Wednesday, May 30, 2012

USA Employment Trends Index Increases, Signals Moderate Improvement

The Conference Board: Employment Trends Index

The April 2012 Employment Trends Index increased +0.86 to 108.04 (preliminary) and a post-recession high.  This is the 9th increase in the past 10 months. The ETI has continued above the 100.00 benchmark for 15 consecutive months, after 27 consecutive months below (November 2008 through January 2011). The ETI continues at historically low levels, but has attained the early 2003 lows. Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board noted, "the disappointing job gain in April (115,000) is probably below the current trend and should pick up to about 150,000 to 175,000 jobs a month through the summer".

Employment Trends Index by Month The Conference Board Employment Trends Index reached a Post-Great Recession high of 108.04 in April 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 87.82 in May 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 123.86 in March 2007.

Employment Trends Index by Year The Conference Board Employment Trends Index by Year is the average of the related months. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at 89.43 and the Post-Great Recession peak has been in 2012 YTD at 107.29 (preliminary). The Pre-Great Recession Peak was both 2006 and 2007 at 121.95 and 122.6, respectively.

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