Saturday, August 18, 2012

USA Employment Trends Index: "Pace of job growth unlikely to be sustained"

The Conference Board: Employment Trends Index

The July 2012 Employment Trends Index increased a modest +0.43 to 108.11 (preliminary), which is just below the May 2012 post-recession high of 108.23. This is the 12th increase in the past 14 months. The ETI has continued above the 100.00 benchmark for 18 consecutive months, after 27 consecutive months below (November 2008 through January 2011).

The ETI continues at historically low levels, below the overall average of 110.6 since January 2000. However, the reading has rebounded to near the August 2008 level of 108.55, which was during the decline of the ETI into the Great Recession.

Employment Trends Index by Month The Conference Board Employment Trends Index reached a Post-Great Recession high of 108.23 in May 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 87.82 in May 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 123.86 in March 2007.

Employment Trends Index by Year The Conference Board Employment Trends Index by Year is the average of the related months. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at 89 and the Post-Great Recession peak has been in 2012 YTD at 108 (preliminary). The Pre-Great Recession Peak was both 2006 and 2007 at 122.

“The Employment Trends Index increased slightly in July, but is still below the May level, and is only slightly above the February level, suggesting that slow employment growth is likely to continue in the next few months,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “There is no reason to expect employers to rapidly expand their workforce in the current economic environment, and the July pace of job growth (163,000) is unlikely to be sustained.”


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