Friday, July 15, 2011

USA Weekly Leading Index at 6-Week High (Charts) *Annualized growth rate lowest since December 2010*

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ECRI Economic Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate
*** Updated July 15, 2011 for the week ended July 8, 2011 ***


USA Weekly Leading Index

Overview The USA Economic Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose +1.1 to a 6-week high of 128.4 (preliminary) for the week ended July 8, 2011. The Weekly Leading Index has decreased 6 of the past 9 weeks, decreased 8 of the past 12 weeks, and was at a 29-week low two weeks ago.

Trend The Weekly Leading Index (preliminary) has reversed to a short-term uptrend, though the overall trend has been downwards. The intermediate-term trend (26-week moving average) has leveled off. The long-term trend (52-week moving average) continues increasing slightly.

Cycle History The recent short-term peak was 131.9 for the week ended April 15, 2011. The Weekly Leading Index reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010. A Great Recession low of 105.4 was set for the week ended March 6, 2009. 

Weekly Leading Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, from the intermediate-term cyclical low of 120.3 for the week ended July 9, 2010 through the latest week reported.


USA Annualized Growth Rate

Overview The WLI Annualized Growth Rate (AGR) was steady at +1.7% (preliminary) for the week ended July 8, 2011. The Annualized Growth Rate had decreased 12 consecutive weeks before this week's flat reading and is the lowest since +0.7% for the week ended December 17, 2010.

Trend The Annualized Growth Rate (preliminary) short-term downtrend has stopped. The intermediate-term trend (26-week moving average) is level. The long-term trend (52-week moving average) continues upwards.

Cycle History The recent short-term peak was +8.0% for the week ended April 15, 2011 while the AGR is currently at a short-term low of +1.7%. The Annualized Growth Rate reached a Post-Great Recession peak of +27.8% for the week ended October 9, 2009. A Great Recession low of -29.8% was set for the week ended December 5, 2008.

Annualized Growth Rate (Chart) Below is a chart of ECRI WLI Annualized Growth Rate, from the Weekly Leading Index intermediate-term cyclical low for the week ended July 9, 2010 through the latest week reported. A negative growth % was reached in early June 2010, remained negative for 28 consecutive weeks, and now has been positive the past 30 weeks (since the week ended December 17, 2010).


Commentary The Weekly Leading Index continues a short-term uptrend, but still has decreased 6 of the past 9 weeks. The Annualized Growth Rate had decreased 11 consecutive weeks before this latest flat reading. The current Weekly Leading Index at 128.4 (preliminary) is above the 29-week low of 2 weeks ago, but well below the 49-week high of 12 weeks ago (131.9 for the week ended April 15, 2011), which was the highest since the week ended May 7, 2010 (131.9). The current Annualized Growth Rate at +1.8% (preliminary) is the lowest since the week ended December 17, 2010 (+0.7%) and now well below the 48-week high of 12 weeks ago (+8.0% for the week ended April 15, 2011), which was the highest since the week ended May 14, 2010 (+9.3%). Gains attained have eroded. The WLI has been below the benchmark 130.00 level for 12 consecutive weeks and the AGR is near the 0.00 benchmark. The Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate overall continue at levels that indicate some economic growth, even though the both the levels and trend are worrisome. Both indicate an ongoing slow expansion of the USA economy. Per the ECRI, the Weekly Leading Index projects forward approximately 6 months and the Annualized Growth Rate is relative to the WLI and is a 4-week moving average.


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* Data courtesy of the Economic Cycle Research Institute *

 
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