Friday, October 28, 2011

USA Consumer Spending at Post-Recession High! (Charts) *Durable goods, nondurable goods, services increase*

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Bureau of Economic Analysis: Monthly Personal Income and Outlays


Official Statement by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (October 28, 2011) Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- increased $72.1 billion in September, compared with an increase of $27.6 billion in August. PCE increased $68.7 billion, compared with an increase of $24.2 billion. Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $419.8 billion in September, compared with $479.1 billion in August. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 3.6 percent in September, compared with 4.1 percent in August.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (Chart) (Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Below is a chart of Personal Consumption Expenditures, i.e., consumer spending. Consumer spending has increased 14 of the past 15 months and 26 of the past 29 months. Current Personal Consumption Expenditures of $10.857 trillion (preliminary) is a Post-Great Recession high. The Great Recession low was $9.745 trillion in December 2008. The Pre-Great Recession peak was $10.176 trillion in June 2008. Personal Consumption Expenditures includes all consumer spending divided in three sub-categories: Durable Goods, NonDurable Goods, and Services (see charts further below). Personal Consumption Expenditures is a sub-category of Personal Outlays, which also includes nonmortgage interest expense and personal transfer payments.


Consumer Durable Goods Purchases (Chart) (Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Below is a chart of Durable Goods Purchases, which continues below the Pre-Great Recession peak. Current Durable Goods Purchases of $1.166 trillion (preliminary) is a Post-Great Recession high, exceeding the previous peak in February 2011 of $1.163 trillion. The Great Recession low was $997.6 billion in April 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was $1.178 trillion in January 2008. Consumer Durable Goods Purchases is a sub-category of Personal Consumption Expenditures (see chart above).


Consumer NonDurable Goods Purchases (Chart) (Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Below is a chart of NonDurable Goods Purchases, which is above the Pre-Great Recession peak. Current NonDurable Goods Purchases of $2.531 trillion (preliminary) is a Post-Great Recession high. The Great Recession low was $2.071 trillion in December 2008. The Pre-Great Recession peak was $2.375 trillion in July 2008. Consumer NonDurable Goods Purchases is a sub-category of Personal Consumption Expenditures (see chart above).


Consumer Services Purchases (Chart) (Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Below is a chart of Consumer Services Purchases, which is well above the Pre-Great Recession peak. Current Consumer Services Purchases of $7.160 trillion (preliminary) is a Post-Great Recession high. The Great Recession low was $6.634 trillion in May 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was $6.684 trillion in July 2008. Consumer Services Purchases are a sub-category of Personal Consumption Expenditures (see chart above).


Commentary September 2011 Personal Consumption Expenditures (preliminary) rose to a Post-Great Recession high and is encouraging. All 3 components of PCE increased: Durable Goods rose above the prior month dip, NonDurable Goods rose for the 3rd consecutive month, and Services rose for the 8th consecutive month. Durable Goods has decreased in 6 months of the past 11 months. A continuation of the uptrend is necessary to sustain the USA economic recovery.

About the Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mission: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) promotes a better understanding of the U.S. economy by providing the most timely, relevant, and accurate economic accounts data in an objective and cost-effective manner. Vision: To be the world's most respected producer of economic accounts.

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