ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate
Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.
USA Weekly Leading Index
USA Annualized Growth Rate
ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession July 10, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
Watch video here.
U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report
The latest weekly USA Federal Government propaganda and disinformation!
In the week ending October 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 369,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 392,000. The 4-week moving average was 368,000, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average of 366,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending October 13, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 13 was 3,254,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,256,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,269,750, a decrease of 6,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,276,500.
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
The September 2012 USA Monthly Leading Economic Index rebounded +0.6 to 95.9 (preliminary), which is a post-recession high. Overall, slow economic growth is forecast but downside risk exists via the global economy becoming a drag.
USA Monthly Leading Economic Index The 12-month moving average is 95.2 as of September 2012.
Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board, said "The U.S. LEI increased in September, more than offsetting the decline in August. The LEI has been signaling an economy that is fluctuating around a slow growth trend. The six-month growth rate has slowed substantially, but still remains in growth territory due to positive contributions from the housing and financial components. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index also increased in September."
USA Monthly Composite Indexes The September 2012 readings are chart highs for all 3 indicators: Lagging, Coincident, and Leading. The Indexes have been revamped with benchmark revisions (2004 = 100.00).
Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board, said "The single biggest challenge remains weak demand, domestically and globally. The struggle to regain firmer ground – in financial markets, international trade and global industrial output – continues because of weak consumer demand and a lack of more robust business investment."
USA LEI Components: Six of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in September. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were building permits, the interest rate spread, stock prices, the Leading Credit Index (inverted), manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials and manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were the ISM new orders index, average consumer expectations for business conditions, and average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted). Average weekly manufacturing hours held steady in September.
The Conference Board has lowered their quarterly and annual USA GDP projections since last reviewed in April. The 2013 annual GDP projection was reduced a whopping -0.9% to a meager +1.4% from a hopeful +2.3%. This portends more of the same - slow, muddling growth with no restoration of pre-recession economic vitality plus a post-recession and subsequent recovery low. The 2012 GDP projection was lowered only slightly -0.1% to +2.1% from +2.2%, which is still better than the 2011 GDP of +1.8%.
Quarterly GDP projections were also lowered, most notably Q1 2013 which was slashed a game-changing -1.6% to +0.9% from +2.5%. Q3 2013 is just as dismal, projected at +0.8%. Hence the overall annual 2013 lowered projection. Somehow American economic life becomes better in Q3 2013 with an estimated +2.4% GDP. Of additional concern is the Q4 2012 projection of only +1.9%. Q4 can be the strong Holiday quarter, which was a robust +4.1% last year and a comparatively decent +2.4% in 2010.
Actual GDPs are per the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Projected GDPs are per The Conference Board.
Federal Reserve Statistical Release: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in September after having fallen 1.4 percent in August. For the third quarter as a whole, industrial production declined at an annual rate of 0.4 percent. Manufacturing output increased 0.2 percent in September but moved down at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the third quarter. Production at mines advanced 0.9 percent in September, and the output of utilities moved up 1.5 percent. Roughly 0.3 percentage point of the decline in overall industrial production in August reflected the effect of precautionary idling of production in late August along the Gulf of Mexico in anticipation of Hurricane Isaac, and part of the rise in September is a result of the subsequent resumption of activity at idled facilities. At 97.0 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in September was 2.8 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.3 percentage point to 78.3 percent, a rate 2.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.
The September 2012 Employment Trends Index decreased slightly -0.37 to 107.86 (preliminary), which is the 3rd decrease in the past 4 months and a 3-month low. The ETI has continued above the 100.00 benchmark for 21 consecutive months, after 26 consecutive months below (November 2008 through December 2010).
This does not confirm the official Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate of 7.8%. Whether you like or dislike, agree or disagree with Jack Welch, former CEO of GE, he does have the right to question the latest Washington Jobs Propaganda. I don't particularly like Mr. Welch, but just because Washington says something, does not mean it is Gospel.
In fact, I propose to you that the criminals inside the Beltway are chronic liars and thieves and call themselves Democrats and Republicans. There are several economists outside of The Matrix who do not believe the BLS bull, including John Williams and Peter Schiff. At best the latest official unemployment rate was a "statistical fluke", but hey!, how about getting the "fluke" out of the statistics? As the old saying goes, "if you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything".
On October 5, Jack Welch tweeted a few minutes after the Bureau of Labor Statistics proclaimed the September 2012 official unemployment rate was 7.8%: "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers." Well, it is unbelievable and the major media duly reports this disinformation as fact and expects us to believe. The polls show we do not believe the corporate advertising delivery system, aka major media, which is as deceptive as the Beltway Bandits they report about and are in bed with.
The ETI continues at historically low levels, below the overall average of 110.5 since January 2000. However, the reading has rebounded to just below the August 2008 level of 108.54, which was during the decline of the ETI into the Great Recession.
Employment Trends Index by Month The Conference Board Employment Trends Index reached a Post-Great Recession high of 108.50 in May 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 87.78 in May 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 123.86 in March 2007.
Employment Trends Index by Year The Conference Board Employment Trends Index by Year is the average of the related months. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at 89 and the Post-Great Recession peak has been in 2012 YTD at 108 (preliminary). The Pre-Great Recession Peak was both 2006 and 2007 at 122.
“In September, the Employment Trends Index declined for the third time in four months, suggesting that employment growth will weaken further in the fourth quarter,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “The U.S. economy entered a soft patch in the spring and the result has been lackluster job growth, which is likely to continue through the first half of 2013.”
International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook
The latest IMF World Economic Outlook again seems one step behind. This is really a World Economic Review, not an Outlook. The latest WEO pronounces a slower global economic recovery and qualifies with heightened risk. Risk must always be mentioned by all who predict and dare to wear the prophet's mantle. The prior WEO reviewed in April was titled "Global Economic Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain".
Key Points:
■ IMF revises forecast down, global growth projected at 3.3 percent this year
■ World trade slumps, hurting emerging markets, developing countries
■ Prospects could improve if clouds over euro area, U.S. “fiscal cliff” are lifted
Overall, most of the GDPs reviewed and charted below were adjusted plus or minus 0.1% to 0.3% for the 2012 and 2013 projections. Notable GDP decreases since the April 2012 World Economic Outlook were:
■ UK was decreased -0.6% in 2012 to -0.4%, from +0.2%
■ Brazil was decreased -0.6% in 2013 to +4.0%, from +4.6%
■ Euro Area was decreased -0.5% in 2013 to +0.2%, from +0.7%
■ India was decreased -0.5% in 2013 to +6.0%, from +6.5%
■ Advanced Economies were decreased -0.4% in 2013 to +1.5%, from +1.9%
IMF Sees Heightened Risks Sapping Slower Global Recovery (October 9, 2012)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented a gloomier picture of the global economy than a few months ago, saying prospects have deteriorated further and risks increased. Overall, the IMF’s forecast for global growth was marked down to 3.3 percent this year and a still sluggish 3.6 percent in 2013.
The recovery continues, but it has weakened. In advanced economies, growth is now too low to make a substantial dent in unemployment. And in major emerging market economies, growth that had been strong earlier has also decreased. Relative to our April 2012 forecasts, our forecasts for 2013 growth have been revised from 2.0 percent down to 1.5 percent for advanced economies, and from 6.0 percent down to 5.6 percent for emerging market and developing economies.
Regional Key Points:
■ Europe: In the Orbit of the Euro Area Crisis
■ The United States and Canada: Growth Continues, but Slack Remains
■ Asia: Calibrating a Soft Landing
■ Latin America and the Caribbean: Losing Some Buoyancy
■ Commonwealth of Independent States: Growth Is Still Robust
■ Middle East and North Africa: A Two-Speed Region
■ Sub-Saharan Africa: A Continued Favorable Outlook
Actual and Projected GDPs by Year
IMF Sees Heightened Risks Sapping Slower Global Recovery The International Monetary Fund presented a gloomier picture of the global economy than a few months ago, saying prospects have deteriorated further and risks increased.
Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary Disclaimer The following September 2012 employment and unemployment data is for United States federal government propaganda purposes only and bears no resemblance to American macroeconomic reality. The disinformation has been approved by the two-party dictatorship for the pro wrestling theatrics that will ensue to deceive and/or entertain you. The commentary I provide below should be considered fiction related to the monthly Washington hogwash, unless otherwise noted. Ask Big Brother and Ye Shall Receive what You Want to Believe!
The Washington politburo has issued the monthly statistical, political, and market madness called the jobs report. The September 2012 unemployment rate decreased to 7.8%, the lowest since January 2009. According to the corrupt and dysfunctional bureaucrats, happy days are here again or at least on the horizon! The underemployment rate was steady at 14.7%. The USA economy created a ho-hum +114,000 jobs and it was the 23rd consecutive month of job gains. (This is propaganda to mask how dismal the American economic situation is as the USA lurches into the post-industrial era of lower-paying service jobs, higher-paying manufacturing jobs outsourced overseas, robots replacing humans, and eventual bankruptcy).
Annual Jobs Gains (Losses) by Year Using the government's seasonally adjusted data, net job losses were 8.66 million during the 2008 - 2009 Great Recession. Net job gains have been 4.18 million in the subsequent 2010 - 2012 recovery. That leaves 4.48 million jobs to be restored to get the USA to back to even, to the beginning of 2008. This does not count any net increase in people entering the work force since the end of the Great Recession. (This is probably the best-case scenario).
This jobs deficit and the structural shift in the economy to lower paying jobs explains some of why 50% of 2012 college graduates are unemployed or underemployed. This explains some of the reason why 1 in 7 Americans receive food stamps and why half of all households anticipate declining living standards as their incomes fail to keep pace with inflation. Lowered expectations as the American Dream dies... (This data is probably true).
USA Labor Force Participation Rate The seasonally adjusted September 2012 rate increased slightly to 63.6%. The data continue dismal. This is just above the August 2012 low of 63.5%, which was the lowest since September 1981. This means the inverse, 36.4% of all Americans 16-64 years old were not working for various reasons. The all-time high, since 1948, was a 67.3% participation rate in January through April 2000, the peak of the American Empire.
USA Employment to Population Ratio The seasonally adjusted September 2012 ratio increased to 58.7%. This means the inverse, 41.3% of Americans 16+ years old are not working for various reasons. This ratio has been bottom bouncing, very little upward or downward movement, since September 2009. The ratio has been below 60% since March 2009. The all-time high, since 1948, was 64.7% in April 2000.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate
Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.
USA Weekly Leading Index
USA Annualized Growth Rate
ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
Watch video here.
U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report
The latest weekly USA Federal Government propaganda and disinformation!
In the week ending October 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 342,000. The 4-week moving average was 365,500, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 364,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending October 6, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 6 was 3,252,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,281,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,275,500, a decrease of 5,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,281,250.
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate
Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.
USA Weekly Leading Index
USA Annualized Growth Rate
ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
Watch video here.
U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report
The latest weekly USA Federal Government propaganda and disinformation! Not all quarter-end unemployment reapplications were counted in one large state, possibly New York. As a result, this was the lowest claims since February 2008.
In the week ending October 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 339,000, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 369,000. The 4-week moving average was 364,000, a decrease of 11,500 from the previous week's revised average of 375,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending September 29, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 29 was 3,273,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,288,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,279,250, a decrease of 7,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,287,000.
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
September PMI data signalled a modest acceleration in the pace of global economic growth. The rate of expansion hit a six-month high, but remained below-trend compared to that seen since the recovery began in August 2009.
The Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 52.5 in September, up from 50.9 in August. The average reading during Q3 as a whole (51.7) is little changed from the three-year low reached in Q2 (51.6).
Please note that, due to later release dates than usual, September services data for China, India and whole economy data for Hong Kong were not available to include in this month's global PMI. August data have been used as a proxy for the September calculations.
Global service sector output expanded at the fastest pace for six months in September, underpinned by improved inflows of new business and work on existing contracts.
The JPMorgan Global Services Business Activity Index – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – rose to 54.0 in September, from 52.0 in August, to remain above the neutral 50.0 mark for the thirty-eighth month running.
Please note that, due to later release dates than usual, September data for China, India and Hong Kong were not available to include in this month's global services PMI. August data have been used as a proxy for the September calculations.
Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, "The NMI™ registered 55.1 percent in September, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 53.7 percent registered in August. This indicates continued growth this month at a faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 59.9 percent, which is 4.3 percentage points higher than the 55.6 percent reported in August, reflecting growth for the 38th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 4 percentage points to 57.7 percent. The Employment Index decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 51.1 percent, indicating growth in employment for the second consecutive month but at a slower rate. The Prices Index increased 3.8 percentage points to 68.1 percent, indicating higher month-over-month prices when compared to August. According to the NMI™, 12 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in September. Respondents' comments continue to be mixed; however, the majority indicate a slightly more positive perspective on current business conditions.".
ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate
Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.
USA Weekly Leading Index
USA Annualized Growth Rate
ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
Watch video here.
U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report
The latest weekly USA Federal Government propaganda and disinformation!
In the week ending September 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 367,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 363,000. The 4-week moving average was 375,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised average.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending September 22, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 22 was 3,281,000, unchanged from the preceding week's revised level. The 4-week moving average was 3,285,250, a decrease of 12,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,298,000.
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
