Tuesday, February 15, 2011

USA Monthly Food & Retail Sales at All-Time High! (Charts) *January sales continue upward trend*


U.S. Census Bureau: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services

USA Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services at All-Time High in January!

Official Statement by U.S. Census Bureau (February 15, 2011) The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $381.6 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, and 7.8 percent (±0.7%) above January 2010. Total sales for the November 2010 through January 2011 period were up 7.6 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The November to December 2010 percent change was revised from +0.6 percent (±0.5%) to +0.5 percent (±0.3%).
Cycle History USA monthly sales for retail & food services in January of $381.565 billion (advance estimate) are an all-time high, exceeding both the December 2010 prior month all-time high and the November 2007 pre-Great Recession peak of $379.960 billion. The January sales (advance estimate) are up +$45.951 billion and +13.7% from the Great Recession cyclical bottom of $335.614 billion in December 2008.

Trend USA monthly sales for retail and food services continue a strong uptrend. Sales were up +$1.290 billion and +0.34% from December and increased for the 7th consecutive month. Sales have increased 10 of the 12 months in 2010 and 19 of the past 22 months. The January sales were up +$27.492 billion and +7.76% YoY from January 2010. The January sales continue above the ascending 12-month moving average of $368.780 billion and have remained above since August 2009 (18 consecutive months). Monthly sales also continue above the strongly ascending 24-month moving average of $356.962 and have remained above since February 2010 (12 consecutive months). Monthly sales also continue above the slightly ascending 36-month moving average of $359.463 billion and have remained above since April 2010 (11 consecutive months). (The 12-month, 24-month, and 36-month moving averages charts are not shown on this page).

Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services (Chart) Below is a 26 month chart of USA monthly sales for retail and food services from the Great Recession cyclical low in December 2008 of $335.614 billion through the latest month reported, January 2011, which is an all-time high. USA sales peaked in November 2007 at $379.960 billion and began downtrending in July 2008 at an increasing rate. The current January sales (advance estimate) and prior month December sales have exceeded the pre-Great Recession peak.

Annual Sales for Retail and Food Services (Chart) Below is a 8 year chart of USA annual sales for retail and food services from 2004 through 2011 (estimated). Annual sales for 2011 are estimated by extrapolating 2011 actual monthly sales based on a 12-month year. Annual sales peaked in 2007 at $4.454 trillion, dipped in 2008 at $4.409 trillion, and reached a Great Recession cyclical low in 2009 at $4.129 trillion. The 2010 annual sales have bounced upwards from the 2009 cyclical low to $4.398 trillion, which is just below the 2008 and 2009 annual sales. The 2011 estimated annual sales (includes only January 2011 preliminary estimate) are off to a strong start.

Commentary Even though below estimates and expectations, January sales for retail and food services at $381.565 billion (advance estimate) are an all-time high. Last month, December 2010, monthly sales were the previous all-time high. Both have exceeded the pre-Great Recession November 2007 peak of $379.960B. Therefore, USA sales are well above the cyclical bottom of $335.614 billion in December 2008. Annual sales for 2010 were $4.398 trillion, which is higher than 2009 and just below 2007 and 2008. Since consumer spending, consumption is a significant portion of the USA economy (60%+ of GDP), this upsurge should strengthen USA economic (GDP) growth. Along with other USA, and Global, economic data for January reviewed in previous posts, the recovery has strengthened after the Summer Slump. USA Q1 2011 economic activity and growth (GDP) is looking very strong, despite a concern about slowing QoQ from Q4 2010.

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