Friday, July 8, 2011

USA Unemployment Rate Rises to 6-Month High of 9.2% (Charts) *Jobs growth a dismal +18K*

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Bureau of Labor Statistics: Monthly Employment Situation Summary


Official Statement by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (July 8, 2011) Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in June (+18,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in most major private-sector industries changed little over the month. Government employment continued to trend down.

Unemployment Rate (Chart) Per the Household Survey Data, the unemployment rate (U-3) increased to a 6-month high of  9.2% (preliminary) in June 2011, which is 3 consecutive monthly increases and 3 months at or above 9.0%. The unemployment rate had previously been at or above 9% from May 2009 through January 2011, for 21 consecutive months. The Great Recession peak was in October 2009 at 10.1%. The Post-Great Recession low has been March 2011, at 8.8%. Below is a chart of the unemployment rate (U-3) from that Great Recession peak in October 2009 through the latest month reported.


Total Unemployed (Chart) Per the Household Survey Data, the total unemployed increased to a 6-month high of 14.09 million in June 2011. The Great Recession peak was in October 2009 at 15.63 million. The Post-Great Recession low has been March 2011, at 13.54 million. Below is a chart of the total unemployed from the Great Recession peak in January 2008 through the latest month reported.


Total Nonfarm Employment Monthly Net Change (Chart) Per the Establishment Survey Data, total nonfarm employment increased +18,000 (preliminary) in June 2011. This is a 9-month low, the lowest monthly net job gains since since September 2010 (-29,000). The total  nonfarm employment job losses peaked during the Great Recession at -820,000 in January 2009. The best jobs gain subsequently has been the +458,000 in May 2010, which was mostly attributable to the hiring of census workers. Below is a chart of the total nonfarm employment monthly net change from January 2008 through the latest month reported. Total nonfarm employment is a net number = net private sector jobs gain/loss plus or minus net government sector jobs gain/loss.


Commentary The June increase in the Unemployment Rate (U-3) to 9.2% and the drop in the monthly increase (+18,000) in Total Nonfarm Employment continues the monthly deterioration in USA job creation and is disappointing. This indicates USA economic expansion is slowing significantly. Overall, the report indicates a continued weak to very weak, but not yet disastrous, employment situation for the USA. The +18,000 net jobs gain was comprised of +57,000 by the private sector and -39,000 by the government sector.

[Editor's Note] Please note the unemployment rate is calculated by a household survey and the jobs data (increase or decrease) is calculated by an employer survey. The household survey includes self-employed and farm workers, the employer survey does not include these. Overall, the jobs data (employer survey) has continued to indicate insufficient jobs growth to decrease the unemployment rate (household survey).


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