Boom Doom Economy: USA Weekly Leading Index Rises to 3-Week High (Charts) *Annualized growth rate dips for 3rd week*

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ECRI Economic Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

*** Updated May 13, 2011 for the week ended May 6, 2011 ***

USA Weekly Leading Index

Overview The USA Economic Weekly Leading Index (WLI) was up +1.0 to 129.7 (preliminary) for the week ended May 6, 2011. This is a 3-week high.

Trend The Weekly Leading Index (preliminary) has reversed to a short-term uptrend, continues in an intermediate-term (6 months) uptrend, and the long-term (12 months) trend is level.

Cycle History The Weekly Leading Index reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010. A Great Recession low of 105.4 was set for the week ended March 6, 2009.

Weekly Leading Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, from the Post-Great Recession cyclical peak 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported.

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Overview The WLI Annualized Growth Rate (AGR) was down -0.2% to +6.4% (preliminary) for the week ended May 6, 2011. The Annualized Growth Rate has increased or held steady 35 weeks in the past 41 weeks.

Trend The Annualized Growth Rate (preliminary) is in a 3-week short-term downtrend, the intermediate-term (6 months) trend continues upwards, and the long-term (12 months) trend is downtrending and still below the late 2009 and early 2010 highs.

Cycle History The Annualized Growth Rate reached a Post-Great Recession peak of +27.8% for the week ended October 9, 2009. A Great Recession low of -29.8% was set for the week ended December 5, 2008.

Annualized Growth Rate (Chart) Below is a chart of ECRI WLI Annualized Growth Rate, from the Weekly Leading Index cyclical peak for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported. A negative growth % was reached in early June 2010, remained negative for 28 consecutive weeks until the past 21 weeks.

Commentary The current Weekly Leading Index at 129.7 (preliminary) is below the 49-week high of 3 weeks ago (131.7), which was the highest since the week ended May 7, 2010 (132.0). The current Annualized Growth Rate at +6.4% (preliminary) is below the 48-week high of 3 weeks ago (+7.7%), which was the highest since the week ended May 14, 2010 (+9.3%). The Weekly Leading Index has reversed and is in a short-term uptrend. The Annualized Growth Rate continues in a 3-week short-term downtrend. Bot are in intermediate-term uptrends. The WLI long-term trend is level while the AGR long-term trend is down. However, both continue at very encouraging levels. The AGR is definitely off the bottom reached in late July, and is holding the gains made. The WLI continues below the benchmark 130.00 level. While this has not been indicative of a robust USA economic expansion, and actually was dismal at the bottom in July 2010, the Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate overall are encouraging and indicate an ongoing modest expansion of the USA economy. Per the ECRI, the Weekly Leading Index projects forward approximately 6 months and the Annualized Growth Rate is relative to the WLI. That is, the overall higher WLI in 2010 mitigates some of the formerly negative AGR.