Saturday, August 13, 2011

USA Weekly Leading Index Dips (Charts) *Annualized growth rate continues in lower December 2010 range*

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ECRI Economic Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate
*** Updated August 12, 2011 for the week ended August 5, 2011 ***


USA Weekly Leading Index

Overview The USA Economic Weekly Leading Index (WLI) dipped -0.3 to a 2-week low of 127.9 (preliminary) for the week ended August 5, 2011. The Weekly Leading Index has now increased 4 of the past 6 weeks and was at a 30-week low 6 weeks ago (126.2 for the week ended June 24, 2011).

Trend The short-term trend (13-week moving average) is now decreasing slightly. The intermediate-term trend (26-week moving average) is now decreasing slightly. The long-term trend (52-week moving average) continues increasing.

Cycle History The recent short-term peak was 131.9 for the week ended April 15, 2011. The Weekly Leading Index reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010. The recent short-term low was 126.2 for the week ended June 24, 2011. A Great Recession low of 105.4 was set for the week ended March 6, 2009. 

Weekly Leading Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, including the intermediate-term low of 120.3 for the week ended July 9, 2010, through the latest week reported.


USA Annualized Growth Rate

Overview The WLI Annualized Growth Rate (AGR) dropped -0.4% to a 3-week low of +1.7% (preliminary) for the week ended August 5, 2011. The Annualized Growth Rate has increased 2 of the past 3 weeks, but has decreased 13 of the past 16 weeks, including decreasing 11 consecutive weeks from April 22 through July 1. The AGR was at a 30-week low of +1.6% for the week ended July 15, 2011.

Trend The short-term trend (13-week moving average) continues downwards. The intermediate-term trend (26-week moving average) is now decreasing. The long-term trend (52-week moving average) continues upwards.

Cycle History The recent short-term peak was +8.0% for the week ended April 15, 2011. The recent short-term low was last week at +1.6% for the week ended July 15, 2011.  The Annualized Growth Rate reached a Post-Great Recession peak of +27.8% for the week ended October 9, 2009. A Great Recession low of -29.8% was set for the week ended December 5, 2008.

Annualized Growth Rate (Chart) Below is a chart of ECRI WLI Annualized Growth Rate, including the intermediate-term low of -10.9% for the week ended July July 23, 2010, through the latest week reported. A negative growth % was reached in early June 2010, remained negative for 28 consecutive weeks, and now has been positive the past 34 weeks (since the week ended December 17, 2010).


Commentary Overall, the Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate appear to be bottom-bouncing. The current Weekly Leading Index at 127.9 (preliminary) is above the 30-week low of 126.2 for week ending June 24, 2011 and below the 49-week high of 131.9 for the week ended April 15, 2011, which was the highest since the week ended May 7, 2010 (131.9). The Annualized Growth Rate decreased 11 consecutive weeks before leveling off and increasing the week of July 22. The current Annualized Growth Rate at +1.7% (preliminary) is a 3-week low, but still continues in the December 2010 range and is now well below the 48-week high of +8.0% for the week ended April 15, 2011, which was the highest since the week ended May 14, 2010 (+9.3%). Gains previously attained have eroded. The WLI has been below the benchmark 130.00 level for 16 consecutive weeks and the AGR is near the 0.00% benchmark. The Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate overall continue at levels that indicate some future economic growth even though the both the levels and trend are worrisome. Both indicate a future slow expansion of the USA economy. Per the ECRI, the Weekly Leading Index projects forward approximately 6 months and the Annualized Growth Rate is relative to the WLI and is a 4-week moving average.


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* Data courtesy of the Economic Cycle Research Institute *

 
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