Saturday, October 20, 2012

IMF: "Gloomier Picture of the Global Economy"



International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook

The latest IMF World Economic Outlook again seems one step behind. This is really a World Economic Review, not an Outlook. The latest WEO pronounces a slower global economic recovery and qualifies with heightened risk. Risk must always be mentioned by all who predict and dare to wear the prophet's mantle. The prior WEO reviewed in April was titled "Global Economic Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain".

Key Points:
■ IMF revises forecast down, global growth projected at 3.3 percent this year
■ World trade slumps, hurting emerging markets, developing countries
■ Prospects could improve if clouds over euro area, U.S. “fiscal cliff” are lifted

Overall, most of the GDPs reviewed and charted below were adjusted plus or minus 0.1% to 0.3% for the 2012 and 2013 projections.  Notable GDP decreases since the April 2012 World Economic Outlook were:
■ UK was decreased -0.6% in 2012 to -0.4%, from +0.2%
■ Brazil was decreased -0.6% in 2013 to +4.0%, from +4.6%
■ Euro Area was decreased -0.5% in 2013 to +0.2%, from +0.7%
■ India was decreased -0.5% in 2013 to +6.0%, from +6.5%
■ Advanced Economies were decreased -0.4% in 2013 to +1.5%, from +1.9%

IMF Sees Heightened Risks Sapping Slower Global Recovery (October 9, 2012)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented a gloomier picture of the global economy than a few months ago, saying prospects have deteriorated further and risks increased. Overall, the IMF’s forecast for global growth was marked down to 3.3 percent this year and a still sluggish 3.6 percent in 2013.

The recovery continues, but it has weakened. In advanced economies, growth is now too low to make a substantial dent in unemployment. And in major emerging market economies, growth that had been strong earlier has also decreased. Relative to our April 2012 forecasts, our forecasts for 2013 growth have been revised from 2.0 percent down to 1.5 percent for advanced economies, and from 6.0 percent down to 5.6 percent for emerging market and developing economies.

Regional Key Points:
■ Europe: In the Orbit of the Euro Area Crisis
■ The United States and Canada: Growth Continues, but Slack Remains
■ Asia: Calibrating a Soft Landing
■ Latin America and the Caribbean: Losing Some Buoyancy
■ Commonwealth of Independent States: Growth Is Still Robust
■ Middle East and North Africa: A Two-Speed Region
■ Sub-Saharan Africa: A Continued Favorable Outlook

Actual and Projected GDPs by Year









IMF Sees Heightened Risks Sapping Slower Global Recovery The International Monetary Fund presented a gloomier picture of the global economy than a few months ago, saying prospects have deteriorated further and risks increased.



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