Saturday, May 19, 2012

IMF: Global Economic Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain


International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook

The latest IMF World Economic Outlook again seems one step behind. This is really a World Economic Review, not Outlook. The latest WEO pronounces resuming growth, but qualifies with downside risk. Risk must always be mentioned by all who predict and dare to wear the prophet's mantle. The prior WEO in January was titled "Global Economic Recovery Stalls, Downside Risks Intensify".

Overall, almost all the GDPs charted below were increased +0.1% to +0.2% for the 2012 and 2013 projections.  Notable GDP increases were:
■ USA was increased +0.3% in 2012 to +2.1%, from +1.8%.
■ Japan was increased +0.4% in 2012 to +2.0%, from +1.6%.
■ Russia was increased +0.7% in 2012 to +4.0%, from +3.3%.
■ Russia was increased +0.4% in 2013 to +3.9%, from +3.5%.

International Monetary Fund (April 17, 2012) The April 2012 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term.

Regional Key Points:
■ Europe: Crisis, Recession, and Contagion
■ The United States and Canada: Regaining Some Traction
■ Asia: Growth Is Moderating
■ Latin America and the Caribbean: On a Glide Path to Steady Growth
■ Commonwealth of Independent States: Commodity Prices Are the Main Spillover Channel
■ Middle East and North Africa: Growth Stalled, Outlook Uncertain
■ Sub-Saharan Africa: Resilience Should Not Breed Complacency

Actual and Projected GDPs by Year








IMF Sees Progress in Global Recovery, Risks Remain In the latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF says that risks in the Euro zone and rising oil prices are the biggest risks to the economic recovery.



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