Tuesday, September 14, 2010

USA Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services Up +0.4% in August (Chart) *$363.7B Highest Since April*


USA monthly retail sales increased +$1.515 billion in August

USA Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services Up +0.4% in August

Official Statement The U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Commerce reported today the USA monthly retail sales for August and stated, "The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.7 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 3.6 percent (±0.5%) above August 2009. Total sales for the June through August 2010 period were up 4.7 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2010 percent change was revised from +0.4 percent (±0.5%) to +0.3 percent (±0.2%). Retail trade sales were up 0.5 percent (±0.5%) from July 2010, and 3.7 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Nonstore retailers sales were up 10.5 percent (±2.8%) from August 2009 and gasoline stations sales were up 9.6 percent (±1.8%) from last year."

Cycle History USA monthly sales for retail & food services in August are down -$16.256 billion and -4.28% from the peak of $379.960 billion in November 2007. The August sales are up +$28.090 billion and +8.37% from the bottom of $335.614 billion in December 2008.

Trend USA monthly sales for retail & food services were up +$1.515 billion and +0.417% from July and increased for the second consecutive month.. Sales have increased 6 of the 8 months in 2010 for a net increase of $9.606 billion for the year. The August sales of $363.704 billion continue above the 12-month moving average of $357.660 billion and have remained above since August 2009 (13 consecutive months).

Chart Below is a 69 month chart of USA sales for retail & food services from December 2004 through the latest month reported, August 2010. USA. Sales peaked in November 2007 at $379.960 billion, began downtrending in July 2008 at an increasing rate. The bottom was in December 2008 at $335.614 billion. The recent peak was in April 2010 at $365.997 billion.

Commentary As can be seen from the chart, USA monthly sales for retail & food services recently peaked in April 2010 and the August data has not yet regained this level. The cyclical peak was in November 2007 and a sharp decline began in July 2008.which bottomed in December 2008. A general uptrend ensued until April 2010 and the USA economy entered a slower rate of growth in general beginning in May and June. Since consumer spending, consumption is a significant portion of the USA economy (60%+ of GDP), this pullback in retail sales slows down USA economic (GDP) growth.

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