Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Global Economic Growth Edges Higher Despite Plunge in Manufacturing

JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global manufacturing growth plunged to a multi-year low but global services growth rose to a 4-month high, the net result being a moderate gain in overall global economic growth for July 2012. The USA, comprising 28.1% of the total, continues as the primary driver of world growth and "rebounded sharply". The Euro Area is the primary drag on global growth and contracted for the 6th consecutive month. China, India and Russia all saw all-industry output rise in July.

The Global All-Industry Output Index has been greater than 50, indicating the global economy is expanding, since August 2009, for 36 consecutive months.

JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index The July 2012 reading of 51.7 (+1.4) indicates expansion at a faster rate but is below the February 12-month high (55.4). That was the highest since the Index peaked at 59.1 in February 2011, which has been the post-recession high. The post-recession low was 51.3 in October 2011. Historical back data has been revised, the latest 8 months of revisions are reflected on chart. The general trend is not affected by the revisions.

(J.P.Morgan) At 51.7 in July, the JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – edged higher from June's recovery low of 50.3, to signal a modest increase in output. The rate of growth was nonetheless one of the weakest seen during the current three-year period of expansion.


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