Monday, July 2, 2012

USA LEI Rises: "Economy That Is Growing Modestly"

The Conference Board: USA Monthly Leading Index

The May 2012 USA Monthly Leading Economic Index increased +0.3 to 95.8 (preliminary) and another post-recession high. Overall, continuing economic growth is forecast but downside risk exists via the global economy becoming a drag.

USA Monthly LEI The May 2012 reading is a post-recession high, the highest since 2008.

Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board, said "The LEI rose in May, reversing the slight decline in April. Weakness in the average workweek in manufacturing, stock prices and consumer expectations kept the LEI from rising further. Its six-month growth rate remains in expansionary territory and well above its growth at the end of 2011, pointing to a relatively low risk of a downturn in the second half of 2012".

USA Monthly Composite Indexes The May 2012 readings are chart highs for all 3 Indexes: Lagging, Coincident, and Leading. The Indexes have been revamped with benchmark revisions (2004 = 100.00).

Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board, said "Economic data in general reflect a U.S. economy that is growing modestly, neither losing nor gaining momentum. The result is more of a muddle through. Continued headwinds, both domestic and foreign, make further strengthening of the economy difficult.".


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