Saturday, July 21, 2012

USA LEI Dips: "Economy is growing very slowly"

The Conference Board: USA Monthly Leading Index

The June 2012 USA Monthly Leading Economic Index dipped -0.3 to 95.6 (preliminary), the 2nd decrease in the past 3 months. Overall, continuing, slow economic growth is forecast but downside risk exists via the global economy becoming a drag.

USA Monthly LEI The June 2012 reading dipped below the May 2012 reading which was a post-recession high, the highest since 2008.

Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board, said "The U.S. LEI declined in two of the last six months, and its six-month growth rate has eased in the last three months. The strengths among the leading indicators have become less widespread as consumer expectations and manufacturing new orders offset gains in the financial, labor, and construction-related components. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index, a measure of current economic conditions, has risen slowly but steadily in the last three months".

USA Monthly Composite Indexes The June 2012 readings are chart highs for the Lagging and Coincident indicators. The Indexes have been revamped with benchmark revisions (2004 = 100.00).

Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board, said "The U.S. economy is growing very slowly. The CEI basically reflects this steady but soft pace of overall economic activity. The LEI is pointing to no strengthening over the next few months, as the economy continues to sail through strong headwinds domestically and internationally".


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