Friday, May 20, 2011

USA Weekly Leading Index in Downtrend (Charts) *Annualized growth rate at 13-week low*

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ECRI Economic Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate
*** Updated May 20, 2011 for the week ended May 13, 2011 ***


USA Weekly Leading Index

Overview The USA Economic Weekly Leading Index (WLI) was down -0.9 to 128.7 (preliminary) for the week ended May 13, 2011.

Trend The Weekly Leading Index (preliminary) has reversed to a short-term downtrend, continues in an intermediate-term (6 months) uptrend, and the long-term (12 months) trend has continued level for the past 3 weeks.

Cycle History The Weekly Leading Index reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010. A Great Recession low of 105.4 was set for the week ended March 6, 2009.

Weekly Leading Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, from the Post-Great Recession cyclical peak 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported.


USA Annualized Growth Rate

Overview The WLI Annualized Growth Rate (AGR) was down -1.1% to +5.3% (preliminary) for the week ended May 13, 2011. The Annualized Growth Rate has increased or held steady 35 weeks in the past 42 weeks. However, the latest -1.1% decrease is the largest since the week ended June 18, 2010 and the Annualized Growth Rate is at a 13-week low.

Trend The Annualized Growth Rate (preliminary) is in a short-term downtrend, the intermediate-term (6 months) trend continues upwards, and the long-term (12 months) trend is downtrending and still below the late 2009 and early 2010 highs.

Cycle History The Annualized Growth Rate reached a Post-Great Recession peak of +27.8% for the week ended October 9, 2009. A Great Recession low of -29.8% was set for the week ended December 5, 2008.

Annualized Growth Rate (Chart) Below is a chart of ECRI WLI Annualized Growth Rate, from the Weekly Leading Index cyclical peak for the week ended April 30, 2010 through the latest week reported. A negative growth % was reached in early June 2010, remained negative for 28 consecutive weeks until the past 22 weeks.


Commentary Overall, both the Weekly Leading Index and the Annualized Growth Rate are showing signs of weakness. The current Weekly Leading Index at 128.7 (preliminary) is below the 49-week high of 4 weeks ago (131.8), which was the highest since the week ended May 7, 2010 (132.0). The current Annualized Growth Rate at +5.3% (preliminary) is below the 48-week high of 3 weeks ago (+7.7%), which was the highest since the week ended May 14, 2010 (+9.3%). The Weekly Leading Index has reversed and is in a short-term downtrend. The Annualized Growth Rate continues in a 4-week short-term downtrend. Both are in intermediate-term uptrends. The WLI long-term trend is level while the AGR long-term trend is down. However, both continue at very encouraging levels. The AGR is definitely off the bottom reached in late July, and is holding the gains made. The WLI continues below the benchmark 130.00 level. While this has not been indicative of a robust USA economic expansion, and actually was dismal at the bottom in July 2010, the Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate overall continue at encouraging levels even though the trend is of concern. Both indicate an ongoing modest expansion of the USA economy. Per the ECRI, the Weekly Leading Index projects forward approximately 6 months and the Annualized Growth Rate is relative to the WLI.


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* Data courtesy of the Economic Cycle Research Institute *

 
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