Thursday, May 19, 2011

USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Drop to 409,000 (Charts) *4-week average at 26-week high*

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United States Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report
*** Updated May 19, 2011 for the week ended May 14, 2011 Claims ***


Official Statement by the U.S. Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted Data) In the week ending May 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 409,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 438,000. The 4-week moving average was 439,000, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average of 437,750. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending May 7, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.0 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 7 was 3,711,000, a decrease of 81,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,792,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,728,250, an increase of 750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,727,500.

Trend The short-term trend has reversed to downwards. The intermediate-term (6 months) and long-term (12 months) trends continue downwards, but at a slower rate. The current weekly unemployment claims (preliminary) are above 400,000 for the 6th consecutive week, after being below 400,00 for 4 consecutive weeks.

Cycle History USA weekly unemployment claims reached a Great Recession cyclical peak of 651,000 for the week ended March 28, 2009. A Post-Great Recession cyclical low of 371,000 was set for the week ended February 26, 2011.

USA Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims: 4-Week Moving Average (Chart) The chart below shows the 4-week moving average from the week ended August 21, 2010 through the latest week reported. The week ended August 21, 2010 was an intermediate term peak of 488,000. The 4-week moving average is considered a better, smoother measure of trend. The Great Recession cyclical peak was 643,000 for the week ended April 4, 2009 and the Post-Great Recession cyclical low has been 388,500 for the week ended March 12, 2011.


USA Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims (Chart) The chart below shows the total weekly unemployment claims from the week ended August 14, 2010 through the latest week reported. A general decline in claims had been indicated, with an intermediate peak of 504,000 reached for the week ended August 14, 2010, the beginning of the chart.


Commentary The latest weekly unemployment claims (preliminary) is the 6th consecutive week above 400,000 after 5 consecutive weeks below. The current claims (preliminary) continue above the Post-Great Recession cyclical low of 371,000 for the week ended February 26, 2011. The 4-week moving average (preliminary) continues above the Post-Great Recession cyclical low of 388,500 for the week ended March 12, 2011. The current 4-week moving average is a 26-week high. The short term trend is downwards and the intermediate term and long term trends continue downwards. Claims at  500,000 level is a benchmark, as is the 400,000 level. The 2011 average weekly claims is 411,250 (preliminary).

Weekly claims first dropped below 500,000 in this Great Recession Cycle for the week ended November 21, 2009 at 477,000. Weekly claims have been below 500,000 since November 21, 2009 with only one exception (504,000 for the week ended August 14, 2010). Claims over 500,000 clearly indicate GDP growth is slowing, if not stalling or contracting, while claims less than 400,000 indicate an economic expansion is underway.


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