Wednesday, January 19, 2011

World Productivity Returned in 2010 (GDP Charts) *Projected slightly lower in 2011*


The Conference Board: 2011 World Productivity Brief

World Productivity Returns to Solid Growth in 2010, But Future Trend Remains Unclear

World Economy The Conference Board has issued the annual World Productivity Brief which estimates the 2010 World GDP at 4.8%. However, a small decrease is projected for 2011 with a World GDP of 4.3%. Most national GDPs are projected to decrease from 2010 to 2011. An annual GDP of 3% can be considered a general benchmark and a break-even economy. Greater than 3% indicates increasing employment creation and stronger growth. Under 3% indicates increasing employment losses and a stalling economy. Overall, the 2010 GDP estimates appear encouraging. However, the 2011 projections appear as if a small slowdown in the recovery from the Great Recession is imminent.

Struggling Economies Below are charts of The Conference Board GDPs per the Total Economy Database for 2011 projections and 2010 estimates. Those included are positive GDPs, growing economies. Some economies have not and/or are not expected to fare so well and have negative GDPs. These are (in alphabetical order):
Country, 2010 Estimated GDP, 2011 Projected GDP
Greece: -4.0%, -2.7%
Iceland: -3.6%, +1.5%
Ireland: -0.3%, +1.5%
Latvia: -1.0%, -3.3%
Portugal: +1.5%, -0.2%
Romania: -2.0%, +1.5%
Spain: -0.2%, +0.8%

GDP Projections 2011

The Total Economy Database by The Conference Board is projecting 2011 GDPs, as an annual percentage (YoY), per the chart below. World GDP for 2011 is projected at 4.3%, which is lower than the 2010 estimate of 4.8%. The highest GDPs of economies shown on the chart are China at 9.1%, India 7.9%, and Indonesia 6.1%. The lowest are Italy 1.3%, the Euro Area 1.6%, and Japan 1.6%. The chart is not comprehensive and GDPs were selected for illustration purposes and/or materiality.

GDP Estimates 2010

The Total Economy Database by The Conference Board is estimating 2010 GDPs, as an annual percentage (YoY), per the chart below. World GDP for 2010 is estimated at 4.8%, which is higher than the 2011 projection of 4.3%. The highest GDPs of the economies shown on the chart are China 9.5%, Taiwan 8.9%, and Turkey 7.9%. The lowest are Italy 1.0%, France 1.6%,  Euro Area 1.7% and UK 1.7%. The chart is not comprehensive and GDPs were selected for illustration purposes and/or materiality.

Official Statement by The Conference Board
(January 17, 2011)

The world economy returned to solid productivity growth in 2010, as GDP in most countries recovered strongly from the 2008/09 financial and economic crisis, while employment lagged behind, The Conference Board reported today.

While advanced regions left recession firmly in the rearview mirror, emerging economies continue to drive both global growth and global productivity growth. The U.S. economy remained on a higher productivity growth path than Europe in 2010, but their productivity growth rates may converge, at least temporarily, in 2011 as U.S. employment picks up momentum. Global productivity growth may moderate slightly in 2011 as cyclical effects abate.

“Global productivity growth has recovered remarkably well following the economic and financial crisis,” said Bart van Ark, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of The Conference Board. “It remains to be seen whether global productivity growth will return to its pre-recession trend as employment picks up momentum in 2011.”

“U.S. productivity growth will be tempered briefly in 2011 as employment recovers from its major recession cutbacks but that’s temporary – the underlying productivity growth trend in the United States remains stronger than it is in Europe.”

The data reported today is drawn from The Conference Board Total Economy Database. Widely watched and utilized by analysts around the world, the database is available free of charge for public use. It is updated in January in The Conference Board Productivity Brief and in more in-depth reports later in the year.

2011 Productivity Brief - Key Findings

* As cyclical effects abate, advanced economies’ productivity gains from 2010 will moderate slightly in 2011
* In advanced economies especially, productivity growth will moderate in 2011
* Emerging economies continue to drive global productivity growth
* Long-term trend in world labor productivity shows some signs of weakening
* Total Factor Productivity trend continues to weaken in advanced economies
* U.S. economy remains on higher productivity growth path than Europe
* In 2011 U.S. productivity growth may slow to match Euro Area performance
* Output and productivity growth in China and India held relatively steady through recession and expansion

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*Data courtesy of The Conference Board*

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