Economic Evolution: Robots Taking Human Jobs

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Industrial robots cooperating on the job.

Economic evolution has become robots taking human jobs. Artificial intelligence is replacing human intelligence. Technology, specifically algorithms, continues to replace humans in more and more complex jobs. These include military, financial, industrial, and service applications. In fact, some jobs lost during the Great Recession in the United States are not coming back due to robots.

Economic evolution is being driven by technology whereby more robots and software, and fewer humans, are doing the work resulting in a higher gross domestic product. The per capita GDP increases but fewer people are necessary - or have jobs.

This artificial intelligence can take many forms from being embedded and unseen in a computer to a more psychologically comforting humanoid robot. Though robots is a favorite term and evokes a science fiction risk, it is actually the algorithms within the software that direct the activities. The great leap forward is now self-learning algorithms, which therefore ultimately means robots that learn.

A huge breakthrough will be utilizing voice-recognition software for service jobs such as a fast food drive-through and customer service desks in stores. Once this occurs, yet more human service jobs will vanish and McDonald's and Wal-Mart will have very few, if any, human workers remaining.

This trend is increasing at an increasing rate and will become more and more evident in everyday life. Welcome to the 21st century of human and robot collaboration and coexistence - and algorithms replacing humans.

Are Robots Hurting Job Growth?

Technological advances, especially robotics, are revolutionizing the workplace, but not necessarily creating jobs. Steve Kroft reports.




Robots can be any shape or size, including humanoid.

Are Robots Hurting Job Growth?

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 6-Week Low

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Current Claims: 339,000 and -16,000
Trend: 6-week low
2013 weekly average: 352,000 (rounded)
2012 weekly average: 375,000 (rounded)

U.S. Department of Labor... In the week ending April 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 339,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 355,000. The 4-week moving average was 357,500, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average of 362,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending April 13, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 13 was 3,000,000, a decrease of 93,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,093,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,071,750, a decrease of 17,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,089,250.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 19-Week High

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Current Claims: 385,000 and +28,000
Trend: 19-week high
2013 weekly average: 353,000 (rounded)
2012 weekly average: 375,000 (rounded)

U.S. Department of Labor... In the week ending March 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 385,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 357,000. The 4-week moving average was 354,250, an increase of 11,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 343,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending March 23, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 23 was 3,063,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,071,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,067,250, a decrease of 10,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,077,750.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 7-Week Low

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Current Claims: 332,000 and -10,000
Trend: 7-week low
2013 weekly average: 351,000 (rounded)
2012 weekly average: 375,000 (rounded)

U.S. Department of Labor... In the week ending March 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 332,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 342,000. The 4-week moving average was 346,750, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 349,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending March 2, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 2 was 3,024,000, a decrease of 89,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,113,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,098,250, a decrease of 28,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,126,500.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Employment Trends Index at Post-Recession High!

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The Conference Board: Employment Trends Index

(The Conference Board) "The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™(ETI) increased in February. The index now stands at 111.14, up from 109.93 (an upward revision) in January. The February figure is 3.2 percent higher than a year ago."

Employment Trends Index by Month

Current Index: 111.14 (Post-Recession High)
Post-Recession High: 111.14 (February 2013)
Great Recession Low: 87.76 (May 2009)
Pre-Recession High: 123.83 (March 2007)

“As a result of the large increase in February, and positive revisions to earlier months, the Employment Trends index is signaling an improving employment environment,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “However, even though the labor market has gained in recent months, the looming sequester is likely to slow the pace of job creation in the near term.”

Employment Trends Index by Year

2013 Index Average: 111
Post-Recession High: 111 (2013)
Great Recession Low: 89 (2009)
Pre-Recession High: 122 (2006 and 2007)

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USA Labor and Employment Ratios Remain at Low Levels

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Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

USA Labor Force Participation Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Current Rate: 63.5% (-0.1)
Trend: Below 64% since January 2012
Recent Lows: 63.5% (February 2013 and August 2012)
All-Time High: 67.3% (January through April 2000)

USA Employment to Population Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted
Current Rate: 58.6% (no change)
Trend: Below 60% since March 2009
Recent Lows: 58.2% (November 2010, June 2011, July 2011)
All-Time High: 64.7% (April 2000)



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3 Million USA Jobs Remaining to Be Restored from Great Recession

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Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

Using the government's seasonally adjusted data, net job losses were -8.67 million during the 2008 - 2009 Great Recession. Net job gains have been +5.67 million in the subsequent 2010 - 2013 recovery. That leaves 3.00 million jobs to be restored to get the USA to back to even, to the beginning of 2008 and before the Great Recession. This does not count any net increase in people entering the work force since the end of the Great Recession, American workers taking lower paying jobs, or Americans leaving the workforce. This is probably the best-case scenario.

In the first chart below, for the current year 2013, jobs data has been extrapolated based on the number of months reported to obtain an annualized net gain (loss).

USA Jobs Gains (Losses) by Year



USA Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



USA Private Sector Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



USA Public Sector Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



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USA Unemployment Rate Dips to 7.7%, Lowest Since December 2008

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Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

(Bureau of Labor Statistics) Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 236,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, construction, and health care.

USA Unemployment Rate by Month



USA Underemployment Rate by Month



USA Total Unemployed by Month



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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 6-Week Low

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Current Claims: 340,000 and -7,000
Trend: 6-week low
2013 weekly average: 353,000 (rounded)
2012 weekly average: 375,000 (rounded)

U.S. Department of Labor... In the week ending March 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 340,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 347,000. The 4-week moving average was 348,750, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average of 355,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending February 23, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 23 was 3,094,000, an increase of 3,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,091,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,121,750, a decrease of 37,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,159,250.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Drop to 344K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Current Claims: 344,000 and -22,000
Trend: 2-week low
2013 weekly average: 354,000 (rounded)
2012 weekly average: 375,000 (rounded)

U.S. Department of Labor... In the week ending February 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 344,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 366,000. The 4-week moving average was 355,000, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of 361,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending February 16, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 16 was 3,074,000, a decrease of 91,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,165,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,155,000, a decrease of 35,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,190,500.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Rise to 362K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Current Claims: 362,000 and +20,000
Trend: 2-week high
2013 weekly average: 355,000
2012 weekly average: 375,000

(U.S. Department of Labor) In the week ending February 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 362,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 342,000. The 4-week moving average was 360,750, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average of 352,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending February 9, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 9 was 3,148,000, an increase of 11,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,137,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,186,250, a decrease of 6,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,193,000.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Labor and Employment Ratios Continue at Low Levels

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Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

USA Labor Force Participation Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Current Rate: 63.6% (no change)
Trend: Below 64% since January 2012
Recent Low: 63.5% (August 2012)
All-Time High: 67.3% (January through April 2000)

USA Employment to Population Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted
Current Rate: 58.6% (no change)
Trend: Below 60% since March 2009
Recent Lows: 58.2% (November 2010, June 2011, July 2011)
All-Time High: 64.7% (April 2000)



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3.2 Million USA Jobs Remaining to Be Restored from Great Recession

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Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

Using the government's seasonally adjusted data, net job losses were 8.67 million during the 2008 - 2009 Great Recession. Net job gains have been 5.45 million in the subsequent 2010 - 2013 recovery. That leaves 3.22 million jobs to be restored to get the USA to back to even, to the beginning of 2008 and before the Great Recession. This does not count any net increase in people entering the work force since the end of the Great Recession. This is probably the best-case scenario.

In the first chart below, for the current year 2013, jobs data has been extrapolated based on the number of months reported to obtain an annualized net gain (loss).

USA Jobs Gains (Losses) by Year



USA Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



USA Private Sector Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



USA Public Sector Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



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USA Unemployment Rate Rises to 7.9%

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Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

(Bureau of Labor Statistics) Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Retail trade, construction, health care, and wholesale trade added jobs over the month.

USA Unemployment Rate by Month



USA Underemployment Rate by Month



USA Total Unemployed by Month



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USA Employment Trends Index Near Post-Recession High

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The Conference Board: Employment Trends Index

(The Conference Board) "The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) edged down in January. The index now stands at 109.38, down from 109.47 in December. The January figure is 2.7 percent higher than a year ago."

Employment Trends Index by Month

“Despite the dip in January, the Employment Trends Index continues to signal a moderate improvement in the labor market,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “However, employment growth has outpaced economic growth in recent months, and the ETI suggests that this rapid pace of improvement in hiring may not continue in the coming months.”

Employment Trends Index by Year

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Drop to 341K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Current Claims: 341,000 and -27,000
Trend: 3-week low
2013 weekly average: 353,000
2012 weekly average: 375,000

(U.S. Department of Labor) In the week ending February 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 341,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 368,000. The 4-week moving average was 352,500, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average of 351,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending February 2, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 2 was 3,114,000, a decrease of 130,000 from the preceding week's unrevised level of 3,244,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,187,250, a decrease of 28,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,216,000.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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