USA Weekly Leading Index Rises to 21-Month High!

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

The current Weekly Leading Index reading of 130.6 is the highest since the week ending April 15, 2011 (131.6) and is well above the 5+ year average of 124.2 (January 2008 through January 2013). The current Weekly Annualized Growth Rate reading of +7.2 is well above the 5+ year average of -1.6 (January 2008 through January 2013).

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Drop to Another Post-Recession Low!

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Current seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims (330,000) are at another post-recession low and well below the 2012 weekly average of 375,000. However, the non-seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims are a much higher 436,766. Claims are usually lower in December due to temporary Holiday hiring. A subsequent spike in claims occurs in January.

(U.S. Department of Labor) In the week ending January 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 330,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 335,000. The 4-week moving average was 351,750, a decrease of 8,250 from the previous week's revised average of 360,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending January 12, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 12 was 3,157,000, a decrease of 71,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,228,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,197,500, a decrease of 12,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,209,750.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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World Bank Projects Slow Economic Growth

Global Economic Prospects 2013: Assuring Growth Over the Medium Term The World Bank projects slow economic growth in 2013. World economic growth is projected to be about the same as 2012: +2.4% vs. +2.3%. Some countries will accelerate growth in 2013 (Brazil, Russia, India, China) while some decelerate slightly (USA, OECD, Japan). GDP growth in general will rebound in 2014 and 2015, but the "road ahead remains bumpy".

High Income Countries GDP by Year The World will outperform the higher income countries and areas from 2013 through 2015. The USA is forecast to outperform the OECD, Japan, and the Euro Area from 2013 through 2015. However, the USA will underperform the World average. Japan is forecast to outpace the Euro Area, which will continue in a recession through 2013.



BRIC Countries GDP by Year China continues to lead BRIC and the World, but at a slowing pace. India continues in second with Brazil overtaking Russia in 2014. All 4 BRIC countries are projected to outperform the World average.



World GDP by Year Developing Countries continue to lead the World and High Income Countries.



World Bank Urges Developing Countries to Safeguard Economic Growth, as Road Ahead Remains Bumpy (Jan 13, 2012) WASHINGTON, January 15, 2013 – Four years after the onset of the global financial crisis, the world economy remains fragile and growth in high-income countries is weak. Developing countries need to focus on raising the growth potential of their economies, while strengthening buffers to deal with risks from the Euro Area and fiscal policy in the United States, says the World Bank in the newly-released Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report.

World Bank President: Growth in High and Low Income Countries Remains Weak "We can't wait for a return to growth in high-income countries," says World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. "So we have to continue to support developing countries in making investments in infrastructure, in health, in education." Four years after the onset of the global financial crisis, the world economy remains fragile and growth in high-income countries is weak, says the new Global Economic Prospects Report.



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USA Weekly Leading Index Surges to 20-Month High!

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

The current Weekly Leading Index reading of 130.4 is the highest since the week ending May 6, 2011 and is well above the 5-year average of 124.2 (January 2008 through January 2013). The current Weekly Annualized Growth Rate reading of +6.1 is well above the 5-year average of -1.6 (January 2008 through January 2013).

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Drop to Post-Recession Low!

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Current seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims (335,000) are at a post-recession low and well below the 2012 weekly average of 375,000. However, the non-seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims are a staggering 555,708, which is a one-year high (week ending January 7, 2012 was 646,219). Claims are usually lower in December due to temporary Holiday hiring. A subsequent spike in claims occurs in January.

(U.S. Department of Labor) In the week ending January 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 335,000, a decrease of 37,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 359,250, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of 366,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending January 5, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 5 was 3,214,000, an increase of 87,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,127,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,195,750, a decrease of 6,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,201,750.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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The Conference Board Raises US GDP Projections

The Conference Board: The U.S. Economic Forecast

The Conference Board has raised their annual US GDP projections since last reviewed in October. The 2013 annual GDP projection was raised +0.4% to a still slow +1.8%. This was after reducing the projection in October a whopping -0.9% to a meager +1.4% from a hopeful +2.3%. This portends more of the same - slow, muddling growth with no restoration of pre-recession economic vitality plus a post-recession and subsequent near recovery low.

The 2012 GDP projection was increased slightly +0.1% to +2.2%, which is still better than the 2011 GDP of +1.8%. The initial estimate for 2014 is a more encouraging +2.4%.



Quarterly GDP projections were mixed, most notably Q4 2012 was slashed a game-changing -1.0% to +0.9% from +1.9%. The year 2013 is projected to begin slow in Q1 (+1.4%) and Q2 (+1.5%) before the pace quickens in Q3 (+2.4%). This is an improvement from the prior, and dismal, projections of +0.90%, +0.80%, and +2.4%, respectively.



Actual GDPs are per the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Projected GDPs are per The Conference Board.

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USA Industrial Production Rises to Post-Recession High!

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Federal Reserve Statistical Release: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in December after having risen 1.0 percent in November when production rebounded in the industries that had been negatively affected by Hurricane Sandy in late October. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 1.0 percent. Manufacturing output advanced 0.8 percent in December following a gain of 1.3 percent in November; production edged up at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The output at mines rose 0.6 percent in December, and the output of utilities fell 4.8 percent as unseasonably warm weather held down the demand for heating. At 98.1 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in December was 2.2 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.1 percentage point to 78.8 percent, a rate 1.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.

USA Industrial Production by Month

USA Industrial Production Trends

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Begin 2013 at 5-Week High

U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

The seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims of 371,000 and +4,000 (preliminary) for the week ended January 5, 2013 rose to a 5-week high. However, this is below the 2012 weekly average of 374,673. The prior week claims were revised downwards from 372,000 to 367,000. The current claims will probably be revised upwards to 372,000+ next week.

The short, intermediate, and long-term trends (13-week, 26-week, and 52-week moving averages) have begun increasing slightly or at least leveled. The 4-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, has increased to 365,750, a 3-week high, after reaching a near post-recession low of 359,000 last week.

USA Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims (seasonally adjusted) The post-recession low has been 342,000 for the week ending October 6, 2012 and before Hurricane Sandy created a spike in claims. That was the lowest since 339,000 for the week ending February 16, 2008. The intermediate-term peaks have been 464,000 for the WE 4-30-11 and 451,000 for the WE 11-10-12.



USA Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Year (seasonally adjusted) Claims peaked during the Great Recession in 2009 at a weekly average of 574,173. Average weekly claims were above 400,000 from 2008 through 2011. The weekly average of 374,673 in 2012 has been the post-recession cyclical low. After only one week in 2013, the weekly average is 371,000 (preliminary).



Weekly Unemployment Claims History (seasonally adjusted) Weekly unemployment claims first reached 500,000 in the Great Recession cycle in November 2008. Claims then reached 600,000 in January 2009, peaking at 667,000 for the week ending March 28, 2009. Weekly claims continued above 500,000 until November 2009. Weekly claims have been below 500,000 since the week ending November 21, 2009 except for 4 occasions.

Annual Revision (seasonally adjusted data) Effective 3-29-12, the data reflects the annual revision to the weekly unemployment claims seasonal adjustment factors. The seasonal adjustment factors used for the UI Weekly Claims data from 2007 forward, along with the resulting seasonally adjusted values for initial claims and continuing claims, have been revised.

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USA Employment Trends Index at Post-Recession High!

The Conference Board: Employment Trends Index

The December 2012 Employment Trends Index increased +0.83 to 109.02 (preliminary), which is a Post-Great Recession high. The ETI has continued above the 100.00 benchmark for 23 consecutive months, since February 2011. This was after 27 consecutive months below (November 2008 through January 2011).

The ETI continues at historically low levels, below the overall monthly average of 110.48 since January 2000. However, the reading has rebounded to just below the July 2008 level of 110.51, which was during the decline of the ETI into the Great Recession.

Employment Trends Index by Month The Conference Board Employment Trends Index has reached a Post-Great Recession high of 109.02 in December 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 87.76 in May 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 123.83 in March 2007.



“After posting a significant increase in December, following an upward revision in November, the Employment Trends Index is improving,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “However, if economic activity continues to expand slowly in the first half of 2013, it would be difficult for employers to maintain the current rate of job growth.”

Employment Trends Index by Year The Conference Board Employment Trends Index by Year is the average of the related months. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at 89 and the Post-Great Recession peak has been in 2012 at 108 (preliminary). The Pre-Great Recession Peak was both 2006 and 2007 at 122.



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USA Weekly Leading Index Reaches 17-Month High!

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

The current Weekly Leading Index reading of 128.3 is the highest since the week ending August 5, 2011 and is well above the 5-year average of 124.2 (January 2008 through January 2013). The current Weekly Annualized Growth Rate reading of +5.1 is well above the 5-year average of -1.6 (January 2008 through January 2013).

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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Peter Schiff: US Government Inflation Propaganda Exposed!

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Peter Schiff

Inflation Propaganda Exposed

The CPI is no longer a tool to accurately measure inflation, but an instrument of propaganda the government uses to hide accelerating inflation from the public and financial markets. Modest CPI increases over the past several years do not reflect an absence of inflation, but a design flaw in the index that fails to fully capture the magnitude of price increases. Central bankers drawing economic conclusions regarding inflation and monetary policy based on this highly flawed data point are making a major policy error.

Note: Prices for the twenty items in our basket rose 44.3% during a ten-year period despite an official rise in the CPI of just 27.5% during the same time frame. But that is using official government numbers to evidence those price increases. However, judging by the inaccuracy of government numbers on other items, such as newspapers and health insurance, the actual rate of increase of the prices of the goods in our basket was likely much higher than what the government claimed!

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No Improvement in USA Labor Participation and Employment Ratios

Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

USA Labor Force Participation Rate The seasonally adjusted December 2012 rate of 63.6% continues near the long-term low. The data continue dismal. This is just above the August 2012 low of 63.5%, which was the lowest since September 1981. This means the inverse, 36.4% of all Americans 16-64 years old were not working for various reasons. The all-time high, since 1948, was a 67.3% participation rate in January through April 2000, the peak of the American Empire.

USA Employment to Population Ratio The seasonally adjusted December 2012 ratio decreased to 58.6%. This means the inverse, 41.4% of Americans 16+ years old are not working for various reasons. This ratio has been bottom bouncing, very little upward or downward movement, since September 2009. The ratio has been below 60% since February 2009. The all-time high, since 1948, was 64.7% in April 2000.



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4 Million USA Jobs Remaining to Be Restored from the Great Recession

Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

USA Jobs Gains (Losses) by Year

Using the government's seasonally adjusted data, net job losses were 8.66 million during the 2008 - 2009 Great Recession. Net job gains have been 4.70 million in the subsequent 2010 - 2012 recovery. That leaves 3.96 million jobs to be restored to get the USA to back to even, to the beginning of 2008 and before the Great Recession. This does not count any net increase in people entering the work force since the end of the Great Recession. (This is probably the best-case scenario).



USA Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



USA Private Sector Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



USA Public Sector Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



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USA Unemployment Rate Steady at 7.8%

Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 155,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care, food services and drinking places, construction, and manufacturing.

USA Unemployment Rate by Month



USA Underemployment Rate by Month



USA Total Unemployed by Month



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Global Economic Growth Accelerates

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global private sector output expanded at the fastest pace for nine months in December, rounding off the strongest quarter since Q1 2012. Trends in new orders and employment also improved, but there were further signs of companies supporting output levels by working through backlogs of work.

At 53.7 in December, up slightly from 53.6 in November, the Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM - signalled expansion for the forty-first successive month. The rate of increase was broadly in line with the average for this period.

Global All-Industry, Manufacturing, Services by Month



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Growth of the global economy peaked at a nine-month high in December, led by a solid increase in service sector output and signs of a muted recovery in manufacturing production. The global economy is therefore entering the new year on a positive footing and, with trends in demand and other forwardlooking indicators still supportive, should maintain this momentum in the coming months."

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Global Services Sector Growth Steady

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

December PMI data signalled a further solid increase in global service sector business activity. Companies benefited from the fastest growth in new orders since March 2012, encouraging many to raise employment.

At 54.8 in December, unchanged from November's eight month high, the JPMorgan Global Services Business Activity Index – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM - signalled expansion for the forty-first month in a row. The average reading for Q4 2012 as a whole is 53.8, the highest since the opening quarter of that year

Global Services PMI by Month



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Growth of the global service sector was maintained at November's eight-month peak, rounding off a positive final quarter of 2012 for service providers. Ongoing upturns in both new business and employment also bode well for growth trends in the opening quarter of 2013".

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USA Weekly Leading Index Continues at Higher Level

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

The current Weekly Leading Index reading of 126.4 is above the 5-year average of 124.2 (January 2008 through December 2012). The current Weekly Annualized Growth Rate reading of +4.9 is above the 5-year average of -1.7 (January 2008 through December 2012).

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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