Saturday, October 20, 2012

The Conference Board Lowers USA GDP Projections

The Conference Board: The U.S. Economic Forecast

The Conference Board has lowered their quarterly and annual USA GDP projections since last reviewed in April. The 2013 annual GDP projection was reduced a whopping -0.9% to a meager +1.4% from a hopeful +2.3%. This portends more of the same - slow, muddling growth with no restoration of pre-recession economic vitality plus a post-recession and subsequent recovery low. The 2012 GDP projection was lowered only slightly -0.1% to +2.1% from +2.2%, which is still better than the 2011 GDP of +1.8%.

Quarterly GDP projections were also lowered, most notably Q1 2013 which was slashed a game-changing -1.6% to +0.9% from +2.5%. Q3 2013 is just as dismal, projected at +0.8%. Hence the overall annual 2013 lowered projection. Somehow American economic life becomes better in Q3 2013 with an estimated +2.4% GDP. Of additional concern is the Q4 2012 projection of only +1.9%. Q4 can be the strong Holiday quarter, which was a robust +4.1% last year and a comparatively decent +2.4% in 2010.

Actual GDPs are per the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Projected GDPs are per The Conference Board.


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