Monday, July 2, 2012

OECD Leading Indicators: Diverging patterns in economic activity

The overall OECD composite leading indicators increased for the 7th consecutive month, reaching 100.5 in April 2012. The USA led the way with a 7th consecutive monthly increase to 101.2, followed by Japan at 101.0, also the 7th consecutive monthly increase. UK (99.8) surpassed the Euro Area (98.6) for a 5th consecutive monthly increase. The Euro Area has decreased for 14 consecutive months.

Russia (101.7) continued leading the major emerging economies in April 2012, but decreased after 6 consecutive increases. China (99.1) decreased for a 16th consecutive month. Indonesia (99.1) decreased for a 6th consecutive month. Brazil (99.0) increased a 4th consecutive month while India (98.0) continued decreasing.

OECD composite leading indicators keep pointing to diverging patterns in economic activity (June 11, 2012) Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend continue to point to divergence between economies. The CLIs for Japan, the United States and Russia continue to signal improvements in economic activity. However, the deceleration in these countries’ CLIs over the last four months provides tentative signs that growth may moderate in the near term. In France and Italy the CLIs continue to point to sluggish economic activity. The CLIs for Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom and the Euro Area as a whole continue to point towards economic activity slightly below long-term trend. The assessment for China and India has changed significantly since last month. For both countries, the CLIs point towards economic activity below long-term trend. In Brazil the CLI continues to point towards a turning point with economic activity returning towards long-term trend but with a weaker intensity.

About The OECD The 34 OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chili, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, plus the Euro Area and European Union. Accession countries are now are just the Russian Federation. Enhanced Engagement Economies are Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and South Africa.


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