Sunday, October 9, 2011

USA Consumer Spending Increases to Post-Recession High! (Charts) *Durable goods purchases dip*


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Bureau of Economic Analysis: Monthly Personal Income and Outlays


Official Statement by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (September 30, 2011) Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments - increased $26.3 billion in August, compared with an increase of $80.2 billion in July. PCE increased $22.7 billion, compared with an increase of $76.6 billion. Personal saving - DPI less personal outlays - was $519.3 billion in August, compared with $550.5 billion in July. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 4.5 percent in August, compared with 4.7 percent in July.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (Chart) (Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Below is a chart of Personal Consumption Expenditures, i.e., consumer spending. Consumer spending has increased 13 of the past 14 months and 25 of the past 28 months. Current Personal Consumption Expenditures of $10.77 trillion (preliminary) is a Post-Great Recession high. The Great Recession low was $9.74 trillion in December 2008. The Pre-Great Recession peak was $10.18 trillion in June 2008. Personal Consumption Expenditures includes all consumer spending divided in three sub-categories: Durable Goods, NonDurable Goods, and Services (see charts further below). Personal Consumption Expenditures is a sub-category of Personal Outlays, which also includes nonmortgage interest expense and personal transfer payments.


Consumer Durable Goods Purchases (Chart) (Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Below is a chart of Durable Goods Purchases, which continues below the Pre-Great Recession peak. Current Durable Goods Purchases of $1.153 trillion (preliminary) continues below the Post-Great Recession high of $1.163 trillion in February 2011. The Great Recession low was $997.6 billion in April 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was $1.178 trillion in January 2008. Consumer Durable Goods Purchases is a sub-category of Personal Consumption Expenditures (see chart above).


Consumer NonDurable Goods Purchases (Chart) (Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Below is a chart of NonDurable Goods Purchases, which continues below the Post-Great Recession peak. Current NonDurable Goods Purchases of $2.486 trillion (preliminary) is just below the Post-Great Recession high of $2.489 trillion in April 2011. The Great Recession low was $2.071 trillion in December 2008. The Pre-Great Recession peak was $2.375 trillion in July 2008. Consumer NonDurable Goods Purchases is a sub-category of Personal Consumption Expenditures (see chart above).


Consumer Services Purchases (Chart) (Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Below is a chart of Consumer Services Purchases, which have increased in a somewhat stair-step manner. Current Consumer Services Purchases of $7.13 trillion (preliminary) is a Post-Great Recession high. The Great Recession low was $6.634 trillion in May 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was $6.684 trillion in July 2008. Consumer Services Purchases are a sub-category of Personal Consumption Expenditures (see chart above).


Commentary August 2011 Personal Consumption Expenditures (preliminary) rose to a Post-Great Recession high and is somewhat encouraging. 2 components of PCE increased: NonDurable Goods for the 2nd consecutive month and Services for the 7th consecutive month. Durable Goods decreased for the 5th time in the past 6 months. A continuation of the uptrend is necessary to sustain the USA economic recovery.

About the Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mission: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) promotes a better understanding of the U.S. economy by providing the most timely, relevant, and accurate economic accounts data in an objective and cost-effective manner. Vision: To be the world's most respected producer of economic accounts.

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