicating growth in employment for the second consecutive month but at a slower rate. The Prices Index increased 3.8 percentage points to 68.1 percent, indicating higher month-over-month prices when compared to August. According to the NMI™, 12 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in September. Respondents' comments continue to be mixed; however, the majority indicate a slightly more positive perspective on current business conditions.".

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Year

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Global Economic Growth Remains Subdued

JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global economy remained in a low growth gear in August, with the weak performing manufacturing sector and stagnating world market demand providing the main drags on output growth. Modest job creation is a positive, but with demand weak and inflationary pressures beginning to rise, the performance of the global economy is likely to remain subdued in the coming months."

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



Global Services PMI by Month