Thursday, January 17, 2013

The Conference Board Raises US GDP Projections

The Conference Board: The U.S. Economic Forecast

The Conference Board has raised their annual US GDP projections since last reviewed in October. The 2013 annual GDP projection was raised +0.4% to a still slow +1.8%. This was after reducing the projection in October a whopping -0.9% to a meager +1.4% from a hopeful +2.3%. This portends more of the same - slow, muddling growth with no restoration of pre-recession economic vitality plus a post-recession and subsequent near recovery low.

The 2012 GDP projection was increased slightly +0.1% to +2.2%, which is still better than the 2011 GDP of +1.8%. The initial estimate for 2014 is a more encouraging +2.4%.

Quarterly GDP projections were mixed, most notably Q4 2012 was slashed a game-changing -1.0% to +0.9% from +1.9%. The year 2013 is projected to begin slow in Q1 (+1.4%) and Q2 (+1.5%) before the pace quickens in Q3 (+2.4%). This is an improvement from the prior, and dismal, projections of +0.90%, +0.80%, and +2.4%, respectively.

Actual GDPs are per the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Projected GDPs are per The Conference Board.


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