USA Weekly Leading Index at 15-Week High

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Rise to 374K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

The latest weekly USA Federal Government propaganda and disinformation!

In the week ending August 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 374,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 374,000. The 4-week moving average was 370,250, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average of 368,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending August 18, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 18, was 3,316,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,321,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,321,500, an increase of 9,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,312,500.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Industrial Production Rises to Post-Recession High!

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Federal Reserve Statistical Release: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

This is "seasonally adjusted" which means if you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything!

USA Monthly Industrial Production

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USA LEI Increases: "Slow growth through the end of 2012"

The Conference Board: USA Monthly Leading Index

The July 2012 USA Monthly Leading Economic Index rose slightly +0.4 to 95.8 (preliminary), which offset the prior month -0.4 decrease. Overall, continuing, slow economic growth is forecast but downside risk exists via the global economy becoming a drag.

USA Monthly LEI The July 2012 reading rebounded to the May 2012 reading, which was a post-recession high and the highest since 2008. The 12-month average is 94.8.



Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board, said "With this month’s increase, the U.S. LEI returned to its May level. The majority of its components improved, led by large contributions from housing permits and initial unemployment claims. The LEI’s six-month growth rate seems to be stabilizing, pointing to a continuing but slow expansion in economic activity for the rest of the year. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index, a measure of current conditions, has been rising slowly but steadily, with all four components improving over the last six months."

USA Monthly Composite Indexes The July 2012 readings are chart highs for the Lagging, Coincident, and Leading indicators. The Indexes have been revamped with benchmark revisions (2004 = 100.00).



Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board, said "The indicators point to slow growth through the end of 2012. Lack of domestic demand remains a big issue. However, back-to-school sales are better than expected, suggesting that the consumer is starting to come back. Retail sales this time of year are often an indicator of how the holiday season will turn out."

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USA Weekly Leading Index Rebounds

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Rise to 372K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

The latest weekly USA Federal Government propaganda and disinformation!

In the week ending August 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 372,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 368,000. The 4-week moving average was 368,000, an increase of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average of 364,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending August 11, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 11, was 3,317,000, an increase of 4,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,313,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,311,500, an increase of 6,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,305,000.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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OECD Leading Indicators: Easing pace of economic activity

The overall OECD composite leading indicators dipped to 100.3 in June 2012. This was after being flat at 100.4 for 4 consecutive months. The decreasing USA reading led the way at 100.9, followed by steeply declining Japan at 100.5. A rallying UK (99.9) is now above the plunging Euro Area (99.4). The Euro Area has decreased for 14 of the past 16 months.



A slowing South Africa (100.7) continues leading the major emerging economies in June 2012, followed by a diving Russia (99.5), steadying China (99.3), and leveling Brazil (99.0). A declining Indonesia (98.9) and fading India (97.9) continue decreasing.



OECD composite leading indicators still point to easing in the pace of economic activity in most major economies 09/08/2012 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to point to an easing of economic activity in most major OECD economies and slowdowns in most major non-OECD economies. The CLIs for Japan and the United States show signs of a fading growth momentum.

Editor's Note: Monthly data is revised back a year or more with each monthly release. This results in these composite leading indicators being more of a coincident and/or lagging indicator and not really a leading indicator. What good is a leading indicator if backward revisions are made? A self-fulfilling prophecy and rewrite of the forecast doesn't do much good. Therefore this data appears more useful relative to other countries and for a general trend.

About The OECD The 34 OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chili, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, plus the Euro Area and European Union. Accession countries are now are just the Russian Federation. Enhanced Engagement Economies are Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and South Africa.

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USA Employment Trends Index: "Pace of job growth unlikely to be sustained"

The Conference Board: Employment Trends Index

The July 2012 Employment Trends Index increased a modest +0.43 to 108.11 (preliminary), which is just below the May 2012 post-recession high of 108.23. This is the 12th increase in the past 14 months. The ETI has continued above the 100.00 benchmark for 18 consecutive months, after 27 consecutive months below (November 2008 through January 2011).

The ETI continues at historically low levels, below the overall average of 110.6 since January 2000. However, the reading has rebounded to near the August 2008 level of 108.55, which was during the decline of the ETI into the Great Recession.

Employment Trends Index by Month The Conference Board Employment Trends Index reached a Post-Great Recession high of 108.23 in May 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 87.82 in May 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 123.86 in March 2007.



Employment Trends Index by Year The Conference Board Employment Trends Index by Year is the average of the related months. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at 89 and the Post-Great Recession peak has been in 2012 YTD at 108 (preliminary). The Pre-Great Recession Peak was both 2006 and 2007 at 122.



“The Employment Trends Index increased slightly in July, but is still below the May level, and is only slightly above the February level, suggesting that slow employment growth is likely to continue in the next few months,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “There is no reason to expect employers to rapidly expand their workforce in the current economic environment, and the July pace of job growth (163,000) is unlikely to be sustained.”

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USA Weekly Leading Index Muddles Along

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Rise to 366K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

The latest weekly USA Federal Government propaganda and disinformation!

In the week ending August 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 366,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 364,000. The 4-week moving average was 363,750, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 369,250.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 4, was 3,305,000, a decrease of 31,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,336,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,303,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,306,000.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 28 was 3,332,000, an increase of 53,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,279,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,304,750, an increase of 4,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,300,250.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week(Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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Global Economic Growth Edges Higher Despite Plunge in Manufacturing

JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global manufacturing growth plunged to a multi-year low but global services growth rose to a 4-month high, the net result being a moderate gain in overall global economic growth for July 2012. The USA, comprising 28.1% of the total, continues as the primary driver of world growth and "rebounded sharply". The Euro Area is the primary drag on global growth and contracted for the 6th consecutive month. China, India and Russia all saw all-industry output rise in July.

The Global All-Industry Output Index has been greater than 50, indicating the global economy is expanding, since August 2009, for 36 consecutive months.

JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index The July 2012 reading of 51.7 (+1.4) indicates expansion at a faster rate but is below the February 12-month high (55.4). That was the highest since the Index peaked at 59.1 in February 2011, which has been the post-recession high. The post-recession low was 51.3 in October 2011. Historical back data has been revised, the latest 8 months of revisions are reflected on chart. The general trend is not affected by the revisions.



(J.P.Morgan) At 51.7 in July, the JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – edged higher from June's recovery low of 50.3, to signal a modest increase in output. The rate of growth was nonetheless one of the weakest seen during the current three-year period of expansion.





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USA Sovereign Debt Exceeds GDP: Government Handout Heaven

The USA public debt continues greater than the annual GDP. That is, the government of Republicans and Democrats are spending more than can be justified by government income. Therefore the debt ratio continues greater than 100%. This has been a concerted, long-term bi-partisan effort to reach this pathetic moment in American history. My commentary is non-partisan.

Egan-Jones warned about this in their downgrade of United States sovereign debt to AA. Fitch Ratings reiterated it would cut the USA sovereign credit rating from AAA next year if a credible fiscal consolidation plan, deficit reduction, is not implemented. This is disturbing plus foolhardy as Americans enjoy the free ride while they can. Your share of the United States public debt is $50,688 and add another $1,596 for your share of this year's interest expense if you, a debt-ridden American, prefer not to roll the interest into the debt.

The two-party corporate political system kicks this debt bomb down the road with the blessings of their constituency and financial supporters. This is because a majority of Americans have bought into the fallacy that the government works for them and should be in charge of their lives in the name of the public good, safety, health, protection against the latest terrorists/enemies, and/or (insert your rationale here). Never mind this extravagant spending and ever-increasing government matrix must be charged to the sovereign credit card and not paid for in cash.

Of course, the government is actually for the benefit of the lobbyists, maximizing their profits, and keeping you under control. But just enough morsels are tossed out to the masses so they buy into the myth: "Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else" (Frederic Bastiat). The problem is this fiction cannot sustain itself and ultimately a Day of Reckoning cometh for the USA. The morsels will stop at that Day for American citizens. The government domestic security platform that is being built up rapidly will sure come in handy to keep you subdued, obedient, and compliant when the American Dream crashes into flames...



This fiscal lunacy doesn't stop the federal spending on wars & military budgets, Homeland Security, TSA, NSA, CIA, & police state infrastructure, federal employee & military pensions & benefits, corporate welfare & subsidies, individual tax breaks & credits, social benefits & care, now the Affordable Health Care Act, and all the other free stuff and handouts every last American wants. A significant portion of this spending has to be funded by borrowing (30%+ of every dollar spent) and this keeps the fiction alive that you live in the Land of the Free. The major media, the corporate advertising delivery system, will continue to affirm this make-believe world for you and will act just as surprised as you when the Day of Reckoning arrives.



To perpetuate these unsustainable fiscal and monetary policies as long as possible, Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Bankster-controlled Federal Reserve must keep interest rates crammed down in a zero-interest rate environment, buy U.S. Treasury securities, and print money. He doesn't get one bit of assistance from the President or Congress to stop this madness as they dance to the tune of the lobbyists and show no inclination to balance the budget even for one year. A long-term balanced budget, which doesn't even have to be honored, is impossible as well (remember the Super Committee sham?). If the Fed doesn't perpetuate this Ponzi scheme, the entire American Dream would blow up right now instead of the inevitable "later".

The interest expense on the USA's ever-increasing debt could skyrocket easily to $1 trillion annually if the interest rates got loose from Bernanke! Not only that, some of the Too Big To Fail banks might actually become insolvent from interest rate shock and counter party panic. The entire frigging financial system might meltdown! It's hard out here for the Wall Street Banksters! Ask JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein, and their accomplices about that!



Charts consist of the latest data available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP at 6-30-12), U.S. Treasury (Public Debt at 8-2-12), and U.S. Census Bureau (Population at 8-4-12):
Public Debt $15.921 trillion GDP $15.596 trillion
Population 314.090 million
Annualized Interest Expense $501.157 billion
Effective Interest Rate 3.39%

USA Sovereign Debt Now Exceeds GDP: Greetings From Big Brother

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USA Weekly Leading Index: Continues at Low Level

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) Watch video here.

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USA Garbage Indicator: Economy Is Diving!

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Waste Carloads Volume as an economic activity indicator

One measure of economic activity is total railway carloads of waste. The idea is the more an economy produces the more waste is generated. Therefore a growing economy will generate significant increases in waste and vice versa.

There is a fairly strong positive correlation (82%) between the year over year change in waste carloads and the year over year change in GDP. The current prognosis? Bad. The USA economy is diving.

Waste Carloads YoY Compared to USA GDP YoY

Business Insider: The US Garbage Indicator Is Sending An Ominous Sign For The Economy 7-26-12

Bloomberg: Waste on Freight Cars Rebounds 6-9-10

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Dip to 361K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

In the week ending August 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 361,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 367,000. The 4-week moving average was 368,250, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average of 366,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending July 28, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 28 was 3,332,000, an increase of 53,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,279,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,304,750, an increase of 4,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,300,250.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week(Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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Washington Jobs Propaganda: USA Unemployment Rate 8.3%

Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

Disclaimer: The following July 2012 employment and unemployment data is for United States federal government propaganda purposes only and bears no semblance to American macroeconomic reality. The disinformation has been approved by the two-party dictatorship for the pro wrestling theatrics that will ensue to deceive and/or entertain you. The commentary I provide below should be considered fiction related to the monthly Washington hogwash.

The U.S. government has issued the monthly statistical, political, and market madness called the jobs report. The July 2012 unemployment rate increased slightly to 8.3% and the underemployment rate edged up to 15.0%. The USA economy created a surprisingly strong +163,000 jobs and it was the 22nd consecutive month of job gains. (This is propaganda to mask how dismal the state of America is).

Net job losses were 8.66 million during the 2008 - 2009 Great Recession. Net job gains have been 3.93 million in the subsequent 2010 - 2012 recovery. That leaves 4.73 million jobs to be restored to get the USA to back to even, to the beginning of 2008. This does not count any net increase in people entering the work force since the end of the Great Recession. (This is probably the best-case scenario).

This jobs deficit and the structural shift in the economy to lower paying jobs explains some of why 50% of 2012 college graduates are unemployed or unemployed. This explains some of the reason 1 in 7 Americans receive food stamps and why just 1 in 4 households anticipate an improved financial situation during the year ahead. (This data is mostly likely true).

USA Labor Force Participation Rate The seasonally adjusted July 2012 rate decreased slightly to 63.7%. This is just above the April 2012 low of 63.6%, which was the lowest since December 1981. This means the inverse, 36.3% of all Americans 16-64 years old were not working for various reasons. The all-time high, since 1948, was a 67.3% participation rate in January through April 2000.



USA Employment to Population Ratio The seasonally adjusted July 2012 ratio decreased to 58.4%. This means the inverse, 41.6% of Americans 16+ years old are not working for various reasons. This ratio has been bottom bouncing, very little upward or downward movement, since September 2009. The ratio has been below 60% since March 2009. The all-time high, since 1948, was 64.7% in April 2000.



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Global Manufacturing Plunge Deepens: Worldwide Job Losses Begin!

JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

The United States, Japan, China, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Brazil, South Korea, and Spain continue in manufacturing contractions, which resulted in a deepening plunge of the Global Manufacturing PMI for July 2012. These are 10 of the top 12 manufacturing countries and represent 69.6% of the Global PMI. The other 2, India and Canada, continue expanding in the manufacturing sector. The Eurozone PMI in aggregate  is also in contraction.

In addition, "Job losses were reported for the first time since November 2009. With demand still weak and a sharp drop in backlogs suggesting spare capacity is still available, staffing levels could fall further in coming months".

JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI The current reading of 48.4 (-0.7) indicates a global manufacturing slowdown at a faster rate. The PMI latest peak was 57.4 in February 2011. The post-recession high has been 57.7 in April 2010. The post-recession low had been 49.7 in November 2011 before this latest contraction. Historical back data has been slightly revised, only the latest 8 months of revisions are reflected on chart. The general trend is not affected by the revisions.



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said, "Weak demand and the ongoing period of inventory adjustment pushed the global manufacturing sector into deeper contraction at the start of Q3 2012. Job losses were also recorded for the first time in over two-and-a-half years. Recent cost reductions are providing some respite, but this will be of little long-term benefit if underlying demand fails to pick up."

USA Manufacturing Continues Contracting: “Increasing economic uncertainty”

China Manufacturing Contracts: “External markets continuing to deteriorate”

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