Saturday, October 20, 2012

USA Employment Trends Index: "Lackluster job growth"

The Conference Board: Employment Trends Index

The September 2012 Employment Trends Index decreased slightly -0.37 to 107.86 (preliminary), which is the 3rd decrease in the past 4 months and a 3-month low. The ETI has continued above the 100.00 benchmark for 21 consecutive months, after 26 consecutive months below (November 2008 through December 2010).

This does not confirm the official Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate of 7.8%. Whether you like or dislike, agree or disagree with Jack Welch, former CEO of GE, he does have the right to question the latest Washington Jobs Propaganda. I don't particularly like Mr. Welch, but just because Washington says something, does not mean it is Gospel.

In fact, I propose to you that the criminals inside the Beltway are chronic liars and thieves and call themselves Democrats and Republicans. There are several economists outside of The Matrix who do not believe the BLS bull, including John Williams and Peter Schiff. At best the latest official unemployment rate was a "statistical fluke", but hey!, how about getting the "fluke" out of the statistics? As the old saying goes, "if you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything".

On October 5, Jack Welch tweeted a few minutes after the Bureau of Labor Statistics proclaimed the September 2012 official unemployment rate was 7.8%: "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers." Well, it is unbelievable and the major media duly reports this disinformation as fact and expects us to believe. The polls show we do not believe the corporate advertising delivery system, aka major media, which is as deceptive as the Beltway Bandits they report about and are in bed with.

The ETI continues at historically low levels, below the overall average of 110.5 since January 2000. However, the reading has rebounded to just below the August 2008 level of 108.54, which was during the decline of the ETI into the Great Recession.

Employment Trends Index by Month The Conference Board Employment Trends Index reached a Post-Great Recession high of 108.50 in May 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 87.78 in May 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 123.86 in March 2007.

Employment Trends Index by Year The Conference Board Employment Trends Index by Year is the average of the related months. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at 89 and the Post-Great Recession peak has been in 2012 YTD at 108 (preliminary). The Pre-Great Recession Peak was both 2006 and 2007 at 122.

“In September, the Employment Trends Index declined for the third time in four months, suggesting that employment growth will weaken further in the fourth quarter,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “The U.S. economy entered a soft patch in the spring and the result has been lackluster job growth, which is likely to continue through the first half of 2013.”


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