Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Global Services Sector: Growth Rises to 4-Month High (Chart) *Underlying trend remains fragile*

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Global Services PMI by JPMorgan


Official Statement by JPMorgan July saw the rate of expansion of the global service sector improve to a four-month high. The underlying trend in growth remained fragile, however, as the acceleration partly reflected a marked depletion of outstanding business. Inflows of new orders and employment continued to rise, but at slower rates than in June. The JPMorgan Global Services Business Activity Index rose to 53.1, up from 52.2 in June, and has now remained above the neutral 50.0 mark throughout the past two years. Although faster than in the previous month, the rate of expansion was below the average for the current sequence of increase.

Trend The short-term trend (3-month moving average) has reversed to upwards, after decreasing the 3 prior months. The intermediate-term trend (6-month moving average) continues downwards sharply for the 4th consecutive month, after peaking in March 2011. The long-term trend (12-month moving average) continues downwards for the 5th consecutive month.

Cycle History The JPMorgan Global Services PMI reached a Post-Great Recession cyclical peak of 59.2% in February 2011. A intermediate term cyclical low of 50.3% was set in November 2009. The PMI is a percentage - not a total. More about the PMI below the chart.

Global Services PMI (Chart) Below is a chart of the JPMorgan Global Services PMI from January 2010 through the latest month reported. The PMI has been greater than 50, indicating global services are expanding, since August 2009, for 24 consecutive months. The PMI peaked in April 2010 and again in February 2011, which was a Post-Great Recession high. Any reading above 50 indicates the global services sector is expanding.


Commentary The Global services sector expanded for the 24rd month plus the rate of growth increased to 53.1% in July 2011. The Global Services PMI has dropped from the Post-Great Recession high and a 58-month high (highest since April 2006) set in February 2011 at 59.2%. Key points of the current report (Direction, Rate of Change):
● Global Services PMI growing, faster
● Business Activity/Production, Inventories growthfaster rate
● New Business growth, slower rate
● Backlogs of Work falling, faster rate
● Input Prices rising, slower rate
● Employment growth, slower rate


About The PMI The Global Report on Services is based on the results of surveys covering around 3,500 executives carried out in the USA by ISM, and in Japan, China, the UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Brazil, India, Russia, Ireland and Hong Kong by Markit, in Australia by AiG, New Zealand by Business NZ and Mexico by HSBC. These countries together account for an estimated 80% of global service sector output. For the US, data are taken from the ISM non-manufacturing survey which, in addition to the service sector included in the other countries, also includes agriculture, construction, mining, public administration, retail, utilities and wholesale sectors. The Hong Kong PMI also covers construction, manufacturing and retail. Questions are asked about real events and are not opinion based. Data are presented in the form of diffusion indices, where an index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in the variable since the previous month and below 50.0 a decrease.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is a leading global financial services firm with assets of $803 billion and operations in more than 50 countries. The firm is a leader in investment banking, financial services for consumers and businesses, financial transaction processing, investment management, private banking and private equity. A component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, JPMorgan Chase is headquartered in New York and serves more than 30 million consumer customers nationwide, and many of the world’s most prominent corporate, institutional and government clients. Information about JPMorgan Chase is available on the internet at http://www.jpmorganchase.com/.

Markit Economics is a specialist compiler of business surveys and economic indices, including the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) series, which is now available for 26 countries and key regions including the Eurozone and BRIC. The PMIs have become the most closely-watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic trends. To learn more go to www.markit.com/economics.

Founded in 1915, the Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM) is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. ISM's membership base includes approximately 40,000 supply management professionals with a network of domestic and international affiliated associations. ISM is a not-for-profit institute that provides opportunities for the promotion of the profession and the expansion of professional skills and knowledge.

The International Federation of Purchasing and Supply Management (IFPSM) is the union of 42 national purchasing associations worldwide. Within this circle, about 200,000 purchasing professionals can be reached. IFPSM is a non-political, independent and non-profit oriented international organisation, registered in Aarau, Switzerland. IFPSM facilitates the development and distribution of knowledge to elevate and advance the procurement profession, thus favourably impacting the standard of living of citizens worldwide through improved business practices.


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*Data courtesy of the Institute for Supply Management & JPMorgan*


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