♦♦♦
Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan: USA Consumer Sentiment Lowest Since August 2009
USA Consumer Sentiment Dips to 13 Month Low
Official Statement (Reuters) "The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary September reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 66.6, down from 68.9 in August. 'Confidence edged downward in early September, as consumers judged prospects for the national economy less favorably,' the survey's director Richard Curtin said in a statement.
Cycle History Consumer Sentiment in September (preliminary) is down -30.1 and -31.3% from the intermediate-term peak of 96.9 in January 2007. In 2004 the index was > 100. The current sentiment is up +11.3 and +20.4% from the bottom of 55.3 in November 2008 (the all-time low).
Trend Consumer Sentiment plunged in July 2010 to 67.8 from 76.0 in June. Previously, sentiment had been above 70.0 since December 2009 - seven consecutive months. Current sentiment of 66.6 is below the 12-month, 24-month, and 36-month moving averages of 71.4, 67.3, and 67.8, respectively. Sentiment dropped below the 12-month moving average in July 2010, after being above since April 2009 (15 consecutive months). Sentiment had been above the 24-month moving average since July 2009, until dropping below in this month, September. Sentiment dropped below the 36-month moving average initially in July 2010 after being above since September 2009 (10 consecutive months).
Chart (Consumer Sentiment) Below is a chart of the latest 57 months of the Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment from January 2006 through the latest month reported, September 2010 (preliminary). As can be seen, the last sentiment peak was in January 2007 at 96.9, a decline ensued, and the latest bottom was in November 2008 at 55.3 (which also was an all-time low). The latest sub-peak was in June 2010 at 76.0. A change in trend to the downside has occurred since.
Commentary The Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment at 66.6 is below the recent June 2010 peak of 76.0 and well below the January 2007 intermediate-term peak of 96.9. Current sentiment is disappointing after the increased optimism of late spring and early summer. I personally believe the partisan, divisive political campaign hyper-rhetoric leading up to the November elections may be a factor in this September decline (just my opinion). Gallup reported this week, "Americans More Pessimistic About Emerging From Recession" and "U.S. Economic Confidence More Negative Than a Year Ago". The Conference Board will report their monthly Consumer Confidence Survey at the end of this month.
Related Articles and Links
Fed Beige Book: USA Economic Growth at Modest Pace (Review) Financial Controls
Fed Chair Bernanke: Pace of Economic Recovery Has Slowed Somewhat (Review) Financial Controls
Fed Chair Bernanke: Moderate Recovery, Outlook "Unusually Uncertain" (Review) Financial Controls
FOMC Lowers USA 2010 GDP Projection (Review) Financial Controls
S&P 500 Regains 100 Day Moving Average (Charts) Matrix Markets
Instant view: U-Mich sentiment falls to lowest since Aug 09 Reuters
USA Weekly Leading Index at 14 Week High (Charts) Boom Doom Economy
USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 9 Week Low (Charts) Boom Doom Economy
USA Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services Up +0.4% in August (Chart) Boom Doom Economy
USA Total Consumer Credit Decreases in July (Charts) Boom Doom Economy
USA Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) Contracts -2.8% in August (Chart) Boom Doom Economy
USA Unemployment Rate Edges Up To 9.6% In August (Charts) Boom Doom Economy
USA Manufacturing PMI Expands in August +0.8% (Chart) Boom Doom Economy
USA Q2 GDP Revised Downward to 1.6% (Chart) Boom Doom Economy
Americans More Pessimistic About Emerging From Recession Gallup
U.S. Economic Confidence More Negative Than a Year Ago Gallup
Follow Boom Doom Economy on Twitter!
♦♦♦
In the long term, the Stock market is overvalued.
ReplyDeleteIn theory as Gold goes up in Value the Stock Market value should drop because it reflects a lack of confidence in the Stock Market.
On top of that Wall Street is Corrupt.
he Treasury Secretary is in bed with Wall Street as are other Cabinet Ministers in the Obama Administration..
The USA is printing money not justified by productivity and Foreign Debt is increasing substantially.It is a mess. How do you Foreclose on a Country.www.inkcartridges-discounted.com
Long-term, I am pessimistic about the USA economy and deficits. There does seems to be a Day of Reckoning in the future. When is that Day? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? The US Dollar is still the world's reserve currency and the USA is still a safe haven during crises. So, the USA does have more time...
ReplyDelete