Weekly Leading Index: Is the USA Economy Bottom Bouncing?
USA Economic Weekly Leading Index at 4-Week High
The USA Economic Weekly Leading Index rose to a 4-week high of 122.0 for the week ended September 3, 2010. This is an increase of +1.5 from the previous week revised WLI of 120.5. This was the largest weekly increase since the +1.0 for the week ended April 30. The lowest the WLI has been in 2010 was 120.4 for the week ended July 16. The highest was 134.7 for the week ended April 30.
Below is a chart of the latest 52 weeks (1 year) of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, from the week ended September 11, 2009 through the latest week reported, September 3, 2010. As can be seen, the WLI peaked in late April 2010, declined significantly, and now appears to be bottom bouncing. Concomitant with this WLI decline has been the GDP growth slowing, as reviewed and charted here, in a previous post, "USA Q2 GDP Revised Downward to 1.6% (Chart)".
The 13-week, 26-week, and 52-week moving averages of the WLI are now 121.2, 125.6, and 127.5, respectively. The current WLI of 122.0 rose above the 13-week moving average, but is still below the 26-week and 52-week moving averages. The WLI peaked at 134.7, for the week ended April 30, 2010, and the plunge seen on the chart below then occurred.
USA WLI Annualized Growth Rate -10.1%
The WLI annualized growth rate was -10.1% for the week ended September 3, 2010, an rise of +0.1. The prior week ended August 27 was revised to -10.2% from the originally reported -10.1%. The 2010 annualized growth rate low point was -11.0% for the week ended July 23 and the high point was +23.0% for the week ended January 1.
Below is a chart of the latest 52 weeks (1 year) of the ECRI WLI Annualized Growth Rate, from the week ended September 11, 2009 through the latest week reported, September 3, 2010. As can be seen, the annualized growth rate peaked at +27.8% in early October 2009 and began a decline with intermittent leveling off. A negative growth % was reached in early June 2010 and the rate has remained negative since.
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Economic Cycle Research Institute ECRI
*Data courtesy of the Economic Cycle Research Institute*
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